16101 N EL Mirage Rd #422 · El Mirage, AZ 85335

$49,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured · 57 Days on market

Built 1997 $43/sqft · 39% below area Est $81k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SITUATED ON A PRIME CORNER LOT, (#422) THIS AFFORDABLE HOME HAS WALL TO WALL LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING. IT'S AN ''OPEN CONCEPT'' FLOORPLAN WITH SOARING VAULTED CEILINGS. THE GREAT ROOM'S LARGE WINDOWS CAPTURE COPIOUS NATURAL LIGHT, AND THE USER-FRIENDLY KITCHEN BOASTS A LARGE PENINSULA, 30'' OVEN / RANGE, HANDY PANTRY, AND FULL SIZE FRIG, PLUS GENEROUS KITCHEN STORAGE. PRIMARY BEDROOM FEATURES A CLOSET OVER 10' WIDE, AND PRIMARY BATH HAS LO-THRESHOLD SHOWER, WITH GLASS DOORS, AND A FULL-LENGTH LINEN PANTRY. GUEST BEDROOM IN CLOSE RANGE OF THE HALL BATH, WITH TUB. LAUNDRY ROOM JUST OFF KITCHEN. PRIVATE BLOCK WALLED REAR YARD, WITH LARGE PATIO, AND JUMBO-SIZED STORAGE HUT. SHADY DOUBLE CARPORT FOR YOUR VEHICLES. STOP BY, AND BE SMITTEN!

Key facts

• Large windows
• Large peninsula
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• OPEN CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• LARGE WINDOWS
• USER-FRIENDLY KITCHEN
• LARGE PENINSULA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $49k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $966 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $49k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.9% vs local median 4.5% in El Mirage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#112 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 132 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $339 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $39k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $47,530 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 84.45%
• DSCR: 4.76
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $80,928
• List price: $49,000
• Delta: -39.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16101 N EL Mirage Rd #424	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+4%)	19mo	$100,000	$83	71
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #75	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,152 (0%)	6mo	$62,000	$54	60
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #243	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,203 (+4%)	7mo	$135,000	$112	52
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #99	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,228 (+7%)	10mo	$118,000	$96	47
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #165	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,296 (+12%)	1mo	$94,500	$73	44
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #40	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+8%)	13mo	$80,000	$64	41
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #177	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+8%)	14mo	$40,000	$32	40
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #7	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,240 (+8%)	18mo	$55,000	$44	38
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #125	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,040 (-10%)	15mo	$61,000	$59	37
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #25	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,320 (+15%)	2mo	$92,000	$70	34
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #293	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,296 (+12%)	13mo	$114,000	$88	34
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #55	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+8%)	22mo	$85,000	$68	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 81.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.56×
• Total profit: $48,870
• Equity at exit: $7,306

10-year hold

• IRR: 84.2%
• Equity multiple: 8.55×
• Total profit: $103,603
• Equity at exit: $4,237

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85335

• Home prices YoY: -13.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 132
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,651 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$61 /mo · $735/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $966

Break-even live

Break-even rent $429

Max offer price $49,000

Occupancy floor 37%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15620 N El Mirage Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1310	$1,599	$1.22	24d	2	0.31mi
15427 N Jerry St Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	920	$1,450	$1.58	5d	1	0.41mi
16629 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	1052	$1,462	$1.39	2d	3	0.55mi
16520 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.5	1267	$1,695	$1.34	2d	17	0.55mi
12741 W Tasha Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.0	750	$1,275	$1.70	24d	1	0.74mi
12817 W Cottonwood St Unit 1 Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.0	725	$1,300	$1.79	5d	1	0.82mi
12438 W Hearn Rd El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1308	$1,595	$1.22	24d	1	0.85mi
11417 W Amber Trl Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1130	$1,750	$1.55	5d	1	1.03mi
12945 W Greenway Rd El Mirage, AZ	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,300	$1.23	24d	4	1.04mi
11345 W Loma Blanca Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,930	$1.41	43d	1	1.06mi
12574 W Lisbon Ln El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1058	$1,700	$1.61	4d	1	1.07mi
15426 N Cactus Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	1.0	1376	$1,634	$1.19	43d	1	1.15mi
11755 W Thompson Ranch Rd El Mirage, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$2,017	$2.15	1d	1	1.20mi
14005 N Palm St Unit 4 El Mirage, AZ	2.0	1.0	830	$1,200	$1.45	43d	1	1.24mi
13913 N Palm St Unit 14 El Mirage, AZ	2.0	1.0	830	$1,200	$1.45	43d	1	1.27mi
13913 N Palm St Unit 12 El Mirage, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	2d	1	1.27mi
17447 Avenue of the Arts Unit 2 Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,732	$1.61	24d	1	1.33mi
17447 Avenue of the Arts Unit 3 Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1183	$1,822	$1.54	24d	1	1.33mi
17447 Avenue of the Arts Unit 1 Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	782	$1,497	$1.91	24d	1	1.33mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1183	$1,981	$1.67	1d	1	1.40mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,813	$1.68	12d	1	1.40mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	782	$1,714	$2.19	15d	1	1.40mi
12022 W Ash St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,800	$1.73	24d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,000 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $49,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $49,000 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-04-22
    listed $49,000 Active 746-char remark

    Show marketing remark (746 chars)

    SITUATED ON A PRIME CORNER LOT, (#422) THIS AFFORDABLE HOME HAS WALL TO WALL LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING. IT'S AN ''OPEN CONCEPT'' FLOORPLAN WITH SOARING VAULTED CEILINGS. THE GREAT ROOM'S LARGE WINDOWS CAPTURE COPIOUS NATURAL LIGHT, AND THE USER-FRIENDLY KITCHEN BOASTS A LARGE PENINSULA, 30'' OVEN / RANGE, HANDY PANTRY, AND FULL SIZE FRIG, PLUS GENEROUS KITCHEN STORAGE. PRIMARY BEDROOM FEATURES A CLOSET OVER 10' WIDE, AND PRIMARY BATH HAS LO-THRESHOLD SHOWER, WITH GLASS DOORS, AND A FULL-LENGTH LINEN PANTRY. GUEST BEDROOM IN CLOSE RANGE OF THE HALL BATH, WITH TUB. LAUNDRY ROOM JUST OFF KITCHEN. PRIVATE BLOCK WALLED REAR YARD, WITH LARGE PATIO, AND JUMBO-SIZED STORAGE HUT. SHADY DOUBLE CARPORT FOR YOUR VEHICLES. STOP BY, AND BE SMITTEN!

15. 2026-01-01
    historical
16. 2025-09-07
    price $122,500
17. 2025-08-07
    listed $110,000 Active
18. 2025-07-09
    historical
19. 2025-04-04
    listed $129,000 Active
20. 2025-03-26
    historical
21. 2024-09-27
    listed $134,000 Active
22. 2019-11-01
    soldstatus $39,000 Closed
23. 2019-10-16
    status Pending
24. 2019-05-04
    price $39,900
25. 2019-04-16
    listed $47,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,811
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$735
• − Insurance: −$245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,585
• − Management: −$1,585
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable income: $11,491
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,758
• After-tax cash flow: $8,829/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — El Mirage

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #15164

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: El Mirage, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 36,088
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 36,088
• Household income: $78,050
• Rent vs Own: 30.3% rent · 69.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 669.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 35% Two or more races 28% Black 6% Native American 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 30% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.81%
• Current HPI: 342.6503
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.08%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+2.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $49,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-09-07 Price Changed $122,500 ARMLS
• 2025-08-07 Listed $110,000 ARMLS
• 2025-07-09 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-04-04 Listed $129,000 ARMLS
• 2025-03-26 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-09-27 Listed $134,000 ARMLS
• 2019-11-01 Sold (MLS) $39,000 ARMLS
• 2019-10-16 Pending — ARMLS
• 2019-05-04 Price Changed $39,900 ARMLS
• 2019-04-16 Listed $47,900 ARMLS