Is 2201 Bakersfield Dr in Fort Worth, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D+ with a 5.6% cap rate and $-177/mo modeled cash flow at a $305,490 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 2201 Bakersfield Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 5.6% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,553/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D+ Composite 46.16

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +15.0/15.0
Cash flow +10.1/30.0
Condition / age +5.0/5.0
Livability +4.0/5.0
1% rule +3.4/10.0
Rent growth +3.1/5.0
DSCR +2.9/10.0
Schools +2.7/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$305,490

2201 Bakersfield Dr · Fort Worth, TX 76036

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,477 sqft · SingleFamily · 70 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 5,998 sqft lot 2-car garage $207/sqft · 32% below area Est $448k · 32% under $83/mo HOA · 3% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Beautiful new D. R. Horton home in the Longhorn Estates community located in Fort Worth and Crowley ISD! The single-story Baylor floorplan, Elevation C, with an estimated Summer completion, offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage with a bright open-concept design ideal for modern living. The family room, dining area, and contemporary kitchen flow together seamlessly, creating a welcoming and functional central gathering space. The chef-inspired kitchen features quartz countertops, 36” upper cabinets with hardware, stainless steel appliances, a gas range, stainless steel sink, center island, and a walk-in pantry for convenient storage.

Key facts

Open-concept design
Quartz countertops
Oversized shower

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $305k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-177 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $280k (8.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $255k (16.4% below list).
Recommended offer: $255k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.9% in Fort Worth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
Crowley ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #643 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: S H Crowley El (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 512 students, 66% FRL); H F Stevens Middle (math 16% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,387 of 1,662 statewide, top 85%, 747 students, 84% FRL); Crowley H S (math 23% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 2,351 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 52% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 1275 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 38d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($287k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $255,332 (16.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.84% ✗
Cap rate: 5.60%
Cash-on-cash: -2.48%
DSCR: 0.89
GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $447,892
List price: $305,490
Delta: -31.79%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11133 Lone Ranger Ln	1.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,448 (-2%)	1mo	$309,990	$214	56
5024 Cervinae Rd	1.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,420 (-4%)	2mo	$289,990	$204	52
2201 Johnny Cash Dr	1.41mi	4/2.0	1,606 (+9%)	2mo	$318,290	$198	49
2220 White Buffalo Way	1.37mi	4/2.0	1,606 (+9%)	2mo	$319,990	$199	49
10620 Diamond Mine Dr	1.37mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,405 (-5%)	2mo	$302,990	$216	48
2212 White Buffalo Way	1.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,573 (+6%)	1mo	$319,990	$203	48
2224 Bakersfield Dr	1.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,328 (-10%)	1mo	$296,990	$224	42
2209 Waylon Dr	1.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,332 (-10%)	2mo	$298,990	$224	42
2213 White Buffalo Way	1.38mi	4/2.0	1,841 (+25%)	1mo	$333,365	$181	39
10616 Diamond Mine Dr	1.37mi	4/2.5	1,729 (+17%)	1mo	$328,990	$190	37
10909 Lone Ranger Ln	1.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,201 (-19%)	1mo	$288,990	$241	34
5045 Wellborn Rd	1.47mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,721 (+16%)	0mo	$299,990	$174	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -21.2%
Equity multiple: 0.27×
Total profit: $-62,526
Equity at exit: $45,550

10-year hold

IRR: -16.5%
Equity multiple: 0.11×
Total profit: $-76,031
Equity at exit: $26,413

Cash invested: $85,537 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 6 active · 5 under contract
Median asking: $313,490 ($195/sqft)
Median days on market: 70 d
This list price: 17% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +55.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76036

Home prices YoY: -25.2%
Rents YoY: 2.3%
Active inventory: 1275
Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,553 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,602
Tax est. 1.5%: −$382 /mo · $4,582/yr
Insurance: −$127
HOA: −$83
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$536
Net cashflow: $-177

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,777

Max offer price $279,871

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $34	-5% $-71	+0% $-177	+5% $-283	+10% $-388
Rent	-10% $-379	-5% $-278	+0% $-177	+5% $-76	+10% $25
Rate	-1.0pp $-23	-0.5pp $-99	base $-177	+0.5pp $-256	+1.0pp $-337

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $76,372
Closing costs: $9,165
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6629 Coyote Valley Trl Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1659	$2,250	$1.36	0d	1	0.02mi
4932 Water Lily Ln Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1848	$2,595	$1.40	62d	1	1.42mi
5021 Chital Dr Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1536	$2,200	$1.43	0d	1	1.46mi
5041 Wellborn Rd Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1519	$2,300	$1.51	38d	1	1.47mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Minerals retained by developerSpecial listing condition: Builder
Financial info: Listing offered for sale (cash, conventional, FHA, VA accepted)Loan payment type includes principal, interest, taxes & insuranceNo second mortgage noted
HOA & community: Mandatory associationAnnual HOA fee ($1,000) covering management fees (managed by VCM, Inc.)Community poolJogging/bike pathParkPlaygroundSidewalks

Exterior

Parking: Attached 2-car garage (2 covered spaces, 2 garage spaces) with garage facing front and 2-car single doorGarage approximately 18' wide by 20' deep
Security: Smoke detectors
Utilities: City waterCity sewerIndividual water meterIndividual gas meterNatural gas availableElectricity connectedCable availablePhone availableSewer availableCommunity mailboxConcrete curbsSidewalksUnderground utilities
Home design: Single-family residenceOne-storyNew construction (incomplete)Smart home features included
Construction: Built 2026 (new construction - incomplete)Brick, fiber cement, frame, and rock/stone exterior materialsComposition roofSlab foundation
Exterior features: Covered rear porchCovered porch(es)Landscaped yardFew treesSprinkler systemWood fencing in back yardSubdivision settingUtilities easement for utilities

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas rangeMicrowaveWater line to refrigeratorPlumbed for gas in kitchen
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level with separate shower and walk-in closetThree additional bedrooms on main level
Flooring: CarpetLuxury vinyl plank
Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas)Central air (electric)
Interior features: Open floorplanEat-in kitchenKitchen islandGranite countersPantryCable TV availableSmart home systemVented exhaust fan
Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer areaWasher hookupElectric dryer hookupUtility roomSeparate utility room (adjacent to a bedroom)Tankless water heaterGas water heater

HOA detail $83/mo · $996/yr

Likely covers: gas

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $305,490 Active 70 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $305,490 Active 68 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $305,490 Active 67 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $305,490 Active 66 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $305,490 Active 65 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $305,490 Active 62 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $305,490 Active 60 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $305,490 Active 59 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $305,490 Active 57 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $305,490 Active 55 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $305,490 Active 54 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $305,490 Active 53 DOM
2026-07-21

pricedays on market $305,490 Active 52 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $307,990 Active 51 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $307,990 Active 49 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $307,990 Active 48 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $307,990 Active 47 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $307,990 Active 46 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $307,990 Active 45 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $307,990 Active 44 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $307,990 Active 43 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $307,990 Active 42 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $307,990 Active 41 DOM
2026-07-09

pricedays on market $307,990 Active 40 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $309,990 Active 38 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $309,990 Active 37 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $309,990 Active 36 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $309,990 Active 35 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $309,990 Active 34 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $309,990 Active 33 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $309,990 Active 32 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $309,990 Active 31 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $309,990 Active 30 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $309,990 Active 29 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $309,990 Active 27 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $309,990 Active 25 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $309,990 Active 23 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $309,990 Active 22 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $309,990 Active 19 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $309,990 Active 18 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $309,990 Active 17 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $309,990 Active 16 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $309,990 Active 14 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $309,990 Active 13 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $309,990 Active 10 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $309,990 Active 9 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $309,990 Active 8 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $309,990 Active 5 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $309,990 Active 4 DOM
2026-06-02

days on market $309,990 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $30,640
− Mortgage interest: −$17,112
− Property taxes: −$4,582
− Insurance: −$1,527
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,451
− Management: −$2,451
− HOA: −$996
− Depreciation: −$8,887
Taxable loss: −$7,368

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,768
After-tax cash flow: $-356/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-story home in Longhorn Estates is move-in ready with excellent condition and a bright open-concept design.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
Both Landscaping — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑
Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading to high-end appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 27/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary S H Crowley El F TX #2,791/4,322 Nat'l #28,475/41,679 Middle Richard Allie Middle F TX #1,279/1,662 Nat'l #10,474/14,009 High Crowley H S F TX #1,112/1,632 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Crowley ISD
NCES district ID: 4815910
Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -15.00%
Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
Median HH income: $59,810
Composite: 25.04/100
National rank: #7549
State rank: #643 of 826 in TX

A Composite livability gradescore 80/100

Livability — Fort Worth

Score: 80/100
State rank: #49
US rank: #1954

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Tarrant County · 2,380,417 people
City population: 911,619
Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Population (ZIP): 36,044
Household income: $97,973
Rent vs Own: 23.7% rent · 76.3% own
Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 20% Two or more races 14% Asian 2%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23% Puerto Rican 2%
Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -80.45%
Current HPI: 238.6365
Rent YoY: ▲ 2.28%
Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-1.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

2026-06-01 Price Changed $309,990 NTREIS
2026-05-30 Listed $312,990 NTREIS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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