861 Camilla Lake Rd · Cape Royale, TX 77331

$189,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 67 Days on market

Built 2024 0.34 ac lot $206/sqft · 11% below area $20/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This spacious double-wide mobile home is designed for functionality and is perfectly situated in a desirable lakefront subdivision on Lake Livingston, offering access to a private boat ramp and low HOA fees. The home features laminate flooring throughout making for easy maintenance and a clean comfortable feel. Enjoy relaxing on the covered front and back porches, ideal for soaking in the surroundings. Inside, the open-concept layout includes a spacious kitchen that overlooks the living room and flows seamlessly into a separate dining area. A den provides additional space for gatherings, hobbies, or entertainment. The primary bedroom offers a private retreat with an ensuite bath featuring dual sinks and a stand-alone shower. Outside is a 2-car carport with an attached workshop area that is fully wired with electricity—great for projects and storage. Take advantage of lake living with easy access to boating, fishing, and outdoor recreation just moments from your doorstep.

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Private boat ramp
• Large family den

Tags

• LAKEFRONT SUBDIVISION
• PRIVATE BOAT RAMP
• COVERED FRONT AND BACK PORCHES
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• LARGE FAMILY DEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $132 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (14.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (14.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 2.5% in Cape Royale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,203 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, housing A, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Coldspring-Oakhurst CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #732 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Street El (449 students, 70% FRL); Lincoln J H (math 14% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,387 of 1,662 statewide, top 85%, 347 students, 58% FRL); Coldspring-Oakhurst H S (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,044 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 496 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 364 active listings in the ZIP; 575 units permitted in San Jacinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Jacinto County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,745 (14.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.98%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $440,000
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: -56.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-22,448
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-9,045
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77331

• Active inventory: 364
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,617 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $611/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$20
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $132

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,450

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $239	-5% $186	+0% $132	+5% $78	+10% $24
Rent	-10% $4	-5% $68	+0% $132	+5% $196	+10% $260
Rate	-1.0pp $228	-0.5pp $180	base $132	+0.5pp $83	+1.0pp $33

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $20 · $240/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,900 Pending 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $189,900 Pending 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Pending 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Pending 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   status $189,900 Pending 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,900 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,900 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $189,900 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,900 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $189,900 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $189,900 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $189,900 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,900 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,900 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,900 Active 48 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 47 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 46 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $189,900 Active 45 DOM
19. 2026-05-17
    price $189,900 991-char remark

    Show marketing remark (991 chars)

    This spacious double-wide mobile home is designed for functionality and is perfectly situated in a desirable lakefront subdivision on Lake Livingston, offering access to a private boat ramp and low HOA fees. The home features laminate flooring throughout making for easy maintenance and a clean comfortable feel. Enjoy relaxing on the covered front and back porches, ideal for soaking in the surroundings. Inside, the open-concept layout includes a spacious kitchen that overlooks the living room and flows seamlessly into a separate dining area. A den provides additional space for gatherings, hobbies, or entertainment. The primary bedroom offers a private retreat with an ensuite bath featuring dual sinks and a stand-alone shower. Outside is a 2-car carport with an attached workshop area that is fully wired with electricity—great for projects and storage. Take advantage of lake living with easy access to boating, fishing, and outdoor recreation just moments from your doorstep.

20. 2026-04-15
    listed $199,900 Active 991-char remark

    Show marketing remark (991 chars)

    This spacious double-wide mobile home is designed for functionality and is perfectly situated in a desirable lakefront subdivision on Lake Livingston, offering access to a private boat ramp and low HOA fees. The home features laminate flooring throughout making for easy maintenance and a clean comfortable feel. Enjoy relaxing on the covered front and back porches, ideal for soaking in the surroundings. Inside, the open-concept layout includes a spacious kitchen that overlooks the living room and flows seamlessly into a separate dining area. A den provides additional space for gatherings, hobbies, or entertainment. The primary bedroom offers a private retreat with an ensuite bath featuring dual sinks and a stand-alone shower. Outside is a 2-car carport with an attached workshop area that is fully wired with electricity—great for projects and storage. Take advantage of lake living with easy access to boating, fishing, and outdoor recreation just moments from your doorstep.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $611 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,475 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,865/yr (+$239/mo · 469.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,409
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$611
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,553
• − Management: −$1,553
• − HOA: −$240
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$1,658
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$398
• After-tax cash flow: $1,981/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Coldspring-Oakhurst CISD
• NCES district ID: 4814520
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,916
• Composite: 20.07/100
• National rank: #8653
• State rank: #732 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cape Royale

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1203
• US rank: #21032

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment D- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,348

Population outlook (San Jacinto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,069 people
• By 2030: 29,750 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 30,714 · +5.7%
• By 2050: 31,010 · +6.7%
• By 2075: 31,616 · +8.8%
• By 2100: 29,874 · +2.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 13% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Jacinto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.3) · D 17.0% · R 82.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.0pp toward R · 2008: -38.3pp · 2024: -65.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.3 2020: R+61.9 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+38.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -146.98%
• Current HPI: 199.0493
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $189,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $199,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

-5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $611 · -5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.