2830 Macklem Ave · Niagara Falls, NY 14305

$150,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,372 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1920 3,600 sqft lot Est $152k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This beautiful Deveaux area home has been well taken care of for many years. Lots of updates throughout including: Roof 2022, energy efficient furnace, central air, and electrical. Inside has a very nice set up with 1 upper and 1 lower bathroom, formal dining room, luxury vinyl, new carpets and a full attic for plenty of storage. Outside features a great front porch, new sidewalks, a very nice shed, and private parking in the rear. A must see!

Key facts

• Roof 2022
• Great front porch
• Formal dining room

Tags

• ROOF 2022
• ENERGY EFFICIENT FURNACE
• CENTRAL AIR
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• FULL ATTIC
• GREAT FRONT PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $202 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.77%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $152,292
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2830 Macklem Ave	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,372 (0%)	0mo	$161,000	$117	96
2863 Macklem Ave	0.06mi	3/1.0	1,451 (+6%)	6mo	$109,999	$76	82
2946 Mckoon Ave	0.17mi	3/1.5	1,291 (-6%)	4mo	$90,000	$70	77
3742 Mckoon Ave	0.38mi	3/1.5	1,364 (-1%)	6mo	$101,200	$74	74
1315 Maple Ave	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,412 (+3%)	2mo	$158,000	$112	62
2817 10th St	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (+6%)	8mo	$70,000	$48	61
4011 Bell St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-2%)	4mo	$150,000	$111	61
3915 Deveaux St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,460 (+6%)	0mo	$120,000	$82	60
939 Grove Ave	0.42mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,190 (-13%)	5mo	$180,000	$151	49
3823 Macklem Ave	0.42mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,566 (+14%)	2mo	$272,000	$174	48
1112 College Ave	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,246 (-9%)	11mo	$165,000	$132	43
1137 North Ave	0.63mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,206 (-12%)	7mo	$10,000	$8	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-11,425
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $6,717
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14305

• Home prices YoY: -10.9%
• Active inventory: 142
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,578 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$196 /mo · $2,346/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $202

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,322

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $287	-5% $244	+0% $202	+5% $159	+10% $117
Rent	-10% $77	-5% $139	+0% $202	+5% $264	+10% $326
Rate	-1.0pp $277	-0.5pp $240	base $202	+0.5pp $163	+1.0pp $123

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3025 Macklem Ave Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.5	1750	$2,200	$1.26	44d	1	0.19mi
2814 10th St Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$900	$1.00	2d	1	0.27mi
1817 Ontario Ave Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	999	$1,899	$1.90	2d	1	1.01mi
1817 Ontario Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	985	$1,899	$1.93	2d	1	1.01mi
642 Ashland Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1238	$1,100	$0.89	4d	1	1.22mi
1808 Whitney Ave Unit 3 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$900	$0.75	44d	1	1.36mi
784 15th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.5	1380	$1,350	$0.98	4d	1	1.44mi
2463 South Ave Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,100	$1.09	18d	1	1.44mi
1001 17th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,800	$1.56	24d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-03
   listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,346 · $196/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,441 · $203/mo
• Expected delta: +$94/yr (+$8/mo · 4.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,933
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,346
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,515
• − Management: −$1,515
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $42
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$10
• After-tax cash flow: $2,412/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 16,696
• Household income: $51,004
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1095.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 24% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.08%
• Current HPI: 350.8741
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-03 Listed $150,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+9.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,346 · +22.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.