2117 Jesse James Ln · Burleson, TX 76058

$217,499

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,311 sqft · SingleFamily · 7 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 6,011 sqft lot Est $227k · at est. $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

LENNAR - Frontier - Oakridge Floorplan - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Prices, dimensions and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Municipal Utility District: No; Green/energy efficiency features including enhanced attic insulation, energy-efficient appliances, insulation, low-flow commode, and mechanical fresh air
• Financial info: Accepted financing: Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA
• HOA & community: Mandatory association; Annual association fee of 600; Association provides full use of facilities and grounds maintenance; HOA managed by Vision Communities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway parking (private)
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s); Fire alarm; Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: City water; City sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One-story; Entry level: One; Security features include carbon monoxide detectors, fire alarm, smoke detectors, and other devices; Smart home features present
• Construction: Composition roof; Slab foundation; Year built: 2026
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Landscaped yard; Curb and sidewalk

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on main level); Primary bedroom on main level with dual sinks
• Flooring: Carpet; Other
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Built-in features; Cable TV available; Decorative lighting; High-speed internet available; One living area; One dining area; Total room count: 6; Levels: One
• Laundry & utility: Appliances included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $217k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $540 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $217k).
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.5% in Burleson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#53 in TX, #2,133 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Joshua ISD (rural): math 52% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #139 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 420 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,499

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.65%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $226,803
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2200 Doc Holiday Rd	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-1%)	1mo	$246,999	$190	95
2152 Jesse James Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+11%)	1mo	$228,999	$158	79
2144 Jesse James Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+11%)	1mo	$219,849	$150	77
2428 County Road 911	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,442 (+10%)	1mo	$390,000	$270	53
2133 W Fm 917	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,456 (+11%)	9mo	$245,000	$168	51
5815 Thousand Oaks Dr	0.69mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,316 (+0%)	13mo	$227,250	$173	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-754
• Equity at exit: $32,430

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $43,951
• Equity at exit: $18,805

Cash invested: $60,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76058

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Active inventory: 420
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,650 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,141
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$272 /mo · $3,262/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$556
• Net cashflow: $540

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,966

Max offer price $217,499

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $691	-5% $616	+0% $540	+5% $465	+10% $390
Rent	-10% $331	-5% $436	+0% $540	+5% $645	+10% $750
Rate	-1.0pp $650	-0.5pp $596	base $540	+0.5pp $484	+1.0pp $427

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,375
• Closing costs: $6,525
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1612 Caddo Peak Trl Joshua, TX	3.0	3.0	1504	$2,650	$1.76	11d	1	1.04mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   listed $217,499 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,183
• − Property taxes: −$3,262
• − Insurance: −$1,087
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,544
• − Management: −$2,544
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$6,327
• Taxable income: $3,251
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$780
• After-tax cash flow: $5,705/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with a modern and open floor plan. It is move-in ready with a few updates that can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Installing new flooring in the bathrooms — New flooring can improve the look and feel of the bathrooms.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality.
• Both Adding a smart home system — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Installing new flooring in the bathrooms — New flooring can improve the look and feel of the bathrooms. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality. ↑
• Both Adding a smart home system — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Joshua ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824930
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,696
• Composite: 44.65/100
• National rank: #2769
• State rank: #139 of 826 in TX

Livability — Burleson

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #2133

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Burleson, TX
• City population: 81,549
• Population (ZIP): 21,531

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.22%
• Current HPI: 265.6513
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $217,499 NTREIS