16022 Tangled Vine Ln · Grangerland, TX 77302

$345,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,360 sqft · Land · 22 Days on market

Built 2025 6,211 sqft lot $75/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

FULLY FURNISHED (virtually staged furniture in bedrooms/study will not convey) Welcome to this stunning 4-bedroom, 3-bath home in the highly sought-after Mavera community! Priced to sell and being sold fully furnished, this is the ultimate turnkey opportunity. From the moment you step inside, you’ll love the spacious open-concept design, modern finishes, and natural light that fills each room. The layout is perfect for both everyday living and entertaining, with generously sized bedrooms offering flexibility for guests, a home office, or growing families. Step outside and enjoy resort-style living with access to a sparkling pool, scenic parks, walking trails, pickleball courts, and

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Pickleball courts
• Multiple lakes

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• SCENIC PARKS
• WALKING TRAILS
• PICKLEBALL COURTS
• MULTIPLE LAKES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community managed by Inframark Community Management; Community amenities: pool, playground, picnic area, park, pickleball, trails; Annual association fee of $900

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2025; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Subdivision setting; Pond on the lot; Concrete road access; Association pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor (18 x 9); Appliances include dishwasher, disposal, microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (15 x 14); Bedroom on the first floor (12 x 11); Bedroom on the first floor (11 x 10); Bedroom on the first floor (11 x 10); Up to 4 bedrooms possible
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central gas heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Seven total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $345k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-51 ($-607/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $336k (2.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (23.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $263k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 5.1% in Grangerland — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: San Jacinto El (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,921 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 547 students, 81% FRL); Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 34% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 37% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1111 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($340k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $262,847 (23.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.63%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-58,450
• Equity at exit: $51,441

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-52,243
• Equity at exit: $29,829

Cash invested: $96,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1111
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,628 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,809
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,190/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$552
• Net cashflow: $-51

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,693

Max offer price $336,060

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,250
• Closing costs: $10,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15447 Dapple Bluff Ln Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2265	$2,900	$1.28	43d	1	0.57mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-03
   listed $345,000 Active
4. 2026-04-02
   historical
5. 2026-03-23
   price $350,000
6. 2026-02-25
   listed $375,000 Active
7. 2026-01-14
   historical
8. 2025-12-07
   price $350,000
9. 2025-11-12
   listed $389,700 Active
10. 2025-11-12
    historical
11. 2025-10-25
    price $369,700
12. 2025-10-16
    listed $389,700 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,190 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,314 · $526/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,124/yr (+$427/mo · 430.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,542
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,325
• − Property taxes: −$1,190
• − Insurance: −$1,725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,523
• − Management: −$2,523
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$10,036
• Taxable loss: −$6,681
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,604
• After-tax cash flow: $996/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $345,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $350,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-25 Listed $375,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-07 Price Changed $350,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-12 Listed $389,700 HARMLS
• 2025-10-25 Price Changed $369,700 HARMLS
• 2025-10-16 Listed $389,700 HARMLS

Property tax history

+38.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,190 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.