Oxford Plan · Waller, TX 77484

$244,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,707 sqft · SingleFamily · 591 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $244,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $250,950.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-118 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (4.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (16.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.3% in Waller — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,003 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: I T Holleman El (math 33% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 688 students, 70% FRL); Waller J H (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 899 students, 69% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 1496 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 591 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $204,563 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 591 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.02%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $250,950
• List price: $244,990
• Delta: -2.37%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
377 Tejas Trl	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,601 (-6%)	0mo	$278,900	$174	84
363 Kingston Way	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,601 (-6%)	5mo	$281,900	$176	84
341 Grayson Baw Ln	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-2%)	6mo	$243,990	$146	80
309 Tejas Trl	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,552 (-9%)	5mo	$282,900	$182	74
333 Fastboy Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,552 (-9%)	2mo	$272,900	$176	74
308 Tejas Trl	0.03mi	4/2.5	1,891 (+11%)	7mo	$266,990	$141	72
337 Tejas Trl	0.09mi	4/2.5	1,891 (+11%)	8mo	$223,090	$118	70
429 Tejas Trl	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,859 (+9%)	8mo	$283,990	$153	69
320 Kingston Way	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,552 (-9%)	7mo	$282,900	$182	66
305 Tejas Trl	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,474 (-14%)	5mo	$240,990	$163	66
312 Tejas Trl	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,474 (-14%)	7mo	$236,990	$161	64
337 Grayson Baw Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,474 (-14%)	6mo	$237,990	$161	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-54,157
• Equity at exit: $37,417

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-79,896
• Equity at exit: $21,698

Cash invested: $70,266 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 31 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 26.6 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $280,990 ($172/sqft)
• Median days on market: 40 d
• This list price: 16% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -14.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77484

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.8%
• Active inventory: 1496
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,046 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,316
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$314 /mo · $3,764/yr
• Insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $-118

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,195

Max offer price $233,845

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $55	-5% $-31	+0% $-118	+5% $-205	+10% $-292
Rent	-10% $-280	-5% $-199	+0% $-118	+5% $-37	+10% $43
Rate	-1.0pp $8	-0.5pp $-54	base $-118	+0.5pp $-183	+1.0pp $-249

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,737
• Closing costs: $7,528
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
305 Fastboy Ln Waller, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1950	$2,322	$1.19	0d	1	0.03mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $244,990 Active 591 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $244,990 Active 589 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $244,990 Active 588 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $244,990 Active 587 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $244,990 Active 586 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $244,990 Active 583 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $244,990 Active 581 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $244,990 Active 580 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $244,990 Active 578 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $244,990 Active 576 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $244,990 Active 575 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $244,990 Active 574 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $244,990 Active 573 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $244,990 Active 572 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $244,990 Active 569 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $244,990 Active 568 DOM
17. 2026-07-15
    days on market $244,990 Active 567 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $244,990 Active 566 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $244,990 Active 565 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $244,990 Active 564 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $244,990 Active 563 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $244,990 Active 562 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $244,990 Active 561 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $244,990 Active 559 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $244,990 Active 558 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $244,990 Active 557 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $244,990 Active 556 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $244,990 Active 555 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $244,990 Active 554 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $244,990 Active 553 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $244,990 Active 552 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $244,990 Active 551 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $244,990 Active 550 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    pricedays on market $244,990 Active 549 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $250,990 Active 548 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $250,990 Active 546 DOM
37. 2026-06-21
    days on market $250,990 Active 543 DOM
38. 2026-06-18
    days on market $250,990 Active 540 DOM
39. 2026-06-17
    days on market $250,990 Active 539 DOM
40. 2026-06-16
    days on market $250,990 Active 538 DOM
41. 2026-06-15
    days on market $250,990 Active 537 DOM
42. 2026-06-13
    days on market $250,990 Active 535 DOM
43. 2026-06-09
    days on market $250,990 Active 531 DOM
44. 2026-06-08
    days on market $250,990 Active 530 DOM
45. 2026-06-07
    days on market $250,990 Active 529 DOM
46. 2026-06-04
    days on market $250,990 Active 526 DOM
47. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,990 Active 525 DOM
48. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,990 Active 524 DOM
49. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,990 Active 523 DOM
50. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,990 Active 522 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,548
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,057
• − Property taxes: −$3,764
• − Insurance: −$1,255
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,964
• − Management: −$1,964
• − Depreciation: −$7,300
• Taxable loss: −$5,756
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,382
• After-tax cash flow: $-37/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a spacious floorplan and modern finishes, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Interior paint touch-ups — Enhances interior appearance and value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary I T Holleman El F TX #2,268/4,322 Nat'l #24,950/41,679 Middle Waller J H F TX #1,279/1,662 Nat'l #10,474/14,009

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Waller

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1003
• US rank: #17792

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 60,772 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,348
• Household income: $81,250
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

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Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.17%
• Current HPI: 397.85
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+2.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-04-30 Price Changed $250,990 Zillow
• 2024-12-25 Listed $245,990 Zillow