17213 English Chestnut Way · Odessa, FL 34638

$309,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,463 sqft · Land · 68 Days on market

Built 2026 $58/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. The builder is offering buyers up to $25,000 towards closing costs with the use of a preferred lender and title company. Westwood brings new homes to Land O’ Lakes and it is just minutes from the Suncoast Parkway. The community, located in a very desirable area, offers a pool, cabana, playground, dog park, passive park, and paved trails. The Tampa airport and downtown Tampa are both just a short 30-minute drive away. The schools are all excellently rated and not far from the community. Westwood will feature our townhomes - thoughtfully designed, open-concept floor plans to suit every lifestyle. Each home is built with durable concrete block construction on the firs

Key facts

• Dog park
• Passive park
• Paved trails

Tags

• POOL
• CABANA
• PLAYGROUND
• DOG PARK
• PASSIVE PARK
• PAVED TRAILS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home is part of a community with developer permit number 2025-000401; Living area reported by builder (1,463 sq ft); total building area 1,725 sq ft; Builder license CBC039052
• Financial info: Other annual assessment $2,225; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Access Management; Monthly HOA fee $58 (covers maintenance of grounds); Association approval required; Amenities: clubhouse, pool, playground; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage (11 x 20); Parking pad
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Residential townhouse; Two levels; Under construction (projected completion July 30, 2026); South-facing
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; New construction; Slab foundation; Builder: D.R. Horton (Model: PEARSON B)
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Irrigation equipment; Community pool; Community playground; Community park

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Blinds; Double pane windows; Electric water heater; Home comes with a builder-provided home warranty
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-185 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (10.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (24.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.3% in Odessa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#389 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities D-, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wesley Chapel Elementary School (math 67% / reading 68%, grade B+, #435 of 2,144 statewide, top 21%, 828 students, 37% FRL); Wesley Chapel High School (math 52% / reading 58%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 1,826 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 712 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $234,567 (24.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.55%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-68,892
• Equity at exit: $46,221

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-101,813
• Equity at exit: $26,802

Cash invested: $86,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34638

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.8%
• Active inventory: 712
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,346 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax from tax record: −$225 /mo · $2,699/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$58
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $-185

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,579

Max offer price $277,379

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,498
• Closing costs: $9,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17260 English Chestnut Way Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1463	$2,200	$1.50	24d	1	0.04mi
17208 English Chestnut Way Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1463	$2,100	$1.44	24d	1	0.04mi
17256 Amber Aspen Way Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	3.0	1673	$2,100	$1.26	24d	1	0.05mi
3664 Clay Pot Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	3.0	1844	$2,695	$1.46	24d	1	0.28mi
3245 Bellericay Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1464	$2,255	$1.54	24d	1	0.34mi
16947 Kettle Ln Land O' Lakes, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1042	$2,525	$2.42	1d	15	0.47mi
17031 Ongar Ct Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1158	$2,145	$1.85	1d	1	0.54mi
17026 Ongar Ct Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1292	$2,140	$1.66	2d	1	0.56mi
3249 Downan Point Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.0	1825	$2,575	$1.41	4d	1	0.67mi
2841 Girvan Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1755	$2,295	$1.31	4d	1	0.77mi
16885 Amaranth Dr Land O'lakes, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1106	$2,876	$2.60	2d	34	0.99mi
2878 Suncoast Plains Dr Odessa, FL	3.0	2.5	1758	$2,395	$1.36	10d	1	1.27mi
17583 Bellavista Loop Lutz, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	994	$2,323	$2.34	3d	30	1.39mi
2179 Azure View Way Lutz, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,375	$1.45	10d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $58 · $696/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-08
   price $309,990
3. 2026-03-11
   price $310,990
4. 2026-02-26
   listed $312,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,699 · $225/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,699 · $225/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,148
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,364
• − Property taxes: −$2,699
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,252
• − Management: −$2,252
• − HOA: −$696
• − Depreciation: −$9,018
• Taxable loss: −$7,683
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,844
• After-tax cash flow: $-371/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Odessa

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #389
• US rank: #6856

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 35,755
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,644
• Household income: $123,899
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 354.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 16% Black 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 4% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.02%
• Current HPI: 299.2018
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.78%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-1.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $309,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $310,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Listed $312,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+285.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,699 · +12.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.