9500 Deer Path Dr · Watson, LA 70706

$169,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 5 Days on market

Built 1996 0.59 ac lot Est $170k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Completely renovated and move-in ready 3-bedroom home in Deer Creek Acres in Denham Springs, situated on just over a half-acre lot! This beautifully updated home features an open floor plan with all-new laminate wood flooring, abundant natural light, and a stunning stone wood-burning fireplace that serves as a focal point in the living area. The updated kitchen is a true standout, offering granite countertops, all new cabinets, a stylish tile backsplash, stainless steel appliances, a modern exhaust hood, and a breakfast bar, perfect for casual dining and entertaining. Just off the kitchen, the formal dining room provides an ideal space for hosting gatherings with family and friends. All bedrooms are generously sized with ample closet storage. The spacious primary suite features a luxurious en-suite bath with double vanities, a large soaking tub, custom shelving, and a beautifully designed marble shower. Enjoy the peace and privacy of a large lot while still being conveniently located near local amenities. This property did not flood and is located in flood zone X. Roof was replaced in January 2026! Don't miss your opportunity to own this impressive, fully renovated home. Schedule your private showing today!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Renovated home
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• RENOVATED HOME
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• STONE WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• TILE BACKSPLASH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with gravel; 4 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story; Updated/remodeled
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Porch; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Oven; Electric cooktop; Dishwasher; Range hood; Stainless steel appliances
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup inside; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $260 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (5.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (5.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.8% in Watson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#50 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Livingston Parish (suburban): math 40% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 98 in LA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 342 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 794 units permitted in Livingston Parish in 2024 (99 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Livingston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,000 (5.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.55%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $169,920
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9500 Deer Path Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$169,900	$118	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-11,064
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $11,347
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70706

• Active inventory: 342
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $509/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $260

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,271

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10124 Nashville Ct Denham Springs, LA	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,600	$1.37	43d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending 1226-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1226 chars)

   Completely renovated and move-in ready 3-bedroom home in Deer Creek Acres in Denham Springs, situated on just over a half-acre lot! This beautifully updated home features an open floor plan with all-new laminate wood flooring, abundant natural light, and a stunning stone wood-burning fireplace that serves as a focal point in the living area. The updated kitchen is a true standout, offering granite countertops, all new cabinets, a stylish tile backsplash, stainless steel appliances, a modern exhaust hood, and a breakfast bar, perfect for casual dining and entertaining. Just off the kitchen, the formal dining room provides an ideal space for hosting gatherings with family and friends. All bedrooms are generously sized with ample closet storage. The spacious primary suite features a luxurious en-suite bath with double vanities, a large soaking tub, custom shelving, and a beautifully designed marble shower. Enjoy the peace and privacy of a large lot while still being conveniently located near local amenities. This property did not flood and is located in flood zone X. Roof was replaced in January 2026! Don't miss your opportunity to own this impressive, fully renovated home. Schedule your private showing today!

2. 2026-04-29
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (1226 chars)

   Completely renovated and move-in ready 3-bedroom home in Deer Creek Acres in Denham Springs, situated on just over a half-acre lot! This beautifully updated home features an open floor plan with all-new laminate wood flooring, abundant natural light, and a stunning stone wood-burning fireplace that serves as a focal point in the living area. The updated kitchen is a true standout, offering granite countertops, all new cabinets, a stylish tile backsplash, stainless steel appliances, a modern exhaust hood, and a breakfast bar, perfect for casual dining and entertaining. Just off the kitchen, the formal dining room provides an ideal space for hosting gatherings with family and friends. All bedrooms are generously sized with ample closet storage. The spacious primary suite features a luxurious en-suite bath with double vanities, a large soaking tub, custom shelving, and a beautifully designed marble shower. Enjoy the peace and privacy of a large lot while still being conveniently located near local amenities. This property did not flood and is located in flood zone X. Roof was replaced in January 2026! Don't miss your opportunity to own this impressive, fully renovated home. Schedule your private showing today!

3. 2026-04-24
   listed $169,900 Active 1226-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1226 chars)

   Completely renovated and move-in ready 3-bedroom home in Deer Creek Acres in Denham Springs, situated on just over a half-acre lot! This beautifully updated home features an open floor plan with all-new laminate wood flooring, abundant natural light, and a stunning stone wood-burning fireplace that serves as a focal point in the living area. The updated kitchen is a true standout, offering granite countertops, all new cabinets, a stylish tile backsplash, stainless steel appliances, a modern exhaust hood, and a breakfast bar, perfect for casual dining and entertaining. Just off the kitchen, the formal dining room provides an ideal space for hosting gatherings with family and friends. All bedrooms are generously sized with ample closet storage. The spacious primary suite features a luxurious en-suite bath with double vanities, a large soaking tub, custom shelving, and a beautifully designed marble shower. Enjoy the peace and privacy of a large lot while still being conveniently located near local amenities. This property did not flood and is located in flood zone X. Roof was replaced in January 2026! Don't miss your opportunity to own this impressive, fully renovated home. Schedule your private showing today!

4. 2026-04-24
   listed $169,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (1226 chars)

   Completely renovated and move-in ready 3-bedroom home in Deer Creek Acres in Denham Springs, situated on just over a half-acre lot! This beautifully updated home features an open floor plan with all-new laminate wood flooring, abundant natural light, and a stunning stone wood-burning fireplace that serves as a focal point in the living area. The updated kitchen is a true standout, offering granite countertops, all new cabinets, a stylish tile backsplash, stainless steel appliances, a modern exhaust hood, and a breakfast bar, perfect for casual dining and entertaining. Just off the kitchen, the formal dining room provides an ideal space for hosting gatherings with family and friends. All bedrooms are generously sized with ample closet storage. The spacious primary suite features a luxurious en-suite bath with double vanities, a large soaking tub, custom shelving, and a beautifully designed marble shower. Enjoy the peace and privacy of a large lot while still being conveniently located near local amenities. This property did not flood and is located in flood zone X. Roof was replaced in January 2026! Don't miss your opportunity to own this impressive, fully renovated home. Schedule your private showing today!

5. 2025-10-22
   soldstatus Closed
6. 2025-10-07
   historical
7. 2025-10-06
   listed $40,000
8. 2025-10-06
   listed $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $509 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $934 · $78/mo
• Expected delta: +$425/yr (+$35/mo · 83.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$509
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable income: $310
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$74
• After-tax cash flow: $3,043/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201020
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -32.00%
• Median HH income: $56,755
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3811
• State rank: #13 of 98 in LA

Livability — Watson

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #7247

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 22,621

Population outlook (Livingston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 158,511 people
• By 2030: 168,241 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 186,252 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 201,516 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 231,217 · +45.9%
• By 2100: 241,697 · +52.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, China

Political lean MEDSL · Livingston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.5) · D 15.1% · R 83.6% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.4pp toward D · 2008: -71.9pp · 2024: -68.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.5 2020: R+70.0 2016: R+72.5 2012: R+70.4 2008: R+71.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.82%
• Current HPI: 160.2185
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+324.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-29 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $169,900 GBRMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $169,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-10-22 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2025-10-07 Delisted — GBRMLS
• 2025-10-06 Listed $40,000 GBRMLS
• 2025-10-06 Listed $40,000 AcadianaMLS

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $509 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.