318 Cottonwood · Kenedy, TX 78119

$145,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,729 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 159 Days on market

Built 1969 10,497 sqft lot $84/sqft · 25% above area Est $116k · 25% over ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.7/30.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Solid brick home featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with a brand-new roof already in place. The property offers a peaceful country view and a great opportunity for buyers looking to update and personalize. With a functional layout and timeless brick exterior, this home has strong potential in a serene setting.

Key facts

• Brand new roof
• Functional layout
• Country view

Tags

• BRAND NEW ROOF
• COUNTRY VIEW
• TIMELESS BRICK EXTERIOR
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $276 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 5.1% in Kenedy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#822 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, schools F.
• Kenedy ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #698 of 826 in TX (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 78 units permitted in Karnes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• Karnes County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.15%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $115,815
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: 25.20%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.78% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $25,931
• Equity at exit: $55,479

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.96×
• Total profit: $79,713
• Equity at exit: $78,596

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78119

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 55
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,634 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$194 /mo · $2,331/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $276

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,285

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 159 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 158 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 157 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 156 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 154 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $145,000 Active 153 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $145,000 Active 150 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 149 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 148 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 147 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 144 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 143 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 142 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 141 DOM
15. 2026-03-06
    price $145,000 315-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    Solid brick home featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with a brand-new roof already in place. The property offers a peaceful country view and a great opportunity for buyers looking to update and personalize. With a functional layout and timeless brick exterior, this home has strong potential in a serene setting.

16. 2026-01-10
    listed $150,000 New 315-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    Solid brick home featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with a brand-new roof already in place. The property offers a peaceful country view and a great opportunity for buyers looking to update and personalize. With a functional layout and timeless brick exterior, this home has strong potential in a serene setting.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,331 · $194/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,654 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: +$322/yr (+$27/mo · 13.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,608
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$2,331
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,569
• − Management: −$1,569
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $1,074
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$258
• After-tax cash flow: $3,052/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenedy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825440
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $40,961
• Composite: 22.43/100
• National rank: #8111
• State rank: #698 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kenedy

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #822
• US rank: #14883

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kenedy, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,023

Population outlook (Karnes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,734 people
• By 2030: 18,027 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 20,893 · +24.9%
• By 2050: 23,689 · +41.6%
• By 2075: 31,064 · +85.6%
• By 2100: 34,752 · +107.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% Two or more races 28% White 25% Black 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 56%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 29% Vietnamese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Karnes

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.1) · D 20.7% · R 78.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.6pp toward R · 2008: -21.6pp · 2024: -58.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.1 2020: R+52.1 2016: R+43.4 2012: R+35.9 2008: R+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.78%
• Current HPI: 125.8778
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $145,000 LERA
• 2026-01-10 Listed $150,000 LERA

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,331 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.