1354 Caney Loop · Lillian, AL 36549

$149,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1966 9,975 sqft lot $222/sqft · 106% above area Est $169k · 12% under $74/mo HOA · 4% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.2/30.0
• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful and affordable coastal living opportunity in the Spanish Cove community! Cash buyers. This spacious 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath home offers added versatility with a Murphy bed and bonus office space, for remote work, guests, or flexible living. Thoughtfully updated throughout, the home features a newly renovated kitchen with stainless steel appliances, pantry storage, and modern finishes. Fresh paint and a brand-new HVAC system provide comfort and peace of mind. The inviting layout includes 2 bright sunrooms one at the entry and a spacious living area centered around a cozy wood-burning stove. The primary bathroom features a double vanity and an oversized walk-in shower, while the utility

Key facts

• Bonus office space
• Pantry storage
• Murphy bed

Tags

• MURPHY BED
• BONUS OFFICE SPACE
• NEWLY RENOVATED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• PANTRY STORAGE
• HVAC SYSTEM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing office: Gwen Vigon Realty LLC; Directions: Take county road 99, turn right onto Caney Loop; property is on the left.
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee ($74) covering management, common area insurance, grounds maintenance, pest control, recreational facilities, reserve funds, security, common area taxes, trash, clubhouse, and pool; Community amenities include BBQ area, clubhouse, common lobby, conference center, covered entry, fitness center, fishing, meeting room, on-site management, outdoor pool, tennis courts, and playground; Transfer fees apply

Exterior

• Parking: Single carport (1 covered space)
• Utilities: Perdido Bay Water; Baldwin County sewer service; Riviera Utilities
• Home design: Mobile home; One story; Resale condition; Less than 1 acre lot; No waterfront
• Construction: Metal siding and block construction; Metal roof; Built on block foundation
• Exterior features: Storage; Partial fencing; Community/association pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric central heating; Ceiling fans for cooling
• Interior features: Bonus room; Family room; Living room; Office/study; Sun room; Ceiling fans; Wood-burning fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry in a common area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $429 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 4.1% in Lillian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#97 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Elberta Elementary School (math 47% / reading 65%, grade C+, #83 of 627 statewide, top 13%, 884 students, 58% FRL); Elberta Middle School (math 21% / reading 67%, grade D, #42 of 257 statewide, top 17%, 267 students, 63% FRL); Elberta High School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #47 of 305 statewide, top 17%, 784 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 38% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $149k implies a 326% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,530 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.33%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $169,110
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -11.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $3,139
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $37,800
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36549

• Home prices YoY: -7.6%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,744 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $380/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$74
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $429

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,201

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $74 · $888/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $149,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,900 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,900 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $159,900 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,900 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,900 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,900 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $159,900 Active 17 DOM
18. 2026-05-13
    listed $159,900 Active 1517-char remark
19. 1997-12-19
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $380 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $611 · $51/mo
• Expected delta: +$231/yr (+$19/mo · 60.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,929
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$380
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,674
• − Management: −$1,674
• − HOA: −$888
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $2,887
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$693
• After-tax cash flow: $4,452/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Lillian

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #97
• US rank: #11371

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 6,152
• Population (ZIP): 6,152

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Italian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.45%
• Current HPI: 285.5902
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+325.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $149,000 BCAR
• 2026-05-13 Listed $159,900 BCAR
• 1997-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records