202 Arbor Dr · Wylie, TX 75407

$211,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,648 sqft · SingleFamily · 40 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition 2,788 sqft lot $129/sqft · 20% below area Est $265k · 20% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New homes in Princeton, TX! Welcome to Arbor Trails! This gorgeous new Express homes community is located in Collin County, Branch , Princeton area off CR 437. DR Horton, your new home builder, we offer 3 different plans in Arbor Trails ranging from a 2 2.5 1 1,130 sq ft to a 4 2.5 1 that's 1,549 sq ft.

Key facts

• 2,788 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2025

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Arbor Trails South; Located in Collin County, United States
• Financial info: Loan type: Treat as clear; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: Mandatory homeowners association; HOA fees $250 semi-annually; Association fee includes management fees; Neighborhood Management (management company)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Garage (1 car); 1 covered parking space; Garage approximately 11 ft wide by 20 ft long
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Municipal utility district; Energy-efficient features: enhanced attic insulation, HVAC efficiency, programmable thermostat, energy-efficient windows
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; New construction completed in 2025; Smart home features present
• Construction: Frame and siding construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Less than 0.5 acre lot; Sidewalks; Curbs; Concrete; Underground utilities

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (primary bedroom located on second level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms, 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Cable TV available; High-speed internet available; Other built-in interior features; Two levels; 6 total rooms; 1 living area; 1 dining area
• Laundry & utility: Laundry/utility features not specified

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $212k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $138 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (1.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.0% in Wylie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#419 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mayfield El (609 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 56% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1409 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $205,630 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.78%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $264,990
• List price: $211,990
• Delta: -20.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
202 Arbor Dr	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,648 (0%)	0mo	$211,990	$129	100
123 Tall Cedar Way	0.04mi	4/2.5	1,648 (0%)	1mo	$236,990	$144	98
118 Tall Cedar Way	0.06mi	4/2.5	1,648 (0%)	0mo	$226,990	$138	97
120 Redwood Rd	0.05mi	4/2.5	1,720 (+4%)	0mo	$255,990	$149	90
216 Arbor Dr	0.04mi	4/2.5	1,510 (-8%)	0mo	$209,990	$139	84
204 Redwood Rd	0.05mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,489 (-10%)	1mo	$237,990	$160	76
211 Arbor Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,895 (+15%)	1mo	$264,990	$140	68
210 Redwood Dr	0.05mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,895 (+15%)	1mo	$270,480	$143	67
7009 Cottonseed Dr	0.10mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,895 (+15%)	0mo	$264,990	$140	65
6508 Glade St	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-15%)	1mo	$222,999	$159	39
6412 Longspur Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-15%)	0mo	$222,999	$159	38
416 Sandhill Crane Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-15%)	0mo	$221,999	$158	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-31,629
• Equity at exit: $31,608

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-39,600
• Equity at exit: $18,329

Cash invested: $59,357 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75407

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1409
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,082 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,112
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$265 /mo · $3,180/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $138

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,908

Max offer price $211,990

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $284	-5% $211	+0% $138	+5% $64	+10% $-9
Rent	-10% $-27	-5% $55	+0% $138	+5% $220	+10% $302
Rate	-1.0pp $244	-0.5pp $192	base $138	+0.5pp $83	+1.0pp $27

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,998
• Closing costs: $6,360
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
125 Arbor Dr Unit NA Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	2054	$2,097	$1.02	25d	1	0.05mi
213 Arbor DR Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1720	$2,000	$1.16	44d	1	0.07mi
316 Arbor DR Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1648	$1,799	$1.09	25d	1	0.07mi
213 Arbor DR Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1720	$1,800	$1.05	3d	1	0.07mi
120 Redwood Rd Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1720	$2,300	$1.34	2d	1	0.07mi
151 Sesame Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1299	$1,634	$1.26	25d	1	0.09mi
7007 Cottonseed Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1720	$1,995	$1.16	11d	1	0.11mi
7007 Cottonseed Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1720	$1,995	$1.16	8d	1	0.11mi
7018 Cottonseed Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	2131	$2,095	$0.98	25d	1	0.11mi
7012 Cottonseed Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1800	$1,878	$1.04	21d	1	0.13mi
101 County Road 1010 Unit 1010 Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1860	$2,295	$1.23	44d	1	0.16mi
321 Tall Cedar Way Princeton, TX	3.0	3.0	1468	$1,725	$1.18	44d	1	0.16mi
6808 Sunbeam Cir Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1155	$1,534	$1.33	23d	1	0.16mi
252 Jethro Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,595	$1.23	44d	1	0.19mi
119 Sunflower St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,999	$1.54	13d	1	0.20mi
7016 Vining Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1648	$2,000	$1.21	44d	1	0.21mi
6739 Coulter Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1155	$1,500	$1.30	44d	1	0.22mi
7020 Vining DR Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1382	$1,850	$1.34	25d	1	0.22mi
206 Sunflower St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1155	$1,475	$1.28	21d	1	0.23mi
422 Tall Cedar Way Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	1648	$1,795	$1.09	44d	1	0.23mi
230 Sunflower St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,560	$1.20	25d	1	0.23mi
241 Thresher Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1295	$1,850	$1.43	25d	1	0.26mi
6751 Highlands St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,639	$1.16	17d	1	0.26mi
152 Thresher Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,750	$1.35	13d	1	0.27mi
211 Herman Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1295	$1,595	$1.23	44d	1	0.29mi
6561 Alfalfa St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,599	$1.11	44d	1	0.36mi
6550 August Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,695	$1.20	4d	1	0.37mi
6533 Middlebury Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1598	$1,900	$1.19	5d	1	0.41mi
639 Montclair Ave , TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,850	$1.08	8d	1	0.45mi
639 Montclair Ave , TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$2,100	$1.23	44d	1	0.45mi
6744 Teal Cir Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,790	$1.21	21d	1	0.46mi
619 Fisher Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,600	$1.27	44d	1	0.48mi
214 Wheatgrass Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,699	$1.21	44d	1	0.49mi
538 Montclair Ave Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,775	$1.41	11d	1	0.49mi
6445 Middlebury Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,649	$1.30	8d	1	0.49mi
545 Holleman Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,750	$1.19	44d	1	0.50mi
427 Bower DR Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,850	$1.16	25d	1	0.51mi
402 Harvest St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,665	$1.16	13d	1	0.53mi
613 Holleman Dr , TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,000	$1.59	25d	1	0.55mi
416 Finch CIR Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,350	$1.07	44d	1	0.56mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $211,990 Pending 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $211,990 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $211,990 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $211,990 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $211,990 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $211,990 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $211,990 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-05-16
   price $221,990 1306-char remark
9. 2026-05-13
   price $226,990 1306-char remark
10. 2026-05-06
    price $226,990 304-char remark
11. 2026-05-02
    price $221,990 1306-char remark
12. 2026-04-29
    listed $236,990 Active 304-char remark
13. 2026-04-28
    listed $231,990 Active 1306-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,982
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,875
• − Property taxes: −$3,180
• − Insurance: −$1,060
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,999
• − Management: −$1,999
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$6,167
• Taxable loss: −$1,801
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$432
• After-tax cash flow: $2,084/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new home in Arbor Trails, Princeton, TX, is move-in ready with no visible signs of wear or damage. It offers a modern design and ample space, making it ideal for both resale and rental.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Princeton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,827
• Composite: 42.44/100
• National rank: #3226
• State rank: #188 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wylie

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #419
• US rank: #8623

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 69,325
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,171
• Household income: $100,037
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 368.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 17% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Mexico
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.99%
• Current HPI: 238.9373
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $211,990 NTREIS
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $206,990 NTREIS
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $221,990 NTREIS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $226,990 NTREIS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $236,990 NTREIS