12872 NE Keeney Rd · Elgin, OK 73538

$315,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,113 sqft · Land public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1999 4.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 2218 sq ft country home features 4 bedrooms, 2 1/2 baths. A wraparound porch brings comfort and tranquility to this amazing property. Beautiful oak cabinets, trim and granite countertops adorn this oversized kitchen. The oversized master bedroom has a large walk-in closet. The master bath has a jacuzzi and shower. Vinyl windows, water softener, central vac, and saferoom are just a few of the amenities in the beautiful home. Call Sue @ 580-512-1942 for more information. This property could go commercial. It is outside of the city limits.

Key facts

• Safe room
• Huge country kitchen
• Horse stalls

Tags

• HUGE COUNTRY KITCHEN
• EXPANSIVE WRAPAROUND PORCH
• OVERSIZED 2 CAR GARAGE
• SAFE ROOM
• LARGE SHOP
• HORSE STALLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exemption claimed; Property is existing (not new construction); Livestock allowed
• Financial info: Assumable financing possible; Loan qualification possible
• HOA & community: No mandatory association dues

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Security: Safe room / storm shelter
• Utilities: Property has standard utilities (water/sewer/power not specified)
• Home design: Single family residence; One level; Residential property
• Construction: Brick construction; Heavy comp roof (re-roofed in 2020); Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Rain gutters; Stable on property; Workshop; Cross-fenced pasture

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating
• Interior features: In-law plan / separate living quarters; No fireplace reported

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-465 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (26.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (36.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (36.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#17 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Elgin (rural): math 29% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #38 of 270 in OK (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Elgin Es (math 36% / reading 33%, grade F, #168 of 845 statewide, top 24%, 945 students, 0% FRL); Elgin Hs (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #42 of 447 statewide, top 10%, 771 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 29% district-wide (29 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 133 units permitted in Comanche County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Comanche County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $268k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,426 (36.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.32%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $141,912
• Equity at exit: $283,777

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.00×
• Total profit: $441,084
• Equity at exit: $611,976

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73538

• Home prices YoY: 22.9%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 13.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,004 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$265 /mo · $3,179/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $-465

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,592

Max offer price $232,910

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-286	-5% $-376	+0% $-465	+5% $-554	+10% $-643
Rent	-10% $-623	-5% $-544	+0% $-465	+5% $-386	+10% $-306
Rate	-1.0pp $-306	-0.5pp $-385	base $-465	+0.5pp $-546	+1.0pp $-629

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1517 Stonehouse Dr Elgin, OK	4.0	2.0	1565	$1,700	$1.09	22d	1	0.17mi
1534 Stonehouse Dr Elgin, OK	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,975	$1.16	25d	1	0.20mi
1205 Alma Dr Elgin, OK	4.0	2.0	1800	$1,900	$1.06	13d	1	0.57mi
313 Marilyn Glover Dr Elgin, OK	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,650	$1.03	25d	1	0.80mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-02
   listed $315,000 Active
3. 2020-01-30
   soldstatus $268,000
4. 2020-01-29
   soldstatus $268,000 547-char remark

   Show marketing remark (547 chars)

   This 2218 sq ft country home features 4 bedrooms, 2 1/2 baths. A wraparound porch brings comfort and tranquility to this amazing property. Beautiful oak cabinets, trim and granite countertops adorn this oversized kitchen. The oversized master bedroom has a large walk-in closet. The master bath has a jacuzzi and shower. Vinyl windows, water softener, central vac, and saferoom are just a few of the amenities in the beautiful home. Call Sue @ 580-512-1942 for more information. This property could go commercial. It is outside of the city limits.

5. 2019-08-06
   listed $268,000 547-char remark

   Show marketing remark (547 chars)

   This 2218 sq ft country home features 4 bedrooms, 2 1/2 baths. A wraparound porch brings comfort and tranquility to this amazing property. Beautiful oak cabinets, trim and granite countertops adorn this oversized kitchen. The oversized master bedroom has a large walk-in closet. The master bath has a jacuzzi and shower. Vinyl windows, water softener, central vac, and saferoom are just a few of the amenities in the beautiful home. Call Sue @ 580-512-1942 for more information. This property could go commercial. It is outside of the city limits.

6. 2016-03-10
   soldstatus $235,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,179 · $265/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,179 · $265/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,051
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$3,179
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,924
• − Management: −$1,924
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$11,360
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,726
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,850/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin
• NCES district ID: 4010710
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $65,900
• Composite: 29.77/100
• National rank: #6432
• State rank: #38 of 270 in OK

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #5411

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Comanche County · 96,361 people
• City population: 7,128
• Metro: Lawton, OK
• Population (ZIP): 7,128
• Household income: $91,324
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 70.0

Population outlook (Comanche County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 124,518 people
• By 2030: 124,231 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 122,193 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 120,368 · -3.3%
• By 2075: 120,492 · -3.2%
• By 2100: 123,113 · -1.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 13% Native American 4% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Comanche

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.3) · D 37.4% · R 60.7% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: -17.5pp · 2024: -23.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.3 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+23.7 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 45.70%
• Current HPI: 245.4249
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lawton, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+34.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — MLSOK
• 2026-04-02 Listed $315,000 MLSOK
• 2020-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $268,000 Public Records
• 2020-01-29 Sold (MLS) $268,000 LBRMLS
• 2019-08-06 Listed $268,000 LBRMLS
• 2016-03-10 Sold (Public Records) $235,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,179 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.