146 County Road 4827 · Winnsboro, TX 75494

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2006 8,712 sqft lot $155/sqft · at area comps Est $189k · at est. · waterfront

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked away on the shores of beautiful Lake Winnsboro, this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and lakeside living. Set on an expansive 806-acre lake this property is ideal as a full-time residence, weekend getaway, or investment opportunity. Inside, you’ll find a thoughtfully updated interior featuring new ceiling fans, upgraded kitchen and bathroom faucets, and new toilets. Don't miss the "hidden" laundry room behind the pantry doors in the kitchen. Extra insulation adds to the home’s energy efficiency, while a recently installed roof provides peace of mind for years to come. Step outside and take in the real highlight of the property—a spacious 600 sq ft pavilion overlooking the water, complete with a commercial-grade metal roof. It’s the perfect spot for entertaining, relaxing, or simply enjoying the serene lakeview sunsets. Additional features include a large storage shed with two lofts and an RV parking pad with electric and septic connections. Water to the property is provided by an artesian well, meaning no water bills! Whether you enjoy fishing for largemouth bass and crappie, hosting gatherings by the water, or just unwinding in a peaceful setting, this Lake Winnsboro retreat delivers, all with the convenience of being just 10 minutes away from art galleries and shopping in the charming town of Winnsboro or the UT Hospital and Wood County Courthouse in Quitman. Come see your little slice of heaven today!

Key facts

• Hidden laundry room
• 600 sq ft pavilion
• Extra insulation

Tags

• HIDDEN LAUNDRY ROOM
• EXTRA INSULATION
• RECENTLY INSTALLED ROOF
• 600 SQ FT PAVILION
• COMMERCIAL-GRADE METAL ROOF
• LARGE STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is detached; No known restrictions
• Financial info: Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: No association; Community lake

Exterior

• Parking: Additional off-street parking; RV access/parking
• Utilities: Cable available; Electricity connected; Propane; Septic; Well; See remarks
• Home design: Residential mobile home; Single-story
• Construction: Composition roof; Pillar/Post/Pier foundation; Built in 2006
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es); Gutters; RV hookup; RV/boat parking; Waterfront lot with lake access; Uncovered dock; Wood retaining wall

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms; Primary bedroom on main level with ensuite bath
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Cable TV available; Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; One living area; One dining area; Two total bathrooms
• Laundry & utility: See remarks for utility details

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $39 ($464/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (13.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (13.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.8% in Winnsboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#416 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Winnsboro ISD (town): math 46% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #330 of 826 in TX (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Winnsboro El (355 students, 71% FRL); Winnsboro J H (math 48% / reading 40%, grade D, #512 of 1,662 statewide, top 32%, 360 students, 53% FRL); Winnsboro H S (math 67% / reading 62%, grade B-, #199 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 492 students, 65% FRL).
• Market conditions: 220 active listings in the ZIP; 72 units permitted in Wood County in 2024 (29 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wood County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,375 (13.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.72%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $189,000
• List price: $189,000
• Delta: —
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
146 County Road 4827	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,165 (-4%)	1mo	$189,000	$162	92

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-28,173
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-21,397
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75494

• Home prices YoY: -10.9%
• Active inventory: 220
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,634 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $683/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,585

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $146	-5% $92	+0% $39	+5% $-15	+10% $-68
Rent	-10% $-90	-5% $-26	+0% $39	+5% $103	+10% $168
Rate	-1.0pp $134	-0.5pp $87	base $39	+0.5pp $-10	+1.0pp $-60

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-03
   status Pending 1527-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1527 chars)

   Tucked away on the shores of beautiful Lake Winnsboro, this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and lakeside living. Set on an expansive 806-acre lake this property is ideal as a full-time residence, weekend getaway, or investment opportunity. Inside, you’ll find a thoughtfully updated interior featuring new ceiling fans, upgraded kitchen and bathroom faucets, and new toilets. Don't miss the "hidden" laundry room behind the pantry doors in the kitchen. Extra insulation adds to the home’s energy efficiency, while a recently installed roof provides peace of mind for years to come. Step outside and take in the real highlight of the property—a spacious 600 sq ft pavilion overlooking the water, complete with a commercial-grade metal roof. It’s the perfect spot for entertaining, relaxing, or simply enjoying the serene lakeview sunsets. Additional features include a large storage shed with two lofts and an RV parking pad with electric and septic connections. Water to the property is provided by an artesian well, meaning no water bills! Whether you enjoy fishing for largemouth bass and crappie, hosting gatherings by the water, or just unwinding in a peaceful setting, this Lake Winnsboro retreat delivers, all with the convenience of being just 10 minutes away from art galleries and shopping in the charming town of Winnsboro or the UT Hospital and Wood County Courthouse in Quitman. Come see your little slice of heaven today!

2. 2026-05-03
   status Pending 1515-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1527 chars)

   Tucked away on the shores of beautiful Lake Winnsboro, this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and lakeside living. Set on an expansive 806-acre lake this property is ideal as a full-time residence, weekend getaway, or investment opportunity. Inside, you’ll find a thoughtfully updated interior featuring new ceiling fans, upgraded kitchen and bathroom faucets, and new toilets. Don't miss the "hidden" laundry room behind the pantry doors in the kitchen. Extra insulation adds to the home’s energy efficiency, while a recently installed roof provides peace of mind for years to come. Step outside and take in the real highlight of the property—a spacious 600 sq ft pavilion overlooking the water, complete with a commercial-grade metal roof. It’s the perfect spot for entertaining, relaxing, or simply enjoying the serene lakeview sunsets. Additional features include a large storage shed with two lofts and an RV parking pad with electric and septic connections. Water to the property is provided by an artesian well, meaning no water bills! Whether you enjoy fishing for largemouth bass and crappie, hosting gatherings by the water, or just unwinding in a peaceful setting, this Lake Winnsboro retreat delivers, all with the convenience of being just 10 minutes away from art galleries and shopping in the charming town of Winnsboro or the UT Hospital and Wood County Courthouse in Quitman. Come see your little slice of heaven today!

3. 2026-04-22
   listed $189,000 Active 1515-char remark
4. 2026-04-18
   listed $189,000 Active 1527-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1527 chars)

   Tucked away on the shores of beautiful Lake Winnsboro, this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and lakeside living. Set on an expansive 806-acre lake this property is ideal as a full-time residence, weekend getaway, or investment opportunity. Inside, you’ll find a thoughtfully updated interior featuring new ceiling fans, upgraded kitchen and bathroom faucets, and new toilets. Don't miss the "hidden" laundry room behind the pantry doors in the kitchen. Extra insulation adds to the home’s energy efficiency, while a recently installed roof provides peace of mind for years to come. Step outside and take in the real highlight of the property—a spacious 600 sq ft pavilion overlooking the water, complete with a commercial-grade metal roof. It’s the perfect spot for entertaining, relaxing, or simply enjoying the serene lakeview sunsets. Additional features include a large storage shed with two lofts and an RV parking pad with electric and septic connections. Water to the property is provided by an artesian well, meaning no water bills! Whether you enjoy fishing for largemouth bass and crappie, hosting gatherings by the water, or just unwinding in a peaceful setting, this Lake Winnsboro retreat delivers, all with the convenience of being just 10 minutes away from art galleries and shopping in the charming town of Winnsboro or the UT Hospital and Wood County Courthouse in Quitman. Come see your little slice of heaven today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $683 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,459 · $288/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,776/yr (+$231/mo · 406.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,605
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$683
• − Insurance: −$2,448
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,568
• − Management: −$1,568
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$2,747
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$659
• After-tax cash flow: $1,123/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Winnsboro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846200
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $40,192
• Composite: 36.07/100
• National rank: #4769
• State rank: #330 of 826 in TX

Livability — Winnsboro

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #416
• US rank: #8564

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,685

Population outlook (Wood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,480 people
• By 2030: 47,796 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 50,142 · +7.9%
• By 2050: 52,122 · +12.1%
• By 2075: 57,033 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 56,418 · +21.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Iranian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% German/W. Germanic 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.7) · D 14.8% · R 84.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: -54.2pp · 2024: -69.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.7 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+70.0 2012: R+64.2 2008: R+54.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -28.64%
• Current HPI: 234.6203
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2026-05-29 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2026-05-03 Pending — GTAR
• 2026-05-03 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $189,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-18 Listed $189,000 GTAR

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $683 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.