31322 Harp Ridge Dr · Fulshear, TX 77441

$287,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,544 sqft · SingleFamily · 9 Days on market

Built 2026 Fair condition Est $281k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• ARV discount +6.4/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Dalton at Tamarron is a 1,544 sq ft plan offering 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms located in Fulshear, Texas. Past the first bedroom and garage access, the entry opens up into the open concept living, dining, and kitchen area. This main living space features gorgeous granite countertops, a corner pantry, and stainless steel appliances. The view from the living room through the large windows looks out onto the covered patio and backyard, a space designed for both everyday use and entertaining guests. The remaining 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms are adjacent to the main living space. The Primary suite provides plenty of natural light and a spacious walk in closet, as well as a luxurious prima

Key facts

• Corner pantry
• Covered patio
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• GORGEOUS GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• CORNER PANTRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• COVERED PATIO
• SPACIOUS WALK IN CLOSET
• LUXURIOUS PRIMARY BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $287,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; 2 parking spaces total
• Home design: Single-family property; Spec-built new construction
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,544

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (DALTON plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $288k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $194 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $277k (4.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $277k (4.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.1% in Fulshear — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#430 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1242 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($184k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $276,518 (4.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.89%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $281,008
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31138 Winchester Falls Ct	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,692 (+10%)	2mo	$294,990	$174	70
31266 Whistledown Ln	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,748 (+13%)	1mo	$309,990	$177	69
3906 Langridge Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,575 (+2%)	3mo	$309,990	$197	69
31135 Royal Acres Ct	0.31mi	4/2.0	1,750 (+13%)	2mo	$309,990	$177	62
31138 Brighton Mill Ct	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,748 (+13%)	4mo	$321,990	$184	62
31147 Warwick Coast Ct	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,748 (+13%)	4mo	$334,990	$192	59
3723 Langridge Dr	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,750 (+13%)	3mo	$318,990	$182	58
31130 Warwick Coast Ct	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,748 (+13%)	4mo	$300,000	$172	58
31106 Brighton Mill Ct	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,750 (+13%)	5mo	$321,990	$184	57
3815 Langridge Dr	0.35mi	4/2.0	1,748 (+13%)	6mo	$304,990	$174	57
31619 Featherstone Trl	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,472 (-5%)	9mo	$270,000	$183	52
3911 Langridge Dr	0.48mi	4/2.0	1,750 (+13%)	5mo	$304,990	$174	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-42,356
• Equity at exit: $42,940

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-52,100
• Equity at exit: $24,900

Cash invested: $80,637 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77441

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1242
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,765 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,510
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$360 /mo · $4,320/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$581
• Net cashflow: $194

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,519

Max offer price $287,990

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $393	-5% $294	+0% $194	+5% $95	+10% $-5
Rent	-10% $-24	-5% $85	+0% $194	+5% $303	+10% $413
Rate	-1.0pp $339	-0.5pp $268	base $194	+0.5pp $120	+1.0pp $44

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,998
• Closing costs: $8,640
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3714 Sloane Peak Ln Fulshear, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1713	$2,397	$1.40	0d	25	0.63mi
30131 Ousel Falls Ln Brookshire, TX	3.0	2.0	1574	$2,150	$1.37	45d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $287,990 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $287,990 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $287,990 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $287,990 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $287,990 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-10
   listed $287,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,182
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,132
• − Property taxes: −$4,320
• − Insurance: −$1,440
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,655
• − Management: −$2,655
• − Depreciation: −$8,378
• Taxable loss: −$2,397
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$575
• After-tax cash flow: $2,906/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home requires moderate renovations, focusing on painting, updating fixtures, and landscaping to enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen backsplash — No backsplash visible.
• Minor Bathroom fixtures — Standard fixtures.
• Minor Paint touch-ups — No visible paint issues.
• Minor Window treatments — No treatments visible.
• Minor Landscaping — No landscaping visible.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting throughout — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Window treatments — Adding curtains or blinds improves privacy and enhances the home's curb appeal.
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping increases curb appeal and property value.
• Resale Kitchen backsplash — A backsplash can add value and functionality to the kitchen space.
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgrading fixtures can improve the bathroom's functionality and appearance, enhancing resale value.
• Both HVAC maintenance — Regular HVAC maintenance ensures the system runs efficiently and can add to the home's value.
• Rental Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can attract renters and add to the home's rental value.
• Rental Kitchen backsplash — A backsplash can add value and functionality to the kitchen space, making it more appealing to renters.
• Rental Bathroom fixtures — Upgrading fixtures can improve the bathroom's functionality and appearance, enhancing rental value.
• Rental HVAC maintenance — Regular HVAC maintenance ensures the system runs efficiently and can add to the home's rental value.
• Rental Paint touch-ups — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the home more appealing to renters.
• Rental Window treatments — Adding curtains or blinds improves privacy and enhances the home's curb appeal, making it more appealing to renters.
• Rental Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping increases curb appeal and property value, making it more appealing to renters.
• Resale Kitchen backsplash — A backsplash can add value and functionality to the kitchen space, enhancing resale value.
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgrading fixtures can improve the bathroom's functionality and appearance, enhancing resale value.
• Resale HVAC maintenance — Regular HVAC maintenance ensures the system runs efficiently and can add to the home's resale value.
• Resale Paint touch-ups — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the home more appealing to buyers.
• Resale Window treatments — Adding curtains or blinds improves privacy and enhances the home's curb appeal, making it more appealing to buyers.
• Resale Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping increases curb appeal and property value, making it more appealing to buyers.
• Resale Kitchen backsplash — A backsplash can add value and functionality to the kitchen space, enhancing resale value.
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgrading fixtures can improve the bathroom's functionality and appearance, enhancing resale value.
• Resale HVAC maintenance — Regular HVAC maintenance ensures the system runs efficiently and can add to the home's resale value.
• Resale Paint touch-ups — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the home more appealing to buyers.
• Resale Window treatments — Adding curtains or blinds improves privacy and enhances the home's curb appeal, making it more appealing to buyers.
• Resale Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping increases curb appeal and property value, making it more appealing to buyers.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen backsplash · No backsplash visible.	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom fixtures · Standard fixtures.	Minor	$500–3,000
Paint touch-ups · No visible paint issues.	Minor	$500–3,000
Window treatments · No treatments visible.	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · No landscaping visible.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$2,500–15,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting throughout — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Window treatments — Adding curtains or blinds improves privacy and enhances the home's curb appeal. ↑
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping increases curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Kitchen backsplash — A backsplash can add value and functionality to the kitchen space. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgrading fixtures can improve the bathroom's functionality and appearance, enhancing resale value. ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — Regular HVAC maintenance ensures the system runs efficiently and can add to the home's value. ↑
• Rental Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can attract renters and add to the home's rental value. ↑
• Rental Kitchen backsplash — A backsplash can add value and functionality to the kitchen space, making it more appealing to renters. ↑
• Rental Bathroom fixtures — Upgrading fixtures can improve the bathroom's functionality and appearance, enhancing rental value. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — Regular HVAC maintenance ensures the system runs efficiently and can add to the home's rental value. ↑
• Rental Paint touch-ups — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the home more appealing to renters. ↑
• Rental Window treatments — Adding curtains or blinds improves privacy and enhances the home's curb appeal, making it more appealing to renters. ↑
• Rental Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping increases curb appeal and property value, making it more appealing to renters. ↑
• Resale Kitchen backsplash — A backsplash can add value and functionality to the kitchen space, enhancing resale value. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgrading fixtures can improve the bathroom's functionality and appearance, enhancing resale value. ↑
• Resale HVAC maintenance — Regular HVAC maintenance ensures the system runs efficiently and can add to the home's resale value. ↑
• Resale Paint touch-ups — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the home more appealing to buyers. ↑
• Resale Window treatments — Adding curtains or blinds improves privacy and enhances the home's curb appeal, making it more appealing to buyers. ↑
• Resale Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping increases curb appeal and property value, making it more appealing to buyers. ↑
• Resale Kitchen backsplash — A backsplash can add value and functionality to the kitchen space, enhancing resale value. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgrading fixtures can improve the bathroom's functionality and appearance, enhancing resale value. ↑
• Resale HVAC maintenance — Regular HVAC maintenance ensures the system runs efficiently and can add to the home's resale value. ↑
• Resale Paint touch-ups — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the home more appealing to buyers. ↑
• Resale Window treatments — Adding curtains or blinds improves privacy and enhances the home's curb appeal, making it more appealing to buyers. ↑
• Resale Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping increases curb appeal and property value, making it more appealing to buyers. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fulshear

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #430
• US rank: #8901

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 41,324
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,324
• Household income: $184,390
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 301.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 4% Chinese 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.74%
• Current HPI: 275.8798
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.63%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B