1106 W Chestnut St · Centralia, WA 98531

$169,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,674 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1900 9,148 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Rescue this one from the house pound and give it some love.   Toolbelts will be needed.   Cash offers only.

Key facts

• 9,148 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1900

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Buyer brokerage compensation: 2.5%
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Covered parking for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Electric energy source; Public water (served by City of Centralia); Sewer connected (City of Centralia); Power provided by City of Centralia
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two-story house; Built on lot; Main entry level
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Wood exterior; Wood products; Paved lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms (all on the upper level)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom with a bathtub (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Heating available (see remarks for details); No cooling
• Interior features: Level topography; Main entry on main level; Has view

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $349 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 3.0% in Centralia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#81 in WA, #1,497 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, employment F.
• Centralia School District (town): math 39% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #187 of 291 in WA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 258 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 90% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 265 units permitted in Lewis County in 2024 (44 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lewis County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.47%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $406,782
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1001 Elm St	0.13mi	3/1.5	1,820 (+9%)	9mo	$463,000	$254	70
319 Willow Ln	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,628 (-3%)	8mo	$445,000	$273	67
724 S Pearl St	0.58mi	3/1.5	1,660 (-1%)	8mo	$430,000	$259	63
1612 Cooks Hill Rd	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,722 (+3%)	6mo	$450,000	$261	61
303 Courtland St	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,505 (-10%)	14mo	$385,000	$256	56
506 Jackson St	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,626 (-3%)	14mo	$230,000	$141	54
422 Madison St	0.38mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,424 (-15%)	1mo	$275,000	$193	52
118 S Washington Ave	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,516 (-9%)	14mo	$368,500	$243	46
103 Benjamin St	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,864 (+11%)	13mo	$420,000	$225	45
1703 W Mellen	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,480 (-12%)	2mo	$301,500	$204	43
1007 Centralia College Blvd	0.40mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,440 (-14%)	14mo	$341,000	$237	42
402 W Pine St	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,900 (+14%)	17mo	$375,000	$197	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-5,275
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $24,203
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98531

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 258
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,969 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$179 /mo · $2,146/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $349

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,528

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $445	-5% $397	+0% $349	+5% $301	+10% $252
Rent	-10% $193	-5% $271	+0% $349	+5% $426	+10% $504
Rate	-1.0pp $434	-0.5pp $392	base $349	+0.5pp $305	+1.0pp $260

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
609 S Washington Ave Unit B Centralia, WA	3.0	2.0	1264	$2,300	$1.82	44d	1	0.28mi
1405 Lewis St Centralia, WA	2.0	1.5	1150	$1,650	$1.43	14d	1	0.37mi
507 S Rock St Centralia, WA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,050	$1.86	44d	1	0.42mi
701 H St Apt R Centralia, WA	2.0	1.5	1180	$1,500	$1.27	44d	1	0.84mi
701 H St Apt E Centralia, WA	2.0	1.0	1137	$1,500	$1.32	44d	1	0.84mi
1111 Grand Ave Unit B Centralia, WA	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,495	$1.42	44d	1	0.92mi
683 Bryden Ave Unit A Centralia, WA	4.0	2.5	1944	$2,900	$1.49	44d	1	1.15mi
2711 Niki LN Centralia, WA	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,100	$1.68	44d	1	1.19mi
2711 Niki Ln Bldg D8 Centralia, WA	3.0	2.5	1312	$2,100	$1.60	44d	1	1.23mi
914 B St Unit B Centralia, WA	3.0	3.0	1600	$2,375	$1.48	44d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $169,900 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,900 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   price $169,900 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,900 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $179,900 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $179,900 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,900 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    remarks 107-char remark
13. 2026-06-07
    listed $179,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,146 · $179/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,146 · $179/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,631
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$2,146
• − Insurance: −$1,647
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,890
• − Management: −$1,890
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable income: $1,597
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$383
• After-tax cash flow: $3,800/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Centralia School District
• NCES district ID: 5301140
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $38,851
• Composite: 40.17/100
• National rank: #7832
• State rank: #187 of 291 in WA

Livability — Centralia

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #81
• US rank: #1497

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Centralia, WA
• County: Lewis County · 27,337 people
• City population: 27,337
• Metro: Centralia, WA
• Population (ZIP): 27,337
• Household income: $63,406
• Rent vs Own: 34.3% rent · 65.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1000.0

Population outlook (Lewis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,749 people
• By 2030: 74,647 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 71,310 · -5.9%
• By 2050: 67,748 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 59,829 · -21.0%
• By 2100: 52,293 · -31.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lewis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.0) · D 32.0% · R 65.0% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.8pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -33.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.0 2020: R+32.8 2016: R+36.2 2012: R+23.5 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -249.98%
• Current HPI: 378.6936
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.00%
• Metro: Centralia, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $179,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+21.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,146 · -2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.