103 Bay Rd · Flowood, MS 39047

$307,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,718 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1975 0.37 ac lot Est $361k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Take a look at this 4 bedroom/2 and a half bathroom home located in Brandon near the Rez! This is a split plan home with large bedrooms, a formal dining room, den and sitting room or office. There's a storage room and shed out back. This i s a must see!

Key facts

• 0.37 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1975

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned for general residential
• Financial info: Financial details not provided
• HOA & community: No HOA information listed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport (2 spaces, 2 total)
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected
• Home design: Single family residence (house); One level; Living area reported by owner
• Construction: Brick construction; Slab foundation; Year built reported in public records
• Exterior features: Permeable paving; Private entrance; Private yard; Rain gutters; Asphalt roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in gas oven; Double oven; Electric cooktop; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms information not provided
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (3 total)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Gas cooling connection
• Interior features: Bar; Ceiling fan(s); Double vanity; Eat-in kitchen; Entrance foyer; Storage; Walk-in closet(s); Living room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry room; Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $307k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $30 ($361/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (19.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $249k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.3% in Flowood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#10 in MS, #3,075 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Rankin County School District (rural): math 56% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #6 of 130 in MS (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Northshore Elementary (math 82% / reading 68%, grade A, #5 of 375 statewide, top 1%, 551 students, 100% FRL); Northwest Rankin Middle School (math 63% / reading 51%, grade B, #13 of 179 statewide, top 7%, 1,374 students, 100% FRL); Northwest Rankin High School (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D-, #34 of 197 statewide, top 17%, 1,898 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 35% district-wide (65 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 440 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 343 units permitted in Rankin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rankin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $248,525 (19.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.42%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $361,494
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
406 Bay Park Dr	0.20mi	4/2.5	2,732 (+0%)	15mo	$292,000	$107	75
200 Bay Rd	0.05mi	4/2.5	2,456 (-10%)	11mo	$277,500	$113	70
319 Bay Park Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,665 (-2%)	20mo	$199,000	$75	59
527 Pelahatchie Shore Dr	0.35mi	4/3.5	2,446 (-10%)	11mo	$409,900	$168	52
719 Forest Point Dr	0.62mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,900 (+7%)	3mo	$565,000	$195	50
24 Savannah Cir	0.75mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,508 (-8%)	1mo	$329,900	$132	45
701 Forest Point Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,486 (-8%)	13mo	$330,000	$133	39
602 Forest Point Dr	0.73mi	4/2.5	2,562 (-6%)	23mo	$549,900	$215	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-48,157
• Equity at exit: $45,775

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-40,804
• Equity at exit: $26,544

Cash invested: $85,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39047

• Home prices YoY: -32.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 440
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,485 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,610
• Tax from tax record: −$195 /mo · $2,344/yr
• Insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$522
• Net cashflow: $30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,447

Max offer price $307,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $204	-5% $117	+0% $30	+5% $-57	+10% $-144
Rent	-10% $-166	-5% $-68	+0% $30	+5% $128	+10% $226
Rate	-1.0pp $185	-0.5pp $108	base $30	+0.5pp $-49	+1.0pp $-130

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,750
• Closing costs: $9,210
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
538 Brighton Cir Brandon, MS	4.0	2.0	2042	$2,395	$1.17	15d	1	1.04mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $307,000 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $307,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $307,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $307,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $307,000 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $307,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $307,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   remarks 33-char remark
9. 2026-06-03
   listed $307,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,344 · $195/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,425 · $202/mo
• Expected delta: +$81/yr (+$7/mo · 3.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,823
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,197
• − Property taxes: −$2,344
• − Insurance: −$1,535
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,386
• − Management: −$2,386
• − Depreciation: −$8,931
• Taxable loss: −$4,956
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,189
• After-tax cash flow: $1,551/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rankin County School District
• NCES district ID: 2803830
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $61,867
• Composite: 45.62/100
• National rank: #2587
• State rank: #6 of 130 in MS

Livability — Flowood

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #3075

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Rankin County · 123,614 people
• City population: 9,222
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 40,808
• Household income: $100,347
• Rent vs Own: 14.7% rent · 85.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 551.0

Population outlook (Rankin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,317 people
• By 2030: 171,013 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 182,723 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 192,376 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 209,535 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 209,534 · +27.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 16% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rankin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.9% · R 73.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.4pp toward D · 2008: -53.5pp · 2024: -47.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+45.4 2016: R+52.9 2012: R+51.9 2008: R+53.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.01%
• Current HPI: 162.9709
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+6.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $307,000 MLSU
• 2022-08-09 Pending — MLSU
• 2022-08-09 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2022-07-16 Contingent — MLSU
• 2022-04-27 Pending — MLSU
• 2022-04-10 Listed $289,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+11.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,344 · -29.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.