8331 Lanewood Dr · Houston, TX 77016

$215,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,622 sqft · Townhouse · 21 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 2026
• Listed 21 days

🏗️ New construction. The $215,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $215,726.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $215k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-40 ($-475/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (2.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cook Jr El (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 519 students, 96% FRL); Key Middle (math 10% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,569 of 1,662 statewide, top 95%, 615 students, 100% FRL); Kashmere H S (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 725 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 377 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 61% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,837/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($48k/yr) (locally 1297% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (8.7% appreciation + 0.4% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,700 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.79%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $215,726
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8331 Lanewood Dr	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,622 (0%)	1mo	$215,000	$133	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.65% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $90,792
• Equity at exit: $173,503

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.26×
• Total profit: $257,471
• Equity at exit: $353,995

Cash invested: $60,403 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77016

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 377
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,837 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,131
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$270 /mo · $3,236/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $-40

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,887

Max offer price $209,995

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $109	-5% $35	+0% $-40	+5% $-114	+10% $-189
Rent	-10% $-185	-5% $-112	+0% $-40	+5% $33	+10% $106
Rate	-1.0pp $69	-0.5pp $15	base $-40	+0.5pp $-96	+1.0pp $-152

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,932
• Closing costs: $6,472
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7119 Bywood St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,795	$1.56	46d	1	0.39mi
8639 Peachtree St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,750	$1.52	46d	1	0.49mi
8508 Wileyvale Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1504	$1,650	$1.10	46d	1	0.50mi
5609 Denmark St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,595	$1.13	46d	1	0.64mi
7740 Wileyvale Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$3,000	$2.00	46d	1	0.66mi
7418 Bywood St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	26d	1	0.75mi
9422 Sandra St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1461	$1,875	$1.28	46d	1	0.81mi
9314 Sundown Dr Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,675	$1.04	1d	1	0.84mi
9320 Firnat St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1900	$1,850	$0.97	10d	1	0.93mi
9324 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,900	$1.19	24d	1	0.93mi
9328 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1902	$1,900	$1.00	46d	1	0.93mi
9326 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1902	$1,900	$1.00	46d	1	0.93mi
9410 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	46d	1	0.98mi
9410 Firnat St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	1d	1	0.98mi
7601 Springdale St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,200	$0.98	17d	1	1.02mi
4326 Plaag St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,595	$1.39	46d	1	1.15mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Unit 235 Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$850	$0.77	46d	1	1.15mi
7804 Crestview Dr Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,550	$1.35	24d	1	1.28mi
7805 Woodlyn Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1946	$1,800	$0.92	1d	1	1.32mi
6315 Sandra St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,399	$1.22	46d	1	1.37mi
4626 Shreveport Blvd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,490	$1.30	16d	1	1.45mi
7914 Laura Koppe Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,850	$1.32	46d	1	1.49mi
7176 Parker Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1152	$1,200	$1.04	46d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-16
   status Active
4. 2026-02-24
   historical
5. 2026-02-21
   listed $215,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,044
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,084
• − Property taxes: −$3,236
• − Insurance: −$1,079
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,764
• − Management: −$1,764
• − Depreciation: −$6,276
• Taxable loss: −$4,157
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$998
• After-tax cash flow: $522/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This modern townhouse is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a well-maintained interior, a clean exterior, and a tidy yard. Potential value-adding updates include painting, landscaping, smart home features, and kitchen appliance upgrades.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Upgrading to high-end appliances can increase both resale and rental value by making the kitchen more desirable.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Upgrading to high-end appliances can increase both resale and rental value by making the kitchen more desirable. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,841
• Household income: $47,677
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 28%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 37%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.65%
• Current HPI: 315.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-21 Listed $215,000 HARMLS