8 Murray · Tonawanda, NY 14150

$199,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,224 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1954 7,200 sqft lot $163/sqft · 28% below area Est $279k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Original owner’s family parting with this spotless maintenance free 1224 sq. ft. 3 bedroom Tonawanda cape. Features include tear off architectural roof, replacement windows throughout, hardwood floors (some under carpet), updated bath, new concrete driveway, 1.5 car garage, beautiful perennials gardens and more! This home has been meticulously cared for it will not disappoint.

Key facts

• Local amenities
• Detached garage
• 7,200 sq ft lot

Tags

• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• DETACHED GARAGE
• LOCAL AMENITIES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with garage door opener (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; High-speed internet available; Electric service available
• Home design: Single-story home; Vinyl siding; Resale property; Poured foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Poured foundation; Existing (previously built) structure
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Fully fenced yard; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 60 x 120

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Bedroom on main level; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $12 ($149/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (14.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (14.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#8 in NY, #169 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+.
• Tonawanda City School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #508 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $118k; list at $200k implies a 70% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $171,827 (14.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.27%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $278,638
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -28.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
81 Winkler Dr	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,212 (-1%)	6mo	$257,500	$212	58
115 Nicholas Dr N	0.52mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,264 (+3%)	13mo	$235,000	$186	54
17 Nicholas Dr N	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,281 (+5%)	10mo	$250,000	$195	52
20 Nicholas Dr N	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,108 (-10%)	5mo	$160,000	$144	49
26 Nicholas Ct	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,316 (+8%)	13mo	$310,500	$236	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-24,873
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $9,194
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14150

• Rents YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,718 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$213 /mo · $2,562/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,703

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
115 Klinger Ave Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	3d	1	0.43mi
53 Winkler Dr Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1060	$2,100	$1.98	11d	1	0.74mi
1835 Military Rd Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1064	$2,175	$2.04	16d	1	1.20mi
285 Crestmount Ave Tonawanda, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,905	$2.63	1d	9	1.40mi
36-46 Crowell Ct Unit 40 Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,395	$1.40	23d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 696-char remark
2. 2026-04-28
   listed $199,900 Active 696-char remark
3. 2017-10-05
   soldstatus $117,900 Closed Sale or Rented 385-char remark

   Show marketing remark (385 chars)

   Original owner’s family parting with this spotless maintenance free 1224 sq. ft. 3 bedroom Tonawanda cape. Features include tear off architectural roof, replacement windows throughout, hardwood floors (some under carpet), updated bath, new concrete driveway, 1.5 car garage, beautiful perennials gardens and more! This home has been meticulously cared for it will not disappoint.

4. 2017-10-03
   soldstatus $117,900
5. 2017-10-03
   soldstatus $117,900
6. 2017-10-03
   soldstatus $117,900
7. 2017-08-25
   status Pending Sale 385-char remark

   Show marketing remark (385 chars)

   Original owner’s family parting with this spotless maintenance free 1224 sq. ft. 3 bedroom Tonawanda cape. Features include tear off architectural roof, replacement windows throughout, hardwood floors (some under carpet), updated bath, new concrete driveway, 1.5 car garage, beautiful perennials gardens and more! This home has been meticulously cared for it will not disappoint.

8. 2017-07-28
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 385-char remark

   Show marketing remark (385 chars)

   Original owner’s family parting with this spotless maintenance free 1224 sq. ft. 3 bedroom Tonawanda cape. Features include tear off architectural roof, replacement windows throughout, hardwood floors (some under carpet), updated bath, new concrete driveway, 1.5 car garage, beautiful perennials gardens and more! This home has been meticulously cared for it will not disappoint.

9. 2017-07-10
   listed $114,900 Active 385-char remark

   Show marketing remark (385 chars)

   Original owner’s family parting with this spotless maintenance free 1224 sq. ft. 3 bedroom Tonawanda cape. Features include tear off architectural roof, replacement windows throughout, hardwood floors (some under carpet), updated bath, new concrete driveway, 1.5 car garage, beautiful perennials gardens and more! This home has been meticulously cared for it will not disappoint.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,562 · $213/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,970 · $247/mo
• Expected delta: +$408/yr (+$34/mo · 15.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,619
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,562
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,650
• − Management: −$1,650
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$3,254
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$781
• After-tax cash flow: $929/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tonawanda City School District
• NCES district ID: 3628740
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,061
• Composite: 35.03/100
• National rank: #5041
• State rank: #508 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tonawanda

• Score: 89/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #169

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tonawanda, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 41,260
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 41,260
• Household income: $71,406
• Rent vs Own: 27.9% rent · 72.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1427.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.43%
• Current HPI: 334.5893
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.75%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+74.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $199,900 WNYREIS
• 2017-10-05 Sold (MLS) $117,900 WNYREIS
• 2017-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $117,900 Public Records
• 2017-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $117,900 Public Records
• 2017-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $117,900 Public Records
• 2017-08-25 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2017-07-28 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2017-07-10 Listed $114,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+11.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,562 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.