4409 S Valley View Ln · Guthrie, OK 73034

$219,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 22 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1985 1.86 ac lot $2/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LIGHTING & SPEAKERS. SOME NEW CARPET, VINYL, PAINT. KITCHEN ISLE WITH DOWN DRAFT COOKTOP. HOME IS WIRED FOR SATTELITE & SURROUND SOUND. GARDEN DOORS LEAD TO A BRICK PATIO & PARK LIKE PLAY AREA. SPRINKLER SYS SOLD "AS IS". A MUST SEE INSIDE! LOTS OF EXTRAS! EASY TO SHOW!

Key facts

• Private deck
• Shared pond
• Country living

Tags

• COUNTRY LIVING
• MATURE TREES
• OPEN GREEN SPACE
• SHARED POND
• PRIVATE DECK
• WILDLIFE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory association dues; Association fee $25 (includes grounds maintenance)

Exterior

• Utilities: Natural gas available; Septic tank; Private well available
• Home design: Single-family manufactured home; One level; North-facing; Residential property, existing
• Construction: Manufactured construction; Shingle roof; Aluminum frame windows; Conventional foundation; Built previously (existing)
• Exterior features: Open deck; Porch; Outbuildings; Rain gutters; Chain link fencing; Interior lot; Wooded lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing range (gas); Free-standing oven (electric)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Other
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Septic tank; Private well available; Natural gas available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-269 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $171k (21.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (41.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (41.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.1% in Guthrie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#15 in OK, #4,696 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Guthrie (town): math 24% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #119 of 270 in OK (top 44%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Charter Oak Es (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #255 of 845 statewide, top 35%, 467 students, 0% FRL); Guthrie Jhs (math 23% / reading 19%, grade F, #149 of 345 statewide, top 44%, 496 students, 0% FRL); Guthrie Hs (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #125 of 447 statewide, top 31%, 1,025 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 55% district-wide (55 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 771 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 102 units permitted in Logan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 14% of the median local income ($110k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Logan County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $128,089 (41.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.27%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 14.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-53,422
• Equity at exit: $32,654

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-71,770
• Equity at exit: $18,935

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73034

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 771
• Price-to-rent: 14.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,281 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $475/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$2
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $-269

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,622

Max offer price $171,411

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-145	-5% $-207	+0% $-269	+5% $-331	+10% $-655
Rent	-10% $-371	-5% $-320	+0% $-269	+5% $-219	+10% $-168
Rate	-1.0pp $-159	-0.5pp $-214	base $-269	+0.5pp $-326	+1.0pp $-384

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3312 Gwendolyn Ln Edmond, OK	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,395	$1.27	0d	1	0.89mi
3208 Marla Ln Edmond, OK	3.0	1.5	1088	$1,525	$1.40	0d	1	0.98mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $2 · $24/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $219,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $219,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $219,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $219,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $219,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,000 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,000 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    remarks 693-char remark
16. 2026-05-31
    listed $219,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $475 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,971 · $164/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,496/yr (+$125/mo · 314.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,371
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$475
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,230
• − Management: −$1,230
• − HOA: −$24
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable loss: −$7,321
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,757
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,476/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Guthrie
• NCES district ID: 4013560
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $45,370
• Composite: 20.79/100
• National rank: #8513
• State rank: #119 of 270 in OK

Livability — Guthrie

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #4696

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Oklahoma County · 771,644 people
• City population: 25,398
• Metro: Oklahoma City, OK
• Population (ZIP): 48,831
• Household income: $109,700
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1198.0

Population outlook (Logan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,683 people
• By 2030: 60,011 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 68,071 · +22.2%
• By 2050: 75,815 · +36.2%
• By 2075: 94,749 · +70.2%
• By 2100: 108,057 · +94.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 4% Black 3% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Logan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.0) · D 24.4% · R 73.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: -37.4pp · 2024: -49.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.0 2020: R+47.1 2016: R+49.5 2012: R+44.8 2008: R+37.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -164.67%
• Current HPI: 223.1391
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.49%
• Metro: Oklahoma City, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+305.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $219,000 MLSOK
• 2025-09-12 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2000-06-28 Sold (MLS) $52,000 MLSOK
• 2000-06-27 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records
• 2000-02-08 Listed $54,000 MLSOK

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $475 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.