14953 SE 107th Ave · The Villages, FL 34491

$229,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,916 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 85 Days on market

Built 1974 0.40 ac lot $120/sqft · 27% below area Est $316k · 27% under · waterfront

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Tucked away in Summerfield, this unique two story home offers a blend of character, comfort and natural beauty. Featuring 2 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms, the layout is thoughtfully designed with separate living zones and plenty of inviting space to relax. Surrounded by mature trees and set along a small canal connecting to Lake Weir, the home provides a peaceful, private setting with a true Florida feel. Enjoy the outdoors from not one, but two decks, or unwind on the screened-in front porch. Inside, the home showcases colorful walls throughout the main floor and loft area, adding personality and warmth to the space. The two A/C units enhances comfort and efficiency, with one unit dedicated to the second story and rear of the home, and another serving the front. Additionally, this home features a newer roof (2022) and the wiring for a camera security system. Right down the road is The Anchor Restaurant, Eaton's Beach and Gator Joe's are also just a short drive away. If you're looking for a home with charm, versatility, and connection to nature, this Summerfield gem is one that you won't want to miss. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Small canal
• Two decks
• Two a c units

Tags

• TWO STORY HOME
• MATURE TREES
• SMALL CANAL
• TWO DECKS
• SCREENED IN FRONT PORCH
• TWO A C UNITS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $541 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $230k).
• Recommended offer: $216k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 5.0% in The Villages — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Harbour View Elementary School (math 41% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,513 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 819 students, 71% FRL); Lake Weir Middle School (math 37% / reading 33%, grade F, #416 of 571 statewide, top 74%, 1,207 students, 76% FRL); Lake Weir High School (math 23% / reading 34%, grade F, #458 of 667 statewide, top 69%, 1,483 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: 712 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $230k implies a 411% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,106 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.08%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $316,066
• List price: $229,900
• Delta: -27.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14595 SE 99th Ave	0.90mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,950 (+2%)	21mo	$405,000	$208	36
15664 SE 97th Ave	1.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,738 (-9%)	11mo	$420,000	$242	31
15642 SE 97th Ave	1.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,754 (-8%)	19mo	$335,000	$191	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,914
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $41,420
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34491

• Home prices YoY: -35.0%
• Active inventory: 712
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,427 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $903/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$510
• Net cashflow: $541

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,743

Max offer price $229,900

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $671	-5% $606	+0% $541	+5% $476	+10% $410
Rent	-10% $349	-5% $445	+0% $541	+5% $636	+10% $732
Rate	-1.0pp $656	-0.5pp $599	base $541	+0.5pp $481	+1.0pp $420

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10325 SE 144th Pl Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	2335	$3,500	$1.50	22d	1	0.74mi
11001 SE Sunset Harbor Rd Summerfield, FL	2.0	1.5–2.0	1244	$1,770	$1.42	22d	2	1.28mi
10326 SE 162nd Place Rd Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1419	$2,300	$1.62	15d	1	1.39mi
13973 SE 96th Cir Summerfield, FL	2.0	1.0	2200	$2,200	$1.00	22d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $229,900 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,900 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,900 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,900 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,900 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $229,900 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,900 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $229,900 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,900 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $229,900 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,900 Active 71 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,900 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,900 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,900 Active 65 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,900 Active 64 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $229,900 Active 63 DOM
17. 2026-04-21
    price $229,900 1192-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1192 chars)

    One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Tucked away in Summerfield, this unique two story home offers a blend of character, comfort and natural beauty. Featuring 2 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms, the layout is thoughtfully designed with separate living zones and plenty of inviting space to relax. Surrounded by mature trees and set along a small canal connecting to Lake Weir, the home provides a peaceful, private setting with a true Florida feel. Enjoy the outdoors from not one, but two decks, or unwind on the screened-in front porch. Inside, the home showcases colorful walls throughout the main floor and loft area, adding personality and warmth to the space. The two A/C units enhances comfort and efficiency, with one unit dedicated to the second story and rear of the home, and another serving the front. Additionally, this home features a newer roof (2022) and the wiring for a camera security system. Right down the road is The Anchor Restaurant, Eaton's Beach and Gator Joe's are also just a short drive away. If you're looking for a home with charm, versatility, and connection to nature, this Summerfield gem is one that you won't want to miss. Schedule your showing today!

18. 2026-03-28
    listed $235,000 Active 1192-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1192 chars)

    One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Tucked away in Summerfield, this unique two story home offers a blend of character, comfort and natural beauty. Featuring 2 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms, the layout is thoughtfully designed with separate living zones and plenty of inviting space to relax. Surrounded by mature trees and set along a small canal connecting to Lake Weir, the home provides a peaceful, private setting with a true Florida feel. Enjoy the outdoors from not one, but two decks, or unwind on the screened-in front porch. Inside, the home showcases colorful walls throughout the main floor and loft area, adding personality and warmth to the space. The two A/C units enhances comfort and efficiency, with one unit dedicated to the second story and rear of the home, and another serving the front. Additionally, this home features a newer roof (2022) and the wiring for a camera security system. Right down the road is The Anchor Restaurant, Eaton's Beach and Gator Joe's are also just a short drive away. If you're looking for a home with charm, versatility, and connection to nature, this Summerfield gem is one that you won't want to miss. Schedule your showing today!

19. 2026-01-01
    historical
20. 2025-11-18
    price $235,000
21. 2025-05-03
    price $254,709
22. 2025-04-04
    listed $279,900 Active
23. 2004-02-06
    soldstatus $45,000
24. 2004-02-06
    soldstatus $45,000
25. 1998-03-04
    soldstatus $40,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $903 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,908 · $159/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,005/yr (+$84/mo · 111.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,123
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$903
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,330
• − Management: −$2,330
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable income: $2,845
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$683
• After-tax cash flow: $5,805/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,318
• Household income: $66,679
• Rent vs Own: 13.2% rent · 86.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 256.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.67%
• Current HPI: 200.0792
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+462.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $229,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-28 Listed $235,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $235,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-03 Price Changed $254,709 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-04 Listed $279,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-02-06 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2004-02-06 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 1998-03-04 Sold (Public Records) $40,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $903 · +32.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.