10167 Drawbridge Ct · Mechanicsville, VA 23116

$369,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,094 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1989 0.34 ac lot Est $471k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• Schools +7.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't wait to see this 4 bdrm, 2.5 bath, Colonial. This homes' features include a rear staircase, a wood burning fireplace in the family rm, & berber carpeting that's just 2 yrs old. The kitchen has a breakfast area w/ skylights. 1 car garage & a lg storage shed with elec. Lg, double wide, black top drive. Gutters and fenced rear yard.

Key facts

• Sliding glass doors
• Sunny morning room
• Screened porch

Tags

• SOUGHT-AFTER NEIGHBORHOOD
• WIDE CUL-DE-SAC
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• SLIDING GLASS DOORS
• SCREENED PORCH
• SUNNY MORNING ROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car); Driveway parking; Off-street paved parking; Garage with door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Two-story home; Resale property; Composition roof; Brick, block, hardboard and drywall construction
• Construction: Built using brick, block, hardboard and drywall; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Rear screened porch; Storage shed; Paved driveway; Fenced backyard; Level topography; Landscaped; Cul-de-sac lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Oven; Electric cooking; Dishwasher; Pantry; Laminate counters; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Includes primary bedroom with private bath
• Flooring: Laminate; Linoleum; Partially carpeted; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Electric heating; Central air conditioning; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Cathedral ceilings; Separate/formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Fireplace (wood burning); Laminate counters; Pantry; Skylights; Walk-in closet(s); Sliding doors; Skylight(s)
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $369k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-119 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $348k (5.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $286k (22.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $286k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.1% in Mechanicsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#165 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hanover County Public School District (suburban): math 79% / reading 81% proficiency, ranked #5 of 131 in VA (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 183 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 447 units permitted in Hanover County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hanover County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $210k; list at $369k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $286,241 (22.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.38%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $471,150
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9322 Ravensworth Ct	0.08mi	4/2.5	2,127 (+2%)	6mo	$475,000	$223	89
10157 Peridot Ct	0.11mi	4/3.0	2,024 (-3%)	0mo	$450,000	$222	87
10072 Beechwood Dr	0.37mi	4/2.5	2,132 (+2%)	3mo	$462,000	$217	77
10052 Beechwood Dr	0.45mi	4/2.5	2,126 (+2%)	2mo	$405,000	$190	75
10247 Finlandia Ln	0.36mi	4/2.5	2,208 (+5%)	3mo	$383,000	$173	71
10288 Smythes Cottage Way	0.49mi	4/2.5	2,197 (+5%)	3mo	$526,000	$239	67
10292 Wanchese Way	0.60mi	4/2.5	2,079 (-1%)	7mo	$469,950	$226	65
9288 Kings Charter Dr	0.52mi	4/2.5	1,961 (-6%)	0mo	$512,000	$261	65
10288 Wanchese Way	0.58mi	4/2.5	2,066 (-1%)	7mo	$470,000	$227	64
10311 Aynhoe Ct	0.66mi	4/2.5	2,150 (+3%)	4mo	$475,000	$221	61
9315 Plymouth Pl	0.18mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,780 (-15%)	1mo	$400,000	$225	59
10101 Ashley Manor Ln	0.62mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,285 (+9%)	3mo	$519,900	$228	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-67,430
• Equity at exit: $55,019

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-68,719
• Equity at exit: $31,904

Cash invested: $103,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23116

• Home prices YoY: -9.5%
• Active inventory: 183
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,862 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,935
• Tax from tax record: −$291 /mo · $3,497/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$601
• Net cashflow: $-119

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,013

Max offer price $347,991

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $90	-5% $-14	+0% $-119	+5% $-223	+10% $-328
Rent	-10% $-345	-5% $-232	+0% $-119	+5% $-6	+10% $107
Rate	-1.0pp $67	-0.5pp $-25	base $-119	+0.5pp $-215	+1.0pp $-312

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,250
• Closing costs: $11,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9207 Abingdon Manor Ct Mechanicsville, VA	4.0	3.0	2257	$2,750	$1.22	22d	1	0.61mi
10312 Colony Bee Pl Mechanicsville, VA	3.0	2.5	2137	$2,600	$1.22	45d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $369,000 Pending 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $369,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $369,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $369,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $369,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $369,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-10
   listed $369,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,497 · $291/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,497 · $291/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,349
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,670
• − Property taxes: −$3,497
• − Insurance: −$1,845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,748
• − Management: −$2,748
• − Depreciation: −$10,735
• Taxable loss: −$7,893
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,894
• After-tax cash flow: $467/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hanover County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101830
• Math proficiency: 79% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 81% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $78,386
• Composite: 70.37/100
• National rank: #268
• State rank: #5 of 131 in VA

Livability — Mechanicsville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #165
• US rank: #5098

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hanover County · 134,767 people
• City population: 72,258
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 34,188
• Household income: $141,711
• Rent vs Own: 9.2% rent · 90.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 193.0

Population outlook (Hanover County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,687 people
• By 2030: 115,373 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 120,828 · +8.2%
• By 2050: 123,591 · +10.7%
• By 2075: 132,168 · +18.3%
• By 2100: 130,105 · +16.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hanover

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.8) · D 36.6% · R 62.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.8pp toward D · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -25.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.8 2020: R+26.8 2016: R+32.5 2012: R+36.7 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.62%
• Current HPI: 253.8652
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+218.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Listed $369,000 CVRMLS
• 2004-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $210,000 Public Records
• 2004-07-09 Sold (MLS) $210,000 CVRMLS
• 2004-07-09 Sold (MLS) $210,000 CVRMLS
• 2004-06-23 Listed $210,000 CVRMLS
• 2004-06-23 Listed $210,000 CVRMLS
• 2001-12-04 Sold (Public Records) $174,000 Public Records
• 1996-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $142,000 Public Records
• 1989-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $116,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,497 · +8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.