145 Firefly Dr · Carter, TX 76082

$173,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 171 Days on market

Built 2020 1.00 ac lot $142/sqft · 29% below area Est $245k · 29% under ↓ 14% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Escape the noise and enjoy the calm of this adorable 3 bedroom home situated on a spacious one-acre lot. Located in a quiet, desirable gated community, this property offers privacy, open space, and endless potential. The open concept makes for great entertaining, natural lighting, improves flow, and maximizes usable space. Backyard is partially fenced off, front yard has an adorable covered patio perfect for morning coffee and your after dinner drinks. Plenty of room for outdoor entertaining, pets, hobbies, or future improvements, all while enjoying the tranquility of country style living. Property is listed below market value for a quick sale. Property is being sold as is, so come and see this home before its gone!

Key facts

• Gated community
• One acre lot
• Open concept

Tags

• ONE ACRE LOT
• GATED COMMUNITY
• OPEN CONCEPT
• COVERED PATIO
• OUTDOOR ENTERTAINING
• COUNTRY STYLE LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $173k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $227 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $173k).
• Recommended offer: $152k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 2.5% in Carter — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Springtown ISD (town): math 36% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #435 of 826 in TX (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 519 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 437 units permitted in Parker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Parker County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 171 days — a 12% lower offer ($152k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $152,240 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 171 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.63%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $244,900
• List price: $173,000
• Delta: -29.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
328 Hometown Way	0.18mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,152 (-5%)	11mo	$200,000	$174	67
217 Farmhouse Rd	0.23mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,152 (-5%)	17mo	$189,900	$165	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-13,495
• Equity at exit: $25,795

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $7,133
• Equity at exit: $14,958

Cash invested: $48,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76082

• Home prices YoY: -21.5%
• Active inventory: 519
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,865 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$907
• Tax from tax record: −$266 /mo · $3,196/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $227

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,577

Max offer price $173,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,250
• Closing costs: $5,190
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $173,000 Active 171 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $173,000 Active 170 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $173,000 Active 169 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $173,000 Active 168 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $173,000 Active 166 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $173,000 Active 165 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   price $173,000 Active 162 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Active 162 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $180,000 Active 161 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $180,000 Active 160 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $180,000 Active 157 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $180,000 Active 156 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 155 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 154 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 153 DOM
16. 2026-01-28
    price $180,000 726-char remark

    Show marketing remark (726 chars)

    Escape the noise and enjoy the calm of this adorable 3 bedroom home situated on a spacious one-acre lot. Located in a quiet, desirable gated community, this property offers privacy, open space, and endless potential. The open concept makes for great entertaining, natural lighting, improves flow, and maximizes usable space. Backyard is partially fenced off, front yard has an adorable covered patio perfect for morning coffee and your after dinner drinks. Plenty of room for outdoor entertaining, pets, hobbies, or future improvements, all while enjoying the tranquility of country style living. Property is listed below market value for a quick sale. Property is being sold as is, so come and see this home before its gone!

17. 2025-12-29
    listed $190,000 Active 726-char remark

    Show marketing remark (726 chars)

    Escape the noise and enjoy the calm of this adorable 3 bedroom home situated on a spacious one-acre lot. Located in a quiet, desirable gated community, this property offers privacy, open space, and endless potential. The open concept makes for great entertaining, natural lighting, improves flow, and maximizes usable space. Backyard is partially fenced off, front yard has an adorable covered patio perfect for morning coffee and your after dinner drinks. Plenty of room for outdoor entertaining, pets, hobbies, or future improvements, all while enjoying the tranquility of country style living. Property is listed below market value for a quick sale. Property is being sold as is, so come and see this home before its gone!

18. 2025-11-11
    historical
19. 2025-07-22
    price $185,000
20. 2025-07-15
    price $195,000
21. 2025-06-24
    listed $209,000 Active
22. 2021-03-31
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,196 · $266/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,196 · $266/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,375
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,691
• − Property taxes: −$3,196
• − Insurance: −$865
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,790
• − Management: −$1,790
• − Depreciation: −$5,033
• Taxable income: $10
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2
• After-tax cash flow: $2,726/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springtown ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841280
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $56,136
• Composite: 33.41/100
• National rank: #5474
• State rank: #435 of 826 in TX

Livability — Carter

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Parker County · 144,797 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,880
• Household income: $92,485
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 333.0

Population outlook (Parker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 147,426 people
• By 2030: 157,863 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 177,519 · +20.4%
• By 2050: 194,786 · +32.1%
• By 2075: 238,799 · +62.0%
• By 2100: 264,126 · +79.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Parker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.4) · D 16.4% · R 82.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -55.2pp · 2024: -66.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.4 2020: R+64.4 2016: R+67.5 2012: R+65.8 2008: R+55.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.65%
• Current HPI: 262.1991
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $180,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-29 Listed $190,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-11 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $185,000 NTREIS
• 2025-07-15 Price Changed $195,000 NTREIS
• 2025-06-24 Listed $209,000 NTREIS
• 2021-03-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+24.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,196 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.