6160 Fredericksburg Tpke · Fredericksburg, VA 22580

$369,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,827 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1962 1.73 ac lot Est $515k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover the perfect blend of space, privacy, and potential with this all-brick rambler situated on 1.73 scenic acres in Caroline County. Offering over 1,800 square feet of main-level living, this 4-bedroom, 2-bath home provides a spacious and functional layout ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Major updates completed in 2022 included a new HVAC system, Septic system, metal roof, providing peace of mind for years to come. Inside, you'll find a large kitchen, separate dining room, dedicated office/study, and generously sized living spaces filled with natural light. The partial basement offers additional storage or future expansion possibilities. Surrounded by mature trees and open

Key facts

• 1.73 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1962

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Ownership is Fee Simple
• HOA & community: HOA/Condo/Coop fee details listed as 'Other'; HOA amenities listed as 'Other'

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Detached carport (2 spaces); Two total garage/parking spaces
• Utilities: Well water; On-site septic; Electric service available; Water service available
• Home design: Detached property; Estimated year built; Metal roof; Casement windows; Not in a federal flood zone
• Construction: Brick construction; Permanent foundation
• Exterior features: Backs to trees; Cleared yard; Trees/wooded; Shed on the property

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove; Refrigerator
• Basement: Unfinished basement
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Electric hot water
• Interior features: Country-style kitchen; Dining area; Window treatments; Master bath(s); Open floor plan
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Humidifier

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $370k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-507 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $280k (24.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (41.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (41.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.6% in Fredericksburg — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#299 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, employment A-, housing B+; Watch: crime F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Caroline County Public School District (rural): math 39% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #95 of 131 in VA (top 72%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Caroline High (math 46% / reading 76%, grade C+, #242 of 319 statewide, top 76%, 1,251 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 44% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 318 units permitted in Caroline County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $40k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $37k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Caroline County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$64k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,414 (41.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.87%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 14.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $515,214
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14423 Long Branch Rd	0.53mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,704 (-7%)	11mo	$480,000	$282	44
13408 Mason St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,596 (-13%)	4mo	$394,000	$247	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.63×
• Total profit: $168,998
• Equity at exit: $333,235

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.05×
• Total profit: $522,737
• Equity at exit: $718,634

Cash invested: $103,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22580

• Home prices YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 14.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,184 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,663/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $-507

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,826

Max offer price $280,331

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,475
• Closing costs: $11,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $369,900 Coming Soon 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $369,900 Coming Soon 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $369,900 Coming Soon 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $369,900 Coming Soon 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 11-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $369,900 Coming Soon 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,663 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,033 · $253/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,370/yr (+$114/mo · 82.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,210
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,720
• − Property taxes: −$1,663
• − Insurance: −$1,850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,097
• − Management: −$2,097
• − Depreciation: −$10,761
• Taxable loss: −$12,977
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,115
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,970/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caroline County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100660
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $58,075
• Composite: 43.88/100
• National rank: #2920
• State rank: #95 of 131 in VA

Livability — Fredericksburg

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #299
• US rank: #10735

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 207,206
• Population (ZIP): 4,956

Population outlook (Caroline County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,136 people
• By 2030: 32,973 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 34,255 · +6.6%
• By 2050: 34,843 · +8.4%
• By 2075: 35,134 · +9.3%
• By 2100: 32,184 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 2% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caroline

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.8) · D 45.1% · R 53.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.8pp toward R · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: -8.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.8 2020: R+4.2 2016: R+5.1 2012: D+8.2 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.02%
• Current HPI: 384.3319
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+23.3% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Coming Soon $369,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $340,000 Public Records
• 2022-11-27 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-11-03 Listed $359,990 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-11-03 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-10-17 Price Changed $359,990 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-10-06 Listed $390,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-10-05 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $210,000 Public Records
• 2021-10-28 Sold (MLS) $210,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-10-16 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-09-23 Price Changed $229,950 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-08-27 Price Changed $255,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-07-17 Price Changed $280,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-06-02 Listed $300,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1999-04-11 Delisted — MRIS
• 1998-12-18 Listed — MRIS
• 1997-12-08 Delisted — MRIS
• 1997-10-19 Listed — MRIS
• 1997-09-26 Delisted — MRIS
• 1997-03-28 Listed — MRIS

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,663 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.