Dover Plan · Ruskin, FL 34219

$321,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,555 sqft · SingleFamily · 956 Days on market

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 956 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 13627 Sunset Sapphire Ct, Parrish FL 34219; Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $318,900

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family home, Dover plan; Inventory type: Plan
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,555 (per listing)
• Exterior features: New construction home; Part of the Dover plan in a planned community

Interior

• Kitchen: Included as part of new construction plan (Dover)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (total)
• Interior features: Open-concept living area

🏗️ New construction. The $321,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $324,995.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $322k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $63 ($760/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $292k (9.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $283k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Virgil Mills Elementary School (math 69% / reading 65%, grade B+, #450 of 2,144 statewide, top 22%, 818 students, 43% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2194 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 956 days — a 12% lower offer ($283k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $283,272 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 956 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.84%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $324,995
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12442 Radiant Crystal Rose	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,555 (0%)	9mo	$304,250	$196	79
12969 Shining Blue Nile Ln	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,555 (0%)	11mo	$324,900	$209	69
13819 Sawmill St	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-4%)	1mo	$303,000	$202	62
13149 Merlot Sunstone Cv	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,555 (0%)	19mo	$310,000	$199	62
13126 Empress Jewel Trl	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,448 (-7%)	10mo	$299,900	$207	61
13241 Sunset Sapphire Ct	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,448 (-7%)	19mo	$299,900	$207	61
13146 Empress Jewel Trl	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,448 (-7%)	12mo	$314,900	$217	60
13012 Merlot Sunstone Cv	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,555 (0%)	19mo	$334,900	$215	60
12414 Sweet Angel Aura Way Ct	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,448 (-7%)	13mo	$314,900	$217	60
13139 Empress Jewel Trl	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,448 (-7%)	12mo	$309,900	$214	60
13224 Sunset Sapphire Ct	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,448 (-7%)	18mo	$299,900	$207	59
14259 Sawmill St	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,768 (+14%)	6mo	$405,000	$229	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-57,152
• Equity at exit: $48,458

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-77,501
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $90,999 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2194
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,923 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$406 /mo · $4,875/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$614
• Net cashflow: $63

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,843

Max offer price $324,995

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $288	-5% $176	+0% $63	+5% $-49	+10% $-161
Rent	-10% $-168	-5% $-52	+0% $63	+5% $179	+10% $294
Rate	-1.0pp $227	-0.5pp $146	base $63	+0.5pp $-21	+1.0pp $-107

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,249
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13420 Noble Garnet Ln Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1767	$2,250	$1.27	5d	1	0.28mi
12805 Crystal Jade Way Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2162	$2,800	$1.30	5d	1	0.33mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $321,900 Active 956 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $321,900 Active 953 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $321,400 Active 953 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $321,400 Active 952 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $321,400 Active 951 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   price $321,400 Active 950 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $320,900 Active 950 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $320,900 Active 948 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $320,900 Active 947 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $320,900 Active 945 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $320,900 Active 944 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    pricedays on market $320,900 Active 943 DOM
13. 2026-06-08
    pricedays on market $320,400 Active 942 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $319,400 Active 938 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $319,400 Active 937 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $319,400 Active 936 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $319,400 Active 935 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,078
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$4,875
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,806
• − Management: −$2,806
• − Depreciation: −$9,454
• Taxable loss: −$4,694
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,126
• After-tax cash flow: $1,886/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B