1219 Blue Spruce Ln · Wilmington, OH 45177

$350,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,802 sqft · SingleFamily · 220 Days on market

Poor condition 8,350 sqft lot $194/sqft · 7% above area Est $326k · 7% over $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• ARV discount +4.3/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Offering approximately 1,802 square feet, the Mayfair II expands upon Cristo Homes popular ranch design with even more space, comfort, and flexibility. This floor plan is perfect for buyers searching for new ranch homes in Lebanon, Carlisle, Wilmington, or Trenton, OH, with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 9-foot ceilings throughout. The open kitchen features an island, pantry, and 42-inch cabinets, creating a seamless flow into the generous great room, ideal for entertaining or relaxing. The grand bedroom includes a private bath with a tub-shower unit, vanity, and a huge walk-in closet, making it an appealing choice for buyers looking for new construction homes near Dayton and Cincinnati with modern convenience. Additional features include a hall linen closet, first-floor laundry, and a two-car garage. Depending on the community, buyers may choose between an optional slab or basement foundation. The Mayfair II combines style, comfort, and spacious single-story living; an excellent option for those exploring new homes in Warren, Butler, or Clinton County.

Key facts

• 8,350 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 220 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $811 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $350k).
• Recommended offer: $308k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 6.2% in Wilmington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#202 in OH, #3,127 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Wilmington City (town): math 42% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #492 of 656 in OH (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 119 units permitted in Clinton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,125/mo this rent would consume 70% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clinton County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 220 days — a 12% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $308,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 220 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.93%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $326,475
• List price: $350,000
• Delta: 7.21%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1300 Blue Spruce Ln	0.00mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,797 (-0%)	14mo	$426,244	$237	79
432 Red Maple Ln	0.15mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,802 (0%)	12mo	$449,940	$250	74
21 Garden Cir	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,853 (+3%)	11mo	$314,900	$170	56
1985 St Rt 730	0.70mi	3/3.0	1,860 (+3%)	4mo	$305,000	$164	55
1282 Ridge Rd	0.60mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,896 (+5%)	18mo	$250,000	$132	41
97 Glenwood Cir	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,596 (-11%)	22mo	$250,000	$157	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-4,995
• Equity at exit: $52,186

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $62,470
• Equity at exit: $30,262

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45177

• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,125 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$438 /mo · $5,250/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$866
• Net cashflow: $811

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,098

Max offer price $350,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,053	-5% $932	+0% $811	+5% $690	+10% $569
Rent	-10% $485	-5% $648	+0% $811	+5% $974	+10% $1,137
Rate	-1.0pp $987	-0.5pp $900	base $811	+0.5pp $720	+1.0pp $628

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
109 Southwind Blvd Wilmington, OH	3.0	2.0	1344	$4,995	$3.72	3d	1	0.64mi
121 Southwind Blvd Wilmington, OH	3.0	2.0	1344	$4,995	$3.72	3d	1	0.65mi
229 Taylor Dr Wilmington, OH	3.0	2.0	1242	$2,000	$1.61	12d	1	0.73mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $350,000 Active 220 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $350,000 Active 219 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $350,000 Active 218 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $350,000 Active 217 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $350,000 Active 215 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $350,000 Active 212 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $350,000 Active 211 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $350,000 Active 210 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $350,000 Active 209 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $350,000 Active 206 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $350,000 Active 205 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $350,000 Active 204 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $350,000 Active 203 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $350,000 Active 202 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $350,000 Active 201 DOM
16. 2026-02-13
    price $368,470 1067-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1067 chars)

    Offering approximately 1,802 square feet, the Mayfair II expands upon Cristo Homes popular ranch design with even more space, comfort, and flexibility. This floor plan is perfect for buyers searching for new ranch homes in Lebanon, Carlisle, Wilmington, or Trenton, OH, with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 9-foot ceilings throughout. The open kitchen features an island, pantry, and 42-inch cabinets, creating a seamless flow into the generous great room, ideal for entertaining or relaxing. The grand bedroom includes a private bath with a tub-shower unit, vanity, and a huge walk-in closet, making it an appealing choice for buyers looking for new construction homes near Dayton and Cincinnati with modern convenience. Additional features include a hall linen closet, first-floor laundry, and a two-car garage. Depending on the community, buyers may choose between an optional slab or basement foundation. The Mayfair II combines style, comfort, and spacious single-story living; an excellent option for those exploring new homes in Warren, Butler, or Clinton County.

17. 2026-02-11
    price $368,965 1067-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1067 chars)

    Offering approximately 1,802 square feet, the Mayfair II expands upon Cristo Homes popular ranch design with even more space, comfort, and flexibility. This floor plan is perfect for buyers searching for new ranch homes in Lebanon, Carlisle, Wilmington, or Trenton, OH, with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 9-foot ceilings throughout. The open kitchen features an island, pantry, and 42-inch cabinets, creating a seamless flow into the generous great room, ideal for entertaining or relaxing. The grand bedroom includes a private bath with a tub-shower unit, vanity, and a huge walk-in closet, making it an appealing choice for buyers looking for new construction homes near Dayton and Cincinnati with modern convenience. Additional features include a hall linen closet, first-floor laundry, and a two-car garage. Depending on the community, buyers may choose between an optional slab or basement foundation. The Mayfair II combines style, comfort, and spacious single-story living; an excellent option for those exploring new homes in Warren, Butler, or Clinton County.

18. 2026-01-01
    price $369,215 1067-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1067 chars)

    Offering approximately 1,802 square feet, the Mayfair II expands upon Cristo Homes popular ranch design with even more space, comfort, and flexibility. This floor plan is perfect for buyers searching for new ranch homes in Lebanon, Carlisle, Wilmington, or Trenton, OH, with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 9-foot ceilings throughout. The open kitchen features an island, pantry, and 42-inch cabinets, creating a seamless flow into the generous great room, ideal for entertaining or relaxing. The grand bedroom includes a private bath with a tub-shower unit, vanity, and a huge walk-in closet, making it an appealing choice for buyers looking for new construction homes near Dayton and Cincinnati with modern convenience. Additional features include a hall linen closet, first-floor laundry, and a two-car garage. Depending on the community, buyers may choose between an optional slab or basement foundation. The Mayfair II combines style, comfort, and spacious single-story living; an excellent option for those exploring new homes in Warren, Butler, or Clinton County.

19. 2025-11-18
    price $368,215 1067-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1067 chars)

    Offering approximately 1,802 square feet, the Mayfair II expands upon Cristo Homes popular ranch design with even more space, comfort, and flexibility. This floor plan is perfect for buyers searching for new ranch homes in Lebanon, Carlisle, Wilmington, or Trenton, OH, with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 9-foot ceilings throughout. The open kitchen features an island, pantry, and 42-inch cabinets, creating a seamless flow into the generous great room, ideal for entertaining or relaxing. The grand bedroom includes a private bath with a tub-shower unit, vanity, and a huge walk-in closet, making it an appealing choice for buyers looking for new construction homes near Dayton and Cincinnati with modern convenience. Additional features include a hall linen closet, first-floor laundry, and a two-car garage. Depending on the community, buyers may choose between an optional slab or basement foundation. The Mayfair II combines style, comfort, and spacious single-story living; an excellent option for those exploring new homes in Warren, Butler, or Clinton County.

20. 2025-11-10
    listed $368,110 Active 1067-char remark

    Show marketing remark (384 chars)

    The Mayfair II Design by Cristo Homes! This beautiful 3 bed, 2 bath ranch boasts 1802 sqft of living space! Eat-in kitchen with granite countertops + pantry offers a full view to the Great Rm & Dining Area. Split bedroom layout. Primary suite w adjoining bath ft. double vanity and walk-in closet. Convenient first floor laundry! Mudroom. 2-car garage. Tile Flooring in Bathrooms.

21. 2025-11-10
    listed $368,110 Active 384-char remark

    Show marketing remark (384 chars)

    The Mayfair II Design by Cristo Homes! This beautiful 3 bed, 2 bath ranch boasts 1802 sqft of living space! Eat-in kitchen with granite countertops + pantry offers a full view to the Great Rm & Dining Area. Split bedroom layout. Primary suite w adjoining bath ft. double vanity and walk-in closet. Convenient first floor laundry! Mudroom. 2-car garage. Tile Flooring in Bathrooms.

22. 2025-11-10
    listed $368,110 Active

    Show marketing remark (384 chars)

    The Mayfair II Design by Cristo Homes! This beautiful 3 bed, 2 bath ranch boasts 1802 sqft of living space! Eat-in kitchen with granite countertops + pantry offers a full view to the Great Rm & Dining Area. Split bedroom layout. Primary suite w adjoining bath ft. double vanity and walk-in closet. Convenient first floor laundry! Mudroom. 2-car garage. Tile Flooring in Bathrooms.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,497
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$5,250
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,960
• − Management: −$3,960
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable income: $4,442
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,066
• After-tax cash flow: $8,663/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property is under extensive construction and requires significant work to be move-in ready. Full completion will significantly increase its value for resale and rental.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Roofing materials visible
• Major exterior siding — Exterior siding and framing visible
• Major interior walls — Interior walls and framing visible
• Major flooring — Flooring materials visible
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No HVAC or mechanicals visible

Value-add opportunities

• Both Complete construction and finishing — Fully finished home will attract buyers and renters
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Improved landscaping will enhance curb appeal and attract buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Roofing materials visible	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Exterior siding and framing visible	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · Interior walls and framing visible	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Flooring materials visible	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No HVAC or mechanicals visible	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Complete construction and finishing — Fully finished home will attract buyers and renters ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Improved landscaping will enhance curb appeal and attract buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wilmington City
• NCES district ID: 3904511
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $43,201
• Composite: 39.2/100
• National rank: #4020
• State rank: #492 of 656 in OH

Livability — Wilmington

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #202
• US rank: #3127

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wilmington, OH
• County: Clinton · 46,911 people
• Population (ZIP): 22,442
• Household income: $70,483
• Rent vs Own: 30.6% rent · 69.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 9.5

Population outlook (Clinton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 41,352 people
• By 2030: 40,831 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 39,049 · -5.6%
• By 2050: 36,408 · -12.0%
• By 2075: 29,652 · -28.3%
• By 2100: 20,736 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 3% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clinton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.6) · D 22.3% · R 76.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.3pp toward R · 2008: -30.3pp · 2024: -54.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.6 2020: R+52.6 2016: R+52.6 2012: R+35.2 2008: R+30.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -150.35%
• Current HPI: 238.9182
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+0.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $368,470 Zillow
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $368,965 Zillow
• 2026-01-01 Price Changed $369,215 Zillow
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $368,215 Zillow
• 2025-11-10 Listed $368,110 Zillow
• 2025-11-10 Listed $368,110 Dayton MLS
• 2025-11-10 Listed $368,110 Cincy MLS