6413 Meadowlark Ln · Bayshore Gardens, FL 34210

$149,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,772 sqft · Condo public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1979 $1013/mo HOA · 33% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.7/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Short Sale. Opportunity on the larger 2-bedroom, 2-bath villa floor plan with gorgeous pond frontage and tranquil water views in the highly desirable Wild Oak Bay community. This property is in need of a full renovation and is perfect for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to create a custom retreat. This villa offers strong upside potential with the right vision and improvements. Priced at rock-bottom value to reflect the scope of work required, this is your chance to renovate from top to bottom and unlock its full potential. Wild Oak Bay is known for its lush, park-like setting, with mature oak trees, tropical landscaping, and a peaceful, tucked-away feel. Enjoy the enclosed lanai ove

Key facts

• Water views
• Mature oak trees
• Pond frontage

Tags

• POND FRONTAGE
• WATER VIEWS
• FULL RENOVATION
• ENCLOSED LANAI
• TROPICAL LANDSCAPING
• MATURE OAK TREES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $453 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 4.7% in Bayshore Gardens — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#72 in FL, #1,180 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute C-, schools F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-6.1%/yr); 549 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,106/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 895% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 33% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,749 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.93%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-3,942
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,106
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34210

• Rents YoY: -6.1%
• Active inventory: 549
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,106 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,670/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$1,013
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$652
• Net cashflow: $453

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,533

Max offer price $149,999

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $538	-5% $495	+0% $453	+5% $410	+10% $368
Rent	-10% $207	-5% $330	+0% $453	+5% $575	+10% $698
Rate	-1.0pp $528	-0.5pp $491	base $453	+0.5pp $414	+1.0pp $374

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6468 Seagull Dr #316 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1314	$3,900	$2.97	24d	1	0.11mi
6462 Wild Oak Bay Blvd #243 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1592	$4,100	$2.58	24d	1	0.12mi
6472 Seagull Dr #306 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1592	$2,595	$1.63	24d	1	0.14mi
6470 Mourning Dove Dr #203 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1364	$2,495	$1.83	24d	1	0.16mi
6430 Sun Eagle Ln Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1364	$2,448	$1.79	4d	2	0.18mi
6423 Egret Ln #402 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1425	$3,150	$2.21	24d	1	0.19mi
3411 Avenida Madera Unit A Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2300	$3,500	$1.52	24d	1	0.37mi
6101 34th St W Unit 27C Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1547	$2,250	$1.45	21d	1	0.45mi
6101 34th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1444	$1,890	$1.31	4d	2	0.49mi
6439 Georgia Ave Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1614	$2,095	$1.30	11d	1	0.51mi
6432 26th St W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,800	$1.40	17d	1	0.67mi
3503 Avenida Madera Unit B Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	2259	$4,500	$1.99	24d	1	0.71mi
4522 La Jolla Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1573	$3,100	$1.97	17d	1	0.73mi
4408 La Jolla Dr Unit 19A Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2378	$3,250	$1.37	24d	1	0.73mi
4334 Mirabella Cir Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2172	$6,500	$2.99	13d	1	0.74mi
3427 59th Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.5	1330	$2,150	$1.62	17d	1	0.77mi
2408 Colgate Ave Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1482	$5,500	$3.71	24d	1	0.79mi
4358 Mirabella Cir Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1823	$2,950	$1.62	24d	1	0.81mi
6912 26th St W Unit 1284305P Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1539	$5,420	$3.52	3d	1	0.89mi
3411 57th Avenue Dr W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1326	$2,100	$1.58	24d	1	0.96mi
3605 57th Avenue Dr W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1454	$2,100	$1.44	4d	1	0.98mi
5508 Summit Pointe Cir #104 Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2499	$3,995	$1.60	24d	1	1.13mi
3702 54th Dr W Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1327	$3,300	$2.49	4d	2	1.14mi
3705 54th Dr W #201 Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1650	$5,500	$3.33	17d	1	1.17mi
3705 54th Dr W #103 Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1650	$4,700	$2.85	17d	1	1.17mi
3401 54th Dr W Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1293	$3,300	$2.55	4d	3	1.19mi
3510 54th Dr W #103 Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1795	$5,500	$3.06	4d	1	1.19mi
3510 54th Dr W #102 Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1981	$5,900	$2.98	17d	1	1.19mi
3510 54th Dr W #101 Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1795	$5,000	$2.79	4d	1	1.19mi
5628 Summit Pointe Cir Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1714	$2,500	$1.46	24d	1	1.21mi
5522 46th Ct W Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2039	$6,000	$2.94	24d	1	1.28mi
5400 34th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1404	$2,500	$1.78	24d	3	1.28mi
5400 34th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1244	$2,675	$2.15	3d	2	1.28mi
5514 46th Ct W Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2039	$6,000	$2.94	4d	1	1.29mi
4148 53rd Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	989	$2,550	$2.58	3d	1	1.35mi
5531 46th Ct W #5531 Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2039	$5,900	$2.89	24d	1	1.36mi
5530 46th Ct W Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2039	$5,300	$2.60	4d	1	1.36mi
5433 46th Ct W Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2100	$5,400	$2.57	24d	1	1.36mi
5425 46th Ct W Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2039	$5,000	$2.45	4d	1	1.38mi
5607 20th St W Unit 5607 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1988	$1,900	$0.96	24d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $1,013 · $12,156/yr
• Likely covers: waterlandscaping
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-20
   listed $149,999 Active
3. 2002-12-16
   soldstatus $136,500
4. 1992-09-30
   soldstatus $98,500
5. 1990-06-12
   soldstatus $109,000
6. 1986-02-01
   soldstatus $105,000
7. 1980-11-01
   soldstatus $88,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,670 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,670 · $139/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 57% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,274
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,670
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,982
• − Management: −$2,982
• − HOA: −$12,156
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $3,969
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$952
• After-tax cash flow: $4,479/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bayshore Gardens

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #72
• US rank: #1180

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,840
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,682
• Household income: $64,244
• Rent vs Own: 39.3% rent · 60.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 895.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 20% Black 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 7%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -162.68%
• Current HPI: 246.9247
• Rent YoY: ▼ -6.08%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+70.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Listed $149,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $136,500 Public Records
• 1992-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $98,500 Public Records
• 1990-06-12 Sold (Public Records) $109,000 Public Records
• 1986-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 1980-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $88,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,670 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.