18717 Mill Villa Rd #539 · Jamestown, CA 95327

$189,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,393 sqft · Manufactured · 517 Days on market

Built 2025 Est $130k · 47% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome Home to Mill Villa Estates! This beautiful 2025 Skyline Stone Harbor home includes the following: 2 Bedrooms & 2 Bathrooms Approx 1,393 Square Feet 26.8' x 52' Front Porch Carpet & Vinyl Flooring Blinds Throughout Full Kitchen Appliance Package Washer & Dryer Hook-Ups Covered Carport & Storage Shed Great Location & Much More! Serial # 237-001775AB

Key facts

• Built 2025
• Listed 517 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $189,900

Exterior

• Home design: Spec home listed as active; Plan: 18717 Mill Villa #539; Address: 18717 Mill Villa Rd #539, Jamestown, CA 95327
• Construction: Living area approximately 1393

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Virtual tour available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10 ($121/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.9% in Jamestown — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#980 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B; Watch: housing C-, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Sonora Union High (town): math 21% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #243 of 517 in CA (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jamestown Elementary (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,179 of 1,571 statewide, top 78%, 350 students, 75% FRL); Sonora High (math 27% / reading 67%, grade D-, #389 of 1,170 statewide, top 35%, 919 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 517 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $167,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 517 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.23%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $129,549
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18717 Mill Villa Rd #515	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,394 (+0%)	2mo	$130,000	$93	92
18717 Mill Villa Rd #636	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-4%)	3mo	$87,500	$65	85
18717 Mill Villa Rd. #610 #610	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-4%)	4mo	$110,000	$82	84
18717 Mill Villa Rd #310 #310	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-4%)	7mo	$100,000	$74	82
18717 Mill Villa Rd #407 #407	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-4%)	7mo	$118,000	$88	82
18717 Mill Villa Rd. #100 #100	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+3%)	3mo	$151,000	$105	80
18717 Mill Villa Rd #328	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-4%)	10mo	$125,000	$93	80
18717 Mill Villa Rd #314 #314	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-4%)	10mo	$130,000	$97	79
18717 Mill Villa Rd #619	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-4%)	6mo	$130,000	$97	78
18717 Mill Villa #547	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+8%)	1mo	$133,500	$89	75
18615 Vista Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,458 (+5%)	8mo	$330,000	$226	73
11761 Essen Ln	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-4%)	2mo	$242,000	$180	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-30,104
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-25,284
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95327

• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,674 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$237 /mo · $2,848/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,661

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $141	-5% $76	+0% $10	+5% $-56	+10% $-121
Rent	-10% $-122	-5% $-56	+0% $10	+5% $76	+10% $142
Rate	-1.0pp $106	-0.5pp $58	base $10	+0.5pp $-39	+1.0pp $-89

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,900 Active 517 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 514 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 513 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,900 Active 512 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,900 Active 511 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $189,900 Active 509 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,900 Active 508 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,900 Active 506 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,900 Active 505 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $189,900 Active 504 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,900 Active 503 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $189,900 Active 500 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,900 Active 499 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,900 Active 498 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 497 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 496 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $189,900 Active 495 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,088
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$2,848
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,607
• − Management: −$1,607
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$3,086
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$741
• After-tax cash flow: $862/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sonora Union High
• NCES district ID: 0637260
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $40,252
• Composite: 33.41/100
• National rank: #5470
• State rank: #243 of 517 in CA

Livability — Jamestown

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #980
• US rank: #24642

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime B Employment F Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jamestown, CA
• Population (ZIP): 8,799

Population outlook (Tuolumne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,349 people
• By 2030: 48,708 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 45,284 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 42,575 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 36,827 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 30,369 · -39.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 13% Black 7% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuolumne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.9) · D 37.9% · R 59.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -21.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.9 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+20.9 2012: R+15.9 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -129.96%
• Current HPI: 100.2616
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B