4446 Desert Rd · Suffolk, VA 23434

$270,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,011 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 99 Days on market

Built 1989 2.20 ac lot $134/sqft · 47% below area Est $511k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Attention Investors ! Come see this 4 bed/ 2 bath brick ranch on 2.20 acres in rural Suffolk. It needs a roof, potential crawl space repairs, has an older HVAC and primary bath is not operational. 4th bedroom is above converted garage. The home has great potential. Newer LVP in the Kitchen, living room, and hall. Cash or rehab loan only. Selling "AS IS". Requires 24 hours notice to show for pets.

Key facts

• 2.2 acre lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 1989

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-243 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (15.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (24.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (24.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.5% in Suffolk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#88 in VA, #2,896 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, schools A; Watch: crime C-, commute F.
• Suffolk City Public School District (suburban): math 41% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #72 of 131 in VA (top 55%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 536 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 680 units permitted in Suffolk city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $200k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,576 (24.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.86%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $511,413
• List price: $270,000
• Delta: -47.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4640 Desert Rd	0.36mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,266 (+13%)	8mo	$680,000	$300	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.84% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-53,194
• Equity at exit: $40,258

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-39,996
• Equity at exit: $23,345

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23434

• Rents YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 536
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,046 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$331 /mo · $3,970/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $-243

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,353

Max offer price $227,061

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $270,000 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $270,000 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $270,000 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $270,000 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $270,000 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $270,000 Active 90 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $270,000 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $270,000 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $270,000 Active 84 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $270,000 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $270,000 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $270,000 Active 81 DOM
13. 2026-05-02
    price $270,000 411-char remark

    Show marketing remark (411 chars)

    Attention Investors ! Come see this 4 bed/ 2 bath brick ranch on 2.20 acres in rural Suffolk. It needs a roof, potential crawl space repairs, has an older HVAC and primary bath is not operational. 4th bedroom is above converted garage. The home has great potential. Newer LVP in the Kitchen, living room, and hall. Cash or rehab loan only. Selling "AS IS". Requires 24 hours notice to show for pets.

14. 2026-03-26
    price $274,900 411-char remark

    Show marketing remark (411 chars)

    Attention Investors ! Come see this 4 bed/ 2 bath brick ranch on 2.20 acres in rural Suffolk. It needs a roof, potential crawl space repairs, has an older HVAC and primary bath is not operational. 4th bedroom is above converted garage. The home has great potential. Newer LVP in the Kitchen, living room, and hall. Cash or rehab loan only. Selling "AS IS". Requires 24 hours notice to show for pets.

15. 2026-03-11
    listed $280,000 Active 411-char remark

    Show marketing remark (411 chars)

    Attention Investors ! Come see this 4 bed/ 2 bath brick ranch on 2.20 acres in rural Suffolk. It needs a roof, potential crawl space repairs, has an older HVAC and primary bath is not operational. 4th bedroom is above converted garage. The home has great potential. Newer LVP in the Kitchen, living room, and hall. Cash or rehab loan only. Selling "AS IS". Requires 24 hours notice to show for pets.

16. 2004-11-10
    soldstatus $200,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,970 · $331/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,970 · $331/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,549
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$3,970
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,964
• − Management: −$1,964
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$7,677
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,843
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,074/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Suffolk City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103710
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -43.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $65,573
• Composite: 48.31/100
• National rank: #2151
• State rank: #72 of 131 in VA

Livability — Suffolk

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #88
• US rank: #2896

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living C Crime C- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Suffolk, VA
• County: Suffolk City · 88,108 people
• City population: 88,108
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 54,387
• Household income: $79,877
• Rent vs Own: 31.5% rent · 68.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1934.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 95,269 people
• By 2030: 98,269 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 103,177 · +8.3%
• By 2050: 105,777 · +11.0%
• By 2075: 110,963 · +16.5%
• By 2100: 103,711 · +8.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% White 41% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: D (+15.9) · D 57.4% · R 41.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.7pp toward D · 2008: 13.2pp · 2024: 15.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.9 2020: D+17.3 2016: D+13.8 2012: D+15.1 2008: D+13.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.80%
• Current HPI: 158.5866
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.84%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+35.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $270,000 REINMLS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $274,900 REINMLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $280,000 REINMLS
• 2004-11-10 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,970 · +9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.