136 Millwood Rd · Lavon, TX 75166

$282,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,504 sqft · SingleFamily · 135 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 4,600 sqft lot $188/sqft · 16% below area Est $336k · 16% under $54/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 21154409 - Built by Trophy Signature Homes - Ready Now! ~ Put down roots in the elegant Cedar. The single-story floor plan feels spacious and welcoming with a lofty foyer and cheery great room. Put tiny artists to work drawing the lush trees dotting your backyard while you put the finishing touches on turkey sandwiches. Cutting them into kite shapes was an inspired idea. They can eat at the beautiful kitchen island before going out to play on the patio. At the end of the day, they can bed down in the secondary bedrooms while you take a warm shower in your lavish primary suite.

Key facts

• 4,600 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $283k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-297 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (15.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (17.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $233k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.5% in Lavon — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#588 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 634 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($249k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $232,642 (17.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.60%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $335,892
• List price: $282,990
• Delta: -15.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
104 Millwood Rd	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,504 (0%)	3mo	$285,490	$190	95
128 Millwood Rd	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,657 (+10%)	1mo	$289,990	$175	81
1153 Del Rio Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,628 (+8%)	1mo	$307,990	$189	78
947 Hazel Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,532 (+2%)	5mo	$284,990	$186	64
970 Dahlia Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,504 (0%)	5mo	$284,990	$189	63
946 Dahlia Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,532 (+2%)	7mo	$284,990	$186	58
910 Dahlia Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,530 (+2%)	7mo	$278,490	$182	58
816 Harrison Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,669 (+11%)	3mo	$300,000	$180	54
971 Dahlia Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,335 (-11%)	2mo	$270,990	$203	45
947 Dahlia Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,335 (-11%)	3mo	$269,990	$202	44
935 Dahlia Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,335 (-11%)	6mo	$264,990	$198	42
922 Dahlia Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,335 (-11%)	7mo	$264,990	$198	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-64,628
• Equity at exit: $42,195

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-80,046
• Equity at exit: $24,468

Cash invested: $79,237 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75166

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Active inventory: 634
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,326 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,484
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$354 /mo · $4,245/yr
• Insurance: −$118
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$489
• Net cashflow: $-297

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,702

Max offer price $240,011

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,748
• Closing costs: $8,490
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
902 Tulip TRL Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2087	$2,500	$1.20	44d	1	0.48mi
453 Harding Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2155	$2,200	$1.02	44d	1	0.67mi
436 Grant Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1755	$2,299	$1.31	4d	1	0.67mi
471 Harding Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1645	$1,950	$1.19	44d	1	0.69mi
778 Camden Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$1,750	$1.07	13d	1	0.72mi
766 Camden Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1802	$6,200	$3.44	3d	1	0.72mi
509 London Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1769	$2,000	$1.13	44d	1	0.74mi
946 Olive Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1628	$2,650	$1.63	7d	1	0.74mi
579 White Water Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1838	$2,000	$1.09	25d	1	0.74mi
476 Eisenhower Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1544	$1,875	$1.21	21d	1	0.75mi
760 Richmond Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1779	$3,000	$1.69	44d	1	0.77mi
736 Richmond Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1884	$2,400	$1.27	25d	1	0.78mi
536 London Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,950	$1.23	15d	1	0.78mi
269 Sunshine Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2072	$2,700	$1.30	44d	1	0.80mi
557 London Dr Unit 557LD Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1769	$2,000	$1.13	7d	1	0.81mi
772 Wellington Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1459	$1,850	$1.27	44d	1	0.83mi
575 London Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,950	$1.23	15d	1	0.84mi
592 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2095	$2,195	$1.05	44d	1	0.85mi
787 Wellington Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1429	$1,900	$1.33	44d	1	0.85mi
590 Arthur Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1556	$1,850	$1.19	44d	1	0.85mi
739 Wellington Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1884	$1,950	$1.04	44d	1	0.86mi
600 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1827	$2,300	$1.26	44d	1	0.87mi
744 Devonshire Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,849	$1.16	6d	1	0.88mi
684 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1634	$1,850	$1.13	44d	1	0.93mi
759 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1827	$2,000	$1.09	13d	1	0.99mi
755 Revere Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1829	$2,100	$1.15	25d	1	1.04mi
865 River Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2068	$2,400	$1.16	5d	1	1.23mi
858 River Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,200	$1.46	17d	1	1.23mi
872 Sunflower Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1237	$2,000	$1.62	7d	1	1.26mi
151 Villas Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	1.0–3.0	871	$2,345	$2.69	1d	108	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $282,990 Active 135 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $282,990 Active 134 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $282,990 Active 133 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $282,990 Active 132 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $282,990 Active 130 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $282,990 Active 129 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $282,990 Active 126 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $282,990 Active 125 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $282,990 Active 124 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $282,990 Active 121 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $282,990 Active 120 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $282,990 Active 119 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $282,990 Active 118 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $282,990 Active 117 DOM
15. 2026-02-03
    price $282,990 588-char remark

    Show marketing remark (588 chars)

    MLS# 21154409 - Built by Trophy Signature Homes - Ready Now! ~ Put down roots in the elegant Cedar. The single-story floor plan feels spacious and welcoming with a lofty foyer and cheery great room. Put tiny artists to work drawing the lush trees dotting your backyard while you put the finishing touches on turkey sandwiches. Cutting them into kite shapes was an inspired idea. They can eat at the beautiful kitchen island before going out to play on the patio. At the end of the day, they can bed down in the secondary bedrooms while you take a warm shower in your lavish primary suite.

16. 2026-01-14
    listed $287,990 Active 588-char remark

    Show marketing remark (588 chars)

    MLS# 21154409 - Built by Trophy Signature Homes - Ready Now! ~ Put down roots in the elegant Cedar. The single-story floor plan feels spacious and welcoming with a lofty foyer and cheery great room. Put tiny artists to work drawing the lush trees dotting your backyard while you put the finishing touches on turkey sandwiches. Cutting them into kite shapes was an inspired idea. They can eat at the beautiful kitchen island before going out to play on the patio. At the end of the day, they can bed down in the secondary bedrooms while you take a warm shower in your lavish primary suite.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone A · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,917
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,852
• − Property taxes: −$4,245
• − Insurance: −$2,917
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,233
• − Management: −$2,233
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$8,232
• Taxable loss: −$8,444
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,027
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,538/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen, good curb appeal, and a spacious floor plan. It is ready for immediate occupancy and can be further enhanced with minor updates to boost its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/tenants.
• Both Upgrading appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lavon

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #588
• US rank: #11230

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 6,989
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,989
• Household income: $132,101
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 41.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 15% Black 7% Asian 4% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.22%
• Current HPI: 221.0
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $282,990 NTREIS
• 2026-01-14 Listed $287,990 NTREIS