1503 Smedley Rd · Carlsbad, NM 88220

$180,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,530 sqft · SingleFamily · 163 Days on market

Built 1970 ↓ 5% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.3/30.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a project with tons of potential? Here it is! With over 1500 sq ft of living space, this home is a blank canvas ready for your ideas! This home sits on almost a full acre WITH a shed! This property has room to add on to the home or add additional outbuildings your heart desires! Call your favorite realtor for your showing ASAP!! Otis water membership, 2 car carport and a new roof done in 2020.

Key facts

• Shed
• Full acre
• Built 1970

Tags

• FULL ACRE
• SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $363 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (0.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#20 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: commute C-, health & safety C-, crime F.
• Zoned schools: Carlsbad Intermediate School - Pr Leyva Campus (817 students, 27% FRL); Carlsbad High (1,551 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: 363 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 156 units permitted in Eddy County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Eddy County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.63%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-6,164
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $24,002
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88220

• Active inventory: 363
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,791 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $404/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $363

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,332

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $464	-5% $414	+0% $363	+5% $312	+10% $261
Rent	-10% $221	-5% $292	+0% $363	+5% $433	+10% $504
Rate	-1.0pp $453	-0.5pp $408	base $363	+0.5pp $316	+1.0pp $269

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 163 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 162 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 161 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 160 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $180,000 Active 158 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 157 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $180,000 Active 155 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Active 154 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $180,000 Active 153 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $180,000 Active 152 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $180,000 Active 149 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $180,000 Active 148 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 147 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 146 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 145 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $180,000 Active 144 DOM
17. 2026-03-01
    price $180,000 411-char remark

    Show marketing remark (411 chars)

    Looking for a project with tons of potential? Here it is! With over 1500 sq ft of living space, this home is a blank canvas ready for your ideas! This home sits on almost a full acre WITH a shed! This property has room to add on to the home or add additional outbuildings your heart desires! Call your favorite realtor for your showing ASAP!! Otis water membership, 2 car carport and a new roof done in 2020.

18. 2026-01-06
    price $195,000 411-char remark

    Show marketing remark (411 chars)

    Looking for a project with tons of potential? Here it is! With over 1500 sq ft of living space, this home is a blank canvas ready for your ideas! This home sits on almost a full acre WITH a shed! This property has room to add on to the home or add additional outbuildings your heart desires! Call your favorite realtor for your showing ASAP!! Otis water membership, 2 car carport and a new roof done in 2020.

19. 2026-01-06
    listed $190,000 Active 411-char remark

    Show marketing remark (411 chars)

    Looking for a project with tons of potential? Here it is! With over 1500 sq ft of living space, this home is a blank canvas ready for your ideas! This home sits on almost a full acre WITH a shed! This property has room to add on to the home or add additional outbuildings your heart desires! Call your favorite realtor for your showing ASAP!! Otis water membership, 2 car carport and a new roof done in 2020.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $404 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,440 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,036/yr (+$86/mo · 256.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,497
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$404
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,720
• − Management: −$1,720
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $1,434
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$344
• After-tax cash flow: $4,007/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Carlsbad

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #20
• US rank: #7925

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Eddy County · 58,370 people
• City population: 39,828
• Metro: Carlsbad-Artesia, NM
• Population (ZIP): 39,828
• Household income: $78,162
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 661.0

Population outlook (Eddy County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 65,505 people
• By 2030: 69,797 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 79,191 · +20.9%
• By 2050: 89,199 · +36.2%
• By 2075: 115,829 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 129,336 · +97.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 46% Two or more races 22% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Eddy

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.9) · D 21.4% · R 77.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.2pp toward R · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -55.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.9 2020: R+51.8 2016: R+41.6 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -283.72%
• Current HPI: 114.115
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Carlsbad-Artesia, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-5.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-01 Price Changed $180,000 NMMLS
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $195,000 NMMLS
• 2026-01-06 Listed $190,000 NMMLS

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $404 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.