9898 Danube Ct · Commerce City, CO 80022

$573,385

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,811 sqft · MultiFamily · 17 Days on market

Built 2026

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover the perfect blend of value and lifestyle at 9898 Danube Court in the vibrant Settler's Crossing community. This beautiful ranch-style home sits on a corner lot and offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and 1,811 sq ft of thoughtfully designed living space. As you enter the home, you're welcomed by two bedrooms separated by a full bathroom, with a walk-in laundry room and a third bedroom conveniently located across the hall. Farther down, the home opens into a spacious great room featuring a large kitchen with an island and corner pantry, a dining nook overlooking the backyard, and an oversized living area perfect for gathering. Tucked away for added privacy, the primary s

Key facts

• Corner pantry
• En-suite bathroom
• Walk-in laundry room

Tags

• WALK-IN LAUNDRY ROOM
• LARGE KITCHEN WITH ISLAND
• CORNER PANTRY
• OVERSIZED LIVING AREA
• GENEROUS WALK-IN CLOSET
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $573,385

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family property
• Exterior features: Living area about 1,811 (listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home — Chatham plan; Active listing

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $573k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($26k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $573k).
• Recommended offer: $565k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 3.9% in Commerce City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#137 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• School District 27J (suburban): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #46 of 86 in CO (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 507 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,299 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (343 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,718/mo this rent would consume 89% of the median local household income ($104k/yr) (locally 1581% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Adams County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $161k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($565k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $564,784 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.96%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $40,223
• Equity at exit: $85,494

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $198,596
• Equity at exit: $49,576

Cash invested: $160,548 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80022

• Home prices YoY: -5.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 507
• Price-to-rent: 24.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,718 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,007
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$717 /mo · $8,601/yr
• Insurance: −$239
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,621
• Net cashflow: $2,135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,016

Max offer price $573,385

Occupancy floor 67%

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	2	1	$7,720
Total (4 units)			$7,718

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $143,346
• Closing costs: $17,202
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9892 Cathay St Commerce City, CO	4.0	2.0	1850	$3,200	$1.73	11d	1	0.14mi
9900 Biscay St Commerce City, CO	4.0	2.5	2556	$3,000	$1.17	43d	1	0.19mi
18954 E 97th Pl Commerce City, CO	3.0	2.0	1741	$2,800	$1.61	43d	1	0.30mi
9813 Bahama St Commerce City, CO	3.0	2.5	1468	$3,300	$2.25	2d	1	0.34mi
18366 E 102nd Pl Commerce City, CO	3.0	3.0	1958	$3,300	$1.69	16d	1	0.65mi
10243 Yampa Ct Commerce City, CO	3.0	2.5	1982	$2,995	$1.51	10d	1	0.69mi
18009 E 99th Pl Commerce City, CO	3.0	2.0	2347	$3,055	$1.30	4d	1	0.81mi
10156 Ventura St Commerce City, CO	3.0	3.0	1905	$3,000	$1.57	11d	1	0.83mi
9443 Danube St Commerce City, CO	3.0	2.5	1679	$3,200	$1.91	43d	1	0.85mi
17918 E 99th Pl Commerce City, CO	3.0	2.0	1442	$2,935	$2.04	43d	1	0.86mi
9465 Yampa St Commerce City, CO	3.0	2.5	1660	$2,960	$1.78	24d	1	1.00mi
9481 Yampa St Commerce City, CO	5.0	2.5	2200	$3,280	$1.49	24d	1	1.00mi
17923 E 94th Pl Commerce City, CO	5.0	2.5	2200	$3,410	$1.55	20d	1	1.01mi
17754 E 103rd Ave Commerce City, CO	3.0	3.0	1646	$2,800	$1.70	24d	1	1.01mi
17945 E 94th Ave Commerce City, CO	4.0	2.5	1851	$3,190	$1.72	43d	1	1.02mi
17941 E 94th Ave Commerce City, CO	5.0	2.5	2200	$3,410	$1.55	43d	1	1.02mi
17704 E 103rd Ave Commerce City, CO	3.0	3.0	1646	$2,650	$1.61	24d	1	1.03mi
17903 E 94th Pl Commerce City, CO	4.0	2.5	1851	$3,310	$1.79	4d	1	1.03mi
17925 E 94th Ave Commerce City, CO	4.0	2.5	1851	$3,190	$1.72	43d	1	1.03mi
17921 E 94th Ave Commerce City, CO	5.0	2.5	2200	$3,310	$1.50	21d	1	1.04mi
17912 E 94th Pl Commerce City, CO	3.0	2.5	1660	$3,022	$1.82	43d	1	1.04mi
17915 E 94th Pl Commerce City, CO	4.0	2.5	1851	$3,190	$1.72	4d	1	1.04mi
10239 Southlawn Cir Commerce City, CO	3.0	3.0	2427	$3,059	$1.26	2d	1	1.05mi
17892 E 94th Pl Commerce City, CO	4.0	2.5	1851	$3,310	$1.79	24d	1	1.05mi
17946 E 94th Ave Commerce City, CO	5.0	2.5	2200	$3,340	$1.52	4d	1	1.05mi
17940 E 94th Ave Commerce City, CO	4.0	2.5	1851	$3,190	$1.72	4d	1	1.05mi
17901 E 94th Ave Commerce City, CO	4.0	2.5	1851	$3,210	$1.73	20d	1	1.06mi
17861 E 94th Ave Commerce City, CO	5.0	2.5	2200	$3,310	$1.50	20d	1	1.09mi
10261 Rifle St Commerce City, CO	4.0	3.0	2478	$3,149	$1.27	43d	1	1.26mi
9259 Rifle St Commerce City, CO	3.0	2.5	2484	$3,195	$1.29	21d	1	1.39mi
9128 Salida St Commerce City, CO	4.0	3.0	2585	$3,950	$1.53	14d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $573,385 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $573,385 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   status $573,385 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-05-07
   listed $573,385 Active 1311-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $92,616
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,118
• − Property taxes: −$8,601
• − Insurance: −$2,867
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,409
• − Management: −$7,409
• − Depreciation: −$16,680
• Taxable income: $17,531
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,207
• After-tax cash flow: $21,409/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: School District 27J
• NCES district ID: 0802580
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $79,576
• Composite: 27.72/100
• National rank: #6904
• State rank: #46 of 86 in CO

Livability — Commerce City

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #137
• US rank: #11491

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Commerce City, CO
• County: Adams County · 464,133 people
• City population: 13,818
• Metro: Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO
• Population (ZIP): 61,452
• Household income: $104,396
• Rent vs Own: 23.9% rent · 76.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1581.0

Population outlook (Adams County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 598,184 people
• By 2030: 651,880 · +9.0%
• By 2040: 759,778 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 862,889 · +44.3%
• By 2075: 1,085,994 · +81.5%
• By 2100: 1,211,318 · +102.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 53% White 36% Two or more races 20% Black 5% Native American 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 29% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Adams

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.0) · D 53.2% · R 44.1% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.3pp toward R · 2008: 18.4pp · 2024: 9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.0 2020: D+16.3 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+15.1 2008: D+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -37.35%
• Current HPI: 643.12
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.62%
• Metro: Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B