🌊 Lakefront
4102 Des Prez Ct · Hernando Beach, FL
Flood risk 10/10 · Severe
- FEMA flood zone
- AE
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.99%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $1,737 – $8,500
Fire risk 5/10 · Moderate
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $947 – $1,759
Heat risk 10/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 110°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 23 days/yr
Wind risk 10/10 · Severe
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 3/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 2 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 3 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- 1% rule +9.4/10.0
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- Schools +4.2/10.0
- Livability +3.2/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$250,000
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Property is currently in the process of a short sale. All offers are subject to bank approval. Double Lot with Direct Access to the Gulf of Mexico. Withlacoochee River Electric and Hernando County Water/Sewer on site. Home was affected by Hurricane Helene. This double lot has a 100 ft concrete seawall and boat dock for your fishing/boating pleasures. This property was affected by the Hurricanes and is being sold for the value of the improved land giving you a blank slate that offers easy access to boating and fishing in the Gulf. This is a double lot measuring 100x100 sq ft. Plenty of room for your dream home and a pool.
Key facts
- Boat dock
- Double lot
- 0.23 acre lot
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $711 ($9k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $250k).
- Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 3.5% in Hernando Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 64/100 on livability (#672 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, amenities F.
- Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
- Market conditions: 347 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
- 9 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
- Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
- What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
- Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.44% ✓
- Cap rate
- 11.76%
- Cash-on-cash
- 19.51%
- DSCR
- 1.87
- GRM
- 5.8
CMA / ARV
- ARV (on-the-fly)
- $552,420
- Comps found
- 12
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4023 Companero Entra | 0.23mi | 3/3.0 | 1,374 (+1%) | 2mo | $630,000 | $459 | 82 |
| 4137 Des Prez Ct | 0.05mi | 3/2.0 | 1,470 (+8%) | 6mo | $595,000 | $405 | 80 |
| 4151 Camelia Dr | 0.13mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,432 (+5%) | 2mo | $395,000 | $276 | 79 |
| 4208 Des Prez Ct | 0.17mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,435 (+5%) | 0mo | $500,000 | $348 | 78 |
| 3363 Poinsettia Dr | 0.48mi | 3/2.0 | 1,440 (+6%) | 4mo | $495,000 | $344 | 65 |
| 4315 Flexer Dr | 0.37mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,254 (-8%) | 0mo | $355,000 | $283 | 64 |
| 3356 Oleander Dr | 0.44mi | 3/2.0 | 1,242 (-9%) | 2mo | $470,000 | $378 | 63 |
| 4071 Orient Dr | 0.46mi | 3/2.0 | 1,260 (-8%) | 3mo | $540,000 | $429 | 63 |
| 4452 Kingston Dr | 0.63mi | 3/2.0 | 1,204 (-12%) | 4mo | $615,000 | $511 | 48 |
| 3546 Flamingo Blvd | 0.69mi | 3/2.0 | 1,528 (+12%) | 4mo | $652,000 | $427 | 44 |
| 4446 Bahama Dr | 0.58mi | 3/3.0 | 1,193 (-12%) | 5mo | $590,000 | $495 | 44 |
| 4447 Bahama Dr | 0.59mi | 3/1.0 | 1,186 (-13%) | 4mo | $435,000 | $367 | 43 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 1.9%
- Equity multiple
- 1.07×
- Total profit
- $5,107
- Equity at exit
- $37,276
- IRR
- 11.6%
- Equity multiple
- 1.91×
- Total profit
- $64,041
- Equity at exit
- $21,615
Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Florida
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 34607
- Home prices YoY
- -9.1%
- Active inventory
- 347
- Price-to-rent
- 5.8×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $3,609 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,311
- Tax from tax record
- −$298 /mo · $3,573/yr
- Insurance
- −$104
- Flood insurance flood zone
- −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$758
- Net cashflow
- $711
Break-even live
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $62,500
- Closing costs
- $7,500
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 4 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4262 Biscayne Dr Hernando Beach, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1580 | $4,000 | $2.53 | 24d | 1 | 0.34mi |
| 4446 San Juan Dr Hernando Beach, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1245 | $3,500 | $2.81 | 24d | 1 | 0.58mi |
| 3272 Minnow Creek Dr Hernando Beach, FL | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1830 | $3,000 | $1.64 | 24d | 1 | 0.82mi |
| 4021 Eagle Nest Dr Hernando Beach, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1199 | $3,300 | $2.75 | 17d | 1 | 0.97mi |
Listing history 23 events
-
2025-12-30status Pending
Show marketing remark (628 chars)
Property is currently in the process of a short sale. All offers are subject to bank approval. Double Lot with Direct Access to the Gulf of Mexico. Withlacoochee River Electric and Hernando County Water/Sewer on site. Home was affected by Hurricane Helene. This double lot has a 100 ft concrete seawall and boat dock for your fishing/boating pleasures. This property was affected by the Hurricanes and is being sold for the value of the improved land giving you a blank slate that offers easy access to boating and fishing in the Gulf. This is a double lot measuring 100x100 sq ft. Plenty of room for your dream home and a pool.
-
2025-12-30price $250,000
Show marketing remark (628 chars)
Property is currently in the process of a short sale. All offers are subject to bank approval. Double Lot with Direct Access to the Gulf of Mexico. Withlacoochee River Electric and Hernando County Water/Sewer on site. Home was affected by Hurricane Helene. This double lot has a 100 ft concrete seawall and boat dock for your fishing/boating pleasures. This property was affected by the Hurricanes and is being sold for the value of the improved land giving you a blank slate that offers easy access to boating and fishing in the Gulf. This is a double lot measuring 100x100 sq ft. Plenty of room for your dream home and a pool.
-
2025-12-30status Pending 628-char remark
Show marketing remark (628 chars)
Property is currently in the process of a short sale. All offers are subject to bank approval. Double Lot with Direct Access to the Gulf of Mexico. Withlacoochee River Electric and Hernando County Water/Sewer on site. Home was affected by Hurricane Helene. This double lot has a 100 ft concrete seawall and boat dock for your fishing/boating pleasures. This property was affected by the Hurricanes and is being sold for the value of the improved land giving you a blank slate that offers easy access to boating and fishing in the Gulf. This is a double lot measuring 100x100 sq ft. Plenty of room for your dream home and a pool.
-
2025-12-30price $250,000 628-char remark
Show marketing remark (628 chars)
Property is currently in the process of a short sale. All offers are subject to bank approval. Double Lot with Direct Access to the Gulf of Mexico. Withlacoochee River Electric and Hernando County Water/Sewer on site. Home was affected by Hurricane Helene. This double lot has a 100 ft concrete seawall and boat dock for your fishing/boating pleasures. This property was affected by the Hurricanes and is being sold for the value of the improved land giving you a blank slate that offers easy access to boating and fishing in the Gulf. This is a double lot measuring 100x100 sq ft. Plenty of room for your dream home and a pool.
-
2025-12-30$250,000 Active
Show marketing remark (628 chars)
Property is currently in the process of a short sale. All offers are subject to bank approval. Double Lot with Direct Access to the Gulf of Mexico. Withlacoochee River Electric and Hernando County Water/Sewer on site. Home was affected by Hurricane Helene. This double lot has a 100 ft concrete seawall and boat dock for your fishing/boating pleasures. This property was affected by the Hurricanes and is being sold for the value of the improved land giving you a blank slate that offers easy access to boating and fishing in the Gulf. This is a double lot measuring 100x100 sq ft. Plenty of room for your dream home and a pool.
-
2025-12-30historical
Show marketing remark (628 chars)
Property is currently in the process of a short sale. All offers are subject to bank approval. Double Lot with Direct Access to the Gulf of Mexico. Withlacoochee River Electric and Hernando County Water/Sewer on site. Home was affected by Hurricane Helene. This double lot has a 100 ft concrete seawall and boat dock for your fishing/boating pleasures. This property was affected by the Hurricanes and is being sold for the value of the improved land giving you a blank slate that offers easy access to boating and fishing in the Gulf. This is a double lot measuring 100x100 sq ft. Plenty of room for your dream home and a pool.
-
2025-08-01status Active 628-char remark
Show marketing remark (628 chars)
Property is currently in the process of a short sale. All offers are subject to bank approval. Double Lot with Direct Access to the Gulf of Mexico. Withlacoochee River Electric and Hernando County Water/Sewer on site. Home was affected by Hurricane Helene. This double lot has a 100 ft concrete seawall and boat dock for your fishing/boating pleasures. This property was affected by the Hurricanes and is being sold for the value of the improved land giving you a blank slate that offers easy access to boating and fishing in the Gulf. This is a double lot measuring 100x100 sq ft. Plenty of room for your dream home and a pool.
-
2025-08-01status Active
Show marketing remark (628 chars)
Property is currently in the process of a short sale. All offers are subject to bank approval. Double Lot with Direct Access to the Gulf of Mexico. Withlacoochee River Electric and Hernando County Water/Sewer on site. Home was affected by Hurricane Helene. This double lot has a 100 ft concrete seawall and boat dock for your fishing/boating pleasures. This property was affected by the Hurricanes and is being sold for the value of the improved land giving you a blank slate that offers easy access to boating and fishing in the Gulf. This is a double lot measuring 100x100 sq ft. Plenty of room for your dream home and a pool.
-
2025-07-31historical
Show marketing remark (628 chars)
Property is currently in the process of a short sale. All offers are subject to bank approval. Double Lot with Direct Access to the Gulf of Mexico. Withlacoochee River Electric and Hernando County Water/Sewer on site. Home was affected by Hurricane Helene. This double lot has a 100 ft concrete seawall and boat dock for your fishing/boating pleasures. This property was affected by the Hurricanes and is being sold for the value of the improved land giving you a blank slate that offers easy access to boating and fishing in the Gulf. This is a double lot measuring 100x100 sq ft. Plenty of room for your dream home and a pool.
-
2025-07-31historical 628-char remark
Show marketing remark (628 chars)
Property is currently in the process of a short sale. All offers are subject to bank approval. Double Lot with Direct Access to the Gulf of Mexico. Withlacoochee River Electric and Hernando County Water/Sewer on site. Home was affected by Hurricane Helene. This double lot has a 100 ft concrete seawall and boat dock for your fishing/boating pleasures. This property was affected by the Hurricanes and is being sold for the value of the improved land giving you a blank slate that offers easy access to boating and fishing in the Gulf. This is a double lot measuring 100x100 sq ft. Plenty of room for your dream home and a pool.
-
2025-01-31$425,000 Active
Show marketing remark (628 chars)
Property is currently in the process of a short sale. All offers are subject to bank approval. Double Lot with Direct Access to the Gulf of Mexico. Withlacoochee River Electric and Hernando County Water/Sewer on site. Home was affected by Hurricane Helene. This double lot has a 100 ft concrete seawall and boat dock for your fishing/boating pleasures. This property was affected by the Hurricanes and is being sold for the value of the improved land giving you a blank slate that offers easy access to boating and fishing in the Gulf. This is a double lot measuring 100x100 sq ft. Plenty of room for your dream home and a pool.
-
2025-01-31$425,000 Active 628-char remark
Show marketing remark (628 chars)
Property is currently in the process of a short sale. All offers are subject to bank approval. Double Lot with Direct Access to the Gulf of Mexico. Withlacoochee River Electric and Hernando County Water/Sewer on site. Home was affected by Hurricane Helene. This double lot has a 100 ft concrete seawall and boat dock for your fishing/boating pleasures. This property was affected by the Hurricanes and is being sold for the value of the improved land giving you a blank slate that offers easy access to boating and fishing in the Gulf. This is a double lot measuring 100x100 sq ft. Plenty of room for your dream home and a pool.
-
2019-11-11historical
-
2019-09-06soldstatus $218,000
-
2019-09-06soldstatus $218,000
-
2019-09-06soldstatus $218,000
-
2019-04-26$224,900
-
2019-04-26$224,900
-
2017-12-29historical
-
2017-06-30$245,000
-
2017-06-30$245,000
-
1989-08-01soldstatus $72,000
-
1982-04-01soldstatus $47,000
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $3,573 · $298/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $3,573 · $298/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 5/10 Major
- Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $43,305
- − Mortgage interest
- −$14,004
- − Property taxes
- −$3,573
- − Insurance
- −$6,368
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$3,464
- − Management
- −$3,464
- − Depreciation
- −$7,273
- Taxable income
- $5,158
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$1,238
- After-tax cash flow
- $7,299/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Hernando
- NCES district ID
- 1200810
- Math proficiency
- 50% ▼ -8.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 50% ▼ -4.00%
- Median HH income
- $41,985
- Composite
- 42.03/100
- National rank
- #3329
- State rank
- #38 of 73 in FL
Livability — Hernando Beach
- Score
- 64/100
- State rank
- #672
- US rank
- #13911
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Hernando Beach, FL
- Population (ZIP)
- 9,046
Population outlook (Hernando County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 189,218 people
- By 2030
- 194,367 · +2.7%
- By 2040
- 203,398 · +7.5%
- By 2050
- 209,589 · +10.8%
- By 2075
- 218,452 · +15.4%
- By 2100
- 205,923 · +8.8%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (81%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 81% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 6% Black 2%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 2%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 4% · Canada, South Korea
- Languages at home
- 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Arabic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Hernando
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+37.0) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -33.5pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -37.0pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+37.0 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+29.0 2012: R+8.5 2008: R+3.6
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -56.89%
- Current HPI
- 567.35
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.28%
- F500 in state
- 36
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial Technology | 2 | $29B |
|
||
| Insurance | 2 | $17B |
|
||
| Retail | 1 | $60B |
|
||
| Technology Distribution | 1 | $58B |
|
||
| Homebuilding | 1 | $35B |
|
||
| Technology Manufacturing | 1 | $35B |
|
||
Price history
+431.9% since first listed23 events — show timeline
- 2025-12-30 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-12-30 Price Changed $250,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-12-30 Pending — HCAR
- 2025-12-30 Price Changed $250,000 HCAR
- 2025-12-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-12-30 Listed $250,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-08-01 Relisted — HCAR
- 2025-08-01 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-07-31 Listing Removed — HCAR
- 2025-07-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-01-31 Listed $425,000 HCAR
- 2025-01-31 Listed $425,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2019-11-11 Listing Removed — HCAR
- 2019-09-06 Sold (Public Records) $218,000 Public Records
- 2019-09-06 Sold (MLS) $218,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2019-09-06 Sold (MLS) $218,000 HCAR
- 2019-04-26 Listed $224,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2019-04-26 Listed $224,900 HCAR
- 2017-12-29 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2017-06-30 Listed $245,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2017-06-30 Listed $245,000 HCAR
- 1989-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
- 1982-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records
Property tax history
+11.2%/yrLatest (2025): $3,573 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…