20712 N 273rd Ave · Buckeye, AZ 85396

$315,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,493 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 2007 5,274 sqft lot Est $367k · 14% under $180/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully upgraded home in Sun City Festival! Enjoy granite countertops, rich maple cabinetry, and stainless appliances in the open kitchen with breakfast bar and built-in desk area. The flexible space can serve as a coffee bar or workstation. The great room opens to a private, partially walled patio with no rear neighbors--perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Inside, you'll find full-size washer and dryer, and an HVAC system replaced in 2021. Come experience the vibrant lifestyle and amenities that make Sun City Festival shine! Home can be sold turnkey.

Key facts

• Stainless appliances
• Built-in desk area
• Granite countertops

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• MAPLE CABINETRY
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• OPEN KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST BAR
• BUILT-IN DESK AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association with quarterly fee of $540 (includes grounds maintenance); Community amenities: pool, golf, pickleball courts, tennis courts, biking/walking paths, fitness center

Exterior

• Parking: Covered 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco, wood frame and block construction
• Exterior features: Tile roof; Partial block fencing; East/West exposure; Desert front and back yard; City-maintained road; Asphalt road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Granite counters; Double vanity; No interior steps; Pantry; Full bathroom in primary bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $308 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $308k (2.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $308k (2.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.1% in Buckeye — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#53 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Wickenburg Unified District (4236) (rural): math 33% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #92 of 249 in AZ (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Festival Foothills Elementary School (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #308 of 1,109 statewide, top 29%, 314 students, 31% FRL); Wickenburg High School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #120 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 460 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 939 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $238k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $308,497 (2.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.20%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $367,278
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20421 N 275th Dr	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,561 (+5%)	2mo	$480,000	$307	72
21343 N 272nd Ln	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,574 (+5%)	3mo	$412,990	$262	71
27072 W Adam Ave	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,526 (+2%)	3mo	$393,990	$258	68
21290 N 270th Ave	0.48mi	2/2.0	1,524 (+2%)	3mo	$325,000	$213	68
20497 N 271st Ave	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,612 (+8%)	3mo	$480,000	$298	65
27134 W Ross Ave	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,700 (+14%)	1mo	$387,500	$228	61
26821 W Melinda Ln	0.75mi	2/2.0	1,525 (+2%)	1mo	$372,000	$244	57
21392 N 268th Dr	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,576 (+6%)	1mo	$380,000	$241	54
27127 W Adam Ave	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,280 (-14%)	3mo	$350,000	$273	51
20289 N 268th Ave	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,612 (+8%)	2mo	$353,000	$219	51
20463 N 267th Ln	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,375 (-8%)	1mo	$275,000	$200	50
26996 W Melinda Ln	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,279 (-14%)	1mo	$315,000	$246	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-30,101
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $4,445
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85396

• Home prices YoY: -18.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 939
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,085 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$165 /mo · $1,986/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$180
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$648
• Net cashflow: $308

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,694

Max offer price $315,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
27244 W Potter Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1612	$3,500	$2.17	43d	1	0.09mi
20602 N 274th Ave Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1561	$3,500	$2.24	15d	1	0.14mi
20311 N 271st Ave Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1612	$3,000	$1.86	1d	1	0.33mi
27013 W Potter Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1612	$4,200	$2.61	43d	1	0.38mi
27389 W Wahalla Ln Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.5	1717	$3,500	$2.04	1d	1	0.57mi
26766 W Mohawk Ln Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1375	$2,500	$1.82	4d	1	0.68mi
26731 W Pontiac Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1373	$1,475	$1.07	2d	1	0.78mi
20669 N 266th Ave Buckeye, AZ	3.0	2.0	1612	$4,200	$2.61	24d	1	0.91mi
26881 W Utopia Rd Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1705	$3,500	$2.05	1d	1	0.93mi
26781 W Oraibi Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1561	$2,000	$1.28	18d	1	0.94mi
26477 W Ross Ave Buckeye, AZ	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,500	$1.09	43d	1	1.03mi
26237 W Matthew Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1646	$3,500	$2.13	1d	1	1.32mi
18675 N 268th Ave Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1865	$1,799	$0.96	43d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $180 · $2,160/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $315,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $315,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $315,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $315,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $315,000 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $315,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $315,000 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   remarks 563-char remark
9. 2026-06-08
   listed $315,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,986 · $165/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,079 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: +$93/yr (+$8/mo · 4.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,020
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$1,986
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,962
• − Management: −$2,962
• − HOA: −$2,160
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$1,433
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$344
• After-tax cash flow: $4,046/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wickenburg Unified District (4236)
• NCES district ID: 0409190
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,369
• Composite: 29.27/100
• National rank: #6560
• State rank: #92 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Buckeye

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #9428

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buckeye, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 117,540
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 42,181
• Household income: $114,056
• Rent vs Own: 7.3% rent · 92.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 156.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Black 4% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Portuguese 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.97%
• Current HPI: 246.4705
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-98.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Listed $315,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $325,000 ARMLS
• 2024-10-17 Listed $340,000 ARMLS
• 2020-05-22 Price Changed $239,900 ARMLS
• 2019-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $237,900 Public Records
• 2019-01-30 Sold (MLS) $237,900 ARMLS
• 2019-01-25 Pending — ARMLS
• 2019-01-10 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2018-11-29 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2018-11-19 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2018-11-01 Listed $239,900 ARMLS
• 2018-11-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2018-11-01 Listed $23,992,002 ARMLS

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,986 · +22.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.