4106 Madden Ln · Houston, TX 77047

$90,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,466 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 77 Days on market

Built 1957 6,146 sqft lot $36/sqft · 58% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a investment opportunity home needs a lot of TLC

Key facts

• 6,146 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1957

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $85k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 280 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $84,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.90% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 62.18%
• DSCR: 3.77
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $215,360
• List price: $90,000
• Delta: -58.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11417 Lucky Falls Dr	0.40mi	4/3.5	2,334 (-5%)	4mo	$359,000	$154	67
11419 Galway Grove Dr	0.42mi	4/3.5	2,334 (-5%)	7mo	$364,362	$156	63
3318 Vine Terrace Trce	0.50mi	4/3.5	2,339 (-5%)	4mo	$375,000	$160	63
11413 Lucky Falls Dr	0.40mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,313 (-6%)	2mo	$349,095	$151	62
11425 Blossom Square St	0.45mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,316 (-6%)	7mo	$372,863	$161	56
11415 Blossom Square St	0.46mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,299 (-7%)	5mo	$375,000	$163	56
3334 Vine Terrace Trce	0.45mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,299 (-7%)	8mo	$369,999	$161	54
3331 Young Clover Trl	0.50mi	4/3.5	2,339 (-5%)	15mo	$394,995	$169	54
3319 Young Clover Way	0.53mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,299 (-7%)	14mo	$366,005	$159	46
4510 Bungalow Ln	0.36mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,100 (-15%)	12mo	$163,000	$78	41
11719 Greenshire Dr	0.60mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,100 (-15%)	6mo	$295,000	$140	35
11415 Velvet Field Dr	0.53mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,103 (-15%)	13mo	$353,990	$168	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 57.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.42×
• Total profit: $61,058
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.21×
• Total profit: $131,196
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77047

• Home prices YoY: -10.1%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 280
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,610 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$247 /mo · $2,960/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$548
• Net cashflow: $1,306

Break-even live

Break-even rent $957

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4510 Bungalow Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2100	$1,995	$0.95	43d	1	0.37mi
12320 Chesney Downs Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2000	$3,500	$1.75	2d	1	0.83mi
12210 Roandale Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1738	$1,775	$1.02	43d	1	0.83mi
3013 Maughan Heights Trl Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2386	$5,000	$2.10	1d	1	0.94mi
3020 Gunnersbury Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$1,499	$0.90	14d	1	1.10mi
2920 Stamford Hill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1690	$2,200	$1.30	43d	1	1.21mi
2937 Amherst Meadow Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1820	$2,450	$1.35	21d	1	1.38mi
2937 Amherst Meadow Ln Unit NA Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1820	$2,400	$1.32	4d	1	1.38mi
2706 Skyview Downs Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2464	$2,200	$0.89	1d	1	1.38mi
9606 Ashville Dr Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1610	$1,570	$0.98	43d	1	1.42mi
10514 Wellesley Terrace Trl Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1843	$2,300	$1.25	17d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   pricestatusdays on market $90,000 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Pending 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $110,000 Pending 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Pending 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $110,000 Pending 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $110,000 Pending 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Pending 63 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    statusdays on market $110,000 Pending 62 DOM
12. 2026-04-20
    status Active 56-char remark

    Show marketing remark (56 chars)

    This is a investment opportunity home needs a lot of TLC

13. 2026-02-19
    status Pending 56-char remark

    Show marketing remark (56 chars)

    This is a investment opportunity home needs a lot of TLC

14. 2026-02-07
    status Pending 56-char remark

    Show marketing remark (56 chars)

    This is a investment opportunity home needs a lot of TLC

15. 2026-01-28
    listed $110,000 Active 56-char remark

    Show marketing remark (56 chars)

    This is a investment opportunity home needs a lot of TLC

16. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,960 · $247/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,960 · $247/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,321
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$2,960
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,506
• − Management: −$2,506
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $15,240
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,658
• After-tax cash flow: $12,012/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,987
• Household income: $78,538
• Rent vs Own: 27.6% rent · 72.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1109.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 15% White 6% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 23% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.76%
• Current HPI: 239.2287
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-28 Listed $110,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,960 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.