6114 Grand Oaks Dr SE · Winter Haven, FL 33884

$175,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1988 6,990 sqft lot $65/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A great 2BD/2BA home in Garden Grove Oaks - one of SE Winter Haven's most desirable 55+ mobile home communities. Lots are owned, with monthly maintenance fee of only $33/month. This home has quality throughout: insulated windows, new roof, enclosed porch.

Key facts

• Waterfront view
• Large lot
• Stone counter tops

Tags

• WATERFRONT VIEW
• LARGE LOT
• AMENITY-RICH COMMUNITY
• COMPLETELY REMODELED KITCHEN
• STONE COUNTER TOPS
• CUSTOM PULL-OUT CABINETRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Total annual fees $780; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA with monthly fee of $65; Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, common area taxes, and grounds maintenance; Association approval required; Deed restrictions; Senior community; Cats and dogs allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Driveway; Open parking; Golf cart parking; 2-space carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One story; Faces east
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as manufactured home
• Exterior features: Enclosed rear porch; Patio/porch; Rain gutters; Shade shutters; Sliding doors; Storage shed; Pond view (pond with fountain and picnic area)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Stone counters
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Stone counters; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $179 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $170k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 680 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $175k implies a 119% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.38%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-18,888
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-9,494
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33884

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 680
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,801 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$188 /mo · $2,261/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$65
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $179

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,575

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5608 Lake Fox Cir Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1490	$2,400	$1.61	23d	1	0.87mi
1019 Mockingbird Cir Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,650	$0.99	14d	1	0.96mi
612 Heather Glen Loop Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1709	$2,000	$1.17	23d	1	1.02mi
36 Enclave Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1532	$1,990	$1.30	23d	1	1.16mi
1707 Eagle Pond Dr Unit 1707 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1017	$1,450	$1.43	23d	1	1.21mi
1015 Lake Forest Blvd Winter Haven, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	929	$1,840	$1.98	2d	24	1.21mi
1202 Eagle Pond Dr Unit 1202 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1017	$1,450	$1.43	14d	1	1.24mi
508 Eagle Pond Dr #508 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1017	$1,500	$1.47	23d	1	1.24mi
1101 Eagle Pond Dr #1101 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1017	$1,400	$1.38	23d	1	1.27mi
728 Lake Ned Rd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1664	$2,000	$1.20	23d	1	1.27mi
4025 Lake Ned Village Cir Winter Haven, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$1,530	$1.49	3d	8	1.32mi
7676 Carlton Arms Blvd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	1.0–2.5	987	$1,508	$1.53	23d	1	1.44mi
616 Crystals Blvd Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1575	$1,900	$1.21	23d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $65 · $780/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,000 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $175,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-04-23
    listed $175,000 Active
16. 2004-11-30
    soldstatus $80,000
17. 2004-11-23
    soldstatus $80,000 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    A great 2BD/2BA home in Garden Grove Oaks - one of SE Winter Haven's most desirable 55+ mobile home communities. Lots are owned, with monthly maintenance fee of only $33/month. This home has quality throughout: insulated windows, new roof, enclosed porch.

18. 2004-10-08
    listed $87,000 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    A great 2BD/2BA home in Garden Grove Oaks - one of SE Winter Haven's most desirable 55+ mobile home communities. Lots are owned, with monthly maintenance fee of only $33/month. This home has quality throughout: insulated windows, new roof, enclosed porch.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,261 · $188/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,261 · $188/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,614
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,261
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,729
• − Management: −$1,729
• − HOA: −$780
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$654
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$157
• After-tax cash flow: $2,304/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,561
• Household income: $70,443
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 949.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 12% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.69%
• Current HPI: 260.1421
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.90%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+101.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2004-11-23 Sold (MLS) $80,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-10-08 Listed $87,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,261 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.