103 Vista Ave · Ferndale, MD 21061

$300,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,566 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1955 5,500 sqft lot Est $407k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 5,500 sq ft lot
• Built 1955
• Listed 24 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $41 ($488/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (11.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $265k (11.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.5% in Ferndale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#128 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: cost of living C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Anne Arundel County Public Schools (suburban): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #10 of 24 in MD (top 42%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Monarch Global Academy Pcs Laurel Campus (math 13% / reading 28%, grade F, #341 of 860 statewide, top 40%, 830 students, 53% FRL); Lindale Middle (math 9% / reading 35%, grade F, #125 of 225 statewide, top 58%, 1,178 students, 59% FRL); North County High (math 33% / reading 58%, grade D-, #121 of 222 statewide, top 55%, 2,451 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 25% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 142 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,303 units permitted in Anne Arundel County in 2024 (299 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anne Arundel County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $264,921 (11.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.37%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $407,160
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
104 Baltimore Ave	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,612 (+3%)	3mo	$315,000	$195	86
402 Glenmont Ave	0.27mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,710 (+9%)	1mo	$416,000	$243	64
1463 Gordon Dr	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,466 (-6%)	2mo	$457,000	$312	64
1628 Pleasantville Dr	0.51mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,496 (-4%)	2mo	$405,000	$271	62
1531 Tieman Dr	0.53mi	4/2.0	1,680 (+7%)	2mo	$372,000	$221	60
205 Wicklow Rd	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,525 (-3%)	3mo	$458,000	$300	56
804 Bentwillow Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,696 (+8%)	0mo	$385,000	$227	54
1420 Rowe Dr	0.47mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,416 (-10%)	2mo	$365,000	$258	53
3 Belvedere Ave	0.59mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,440 (-8%)	1mo	$470,000	$326	47
819 Bentwillow Dr	0.52mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,346 (-14%)	0mo	$350,000	$260	45
1633 Tieman Dr	0.60mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,344 (-14%)	1mo	$360,000	$268	41
216 Allwood Dr	0.74mi	4/3.0	1,786 (+14%)	1mo	$445,000	$249	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-43,657
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-24,801
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21061

• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 142
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,649 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$298 /mo · $3,581/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$556
• Net cashflow: $41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,598

Max offer price $300,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $210	-5% $126	+0% $41	+5% $-44	+10% $-129
Rent	-10% $-169	-5% $-64	+0% $41	+5% $145	+10% $250
Rate	-1.0pp $192	-0.5pp $117	base $41	+0.5pp $-37	+1.0pp $-116

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
105 Dinsmore Ave Glen Burnie, MD	3.0	2.5	1731	$2,800	$1.62	19d	1	0.13mi
1515 Baby Baer Ct Glen Burnie, MD	4.0	3.0	1900	$3,550	$1.87	45d	1	0.31mi
1407 Gordon Dr Glen Burnie, MD	3.0	2.0	1404	$2,750	$1.96	25d	1	0.49mi
323 Lindera Ct Glen Burnie, MD	4.0	2.5	1240	$2,200	$1.77	19d	1	0.81mi
906 Rosedale Ave Glen Burnie, MD	3.0	2.0	1128	$3,000	$2.66	3d	1	0.86mi
220 Poplar Ave Glen Burnie, MD	3.0	1.0	1512	$2,250	$1.49	19d	1	0.90mi
6455 Heritage Hill Dr Glen Burnie, MD	3.0	1.5	1152	$1,700	$1.48	5d	1	1.13mi
6401 Jefferson Pl Glen Burnie, MD	3.0	1.5	1216	$1,895	$1.56	4d	1	1.20mi
101 S Charter Rd Glen Burnie, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	823	$1,845	$2.24	0d	1	1.21mi
6456 Washington Sq Glen Burnie, MD	3.0	1.5	1216	$1,799	$1.48	23d	1	1.22mi
6449 Union Ct Glen Burnie, MD	3.0	1.5	1152	$2,200	$1.91	45d	1	1.25mi
6319 Harris Heights Ave Glen Burnie, MD	3.0	1.5	1280	$2,200	$1.72	25d	1	1.26mi
1 Brownshade Dr Glen Burnie, MD	3.0	1.0	2085	$2,900	$1.39	25d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-23
   listed $300,000 Active
3. 2026-02-14
   historical
4. 2026-01-15
   price $330,000
5. 2025-11-06
   listed $345,000 Active
6. 2025-11-03
   historical
7. 2025-04-10
   historical
8. 2025-03-26
   listed $345,000 Active
9. 2024-01-30
   soldstatus $300,000
10. 2024-01-24
    soldstatus $300,000 Closed
11. 2024-01-11
    status Pending
12. 2023-12-24
    historical Active Under Contract
13. 2023-12-20
    listed $300,000 Active
14. 2023-12-17
    historical $300,000
15. 2016-10-06
    soldstatus $120,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,581 · $298/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,581 · $298/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,791
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$3,581
• − Insurance: −$2,166
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,543
• − Management: −$2,543
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$4,576
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,098
• After-tax cash flow: $1,586/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anne Arundel County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400060
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $87,880
• Composite: 28.52/100
• National rank: #6733
• State rank: #10 of 24 in MD

Livability — Ferndale

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #128
• US rank: #5483

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living C- Crime F Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ferndale, MD
• County: Anne Arundel County · 535,653 people
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 57,230
• Household income: $87,751
• Rent vs Own: 43.7% rent · 56.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2134.0

Population outlook (Anne Arundel County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 617,384 people
• By 2030: 642,094 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 686,621 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 723,031 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 809,346 · +31.1%
• By 2100: 837,658 · +35.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 26% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Anne Arundel

• 2024 margin: D (+13.9) · D 55.7% · R 41.7% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +15.7pp toward D · 2008: -1.8pp · 2024: 13.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.9 2020: D+14.5 2016: D+0.7 2012: R+0.9 2008: R+1.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -341.00%
• Current HPI: 300.196
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.87%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+150.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $300,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-14 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $330,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-06 Listed $345,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-03 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-04-10 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-03-26 Listed $345,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $300,000 Public Records
• 2024-01-24 Sold (MLS) $300,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-01-11 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-12-24 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-12-20 Listed $300,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-12-17 Coming Soon $300,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-10-06 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,581 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.