441 Shirley Ave · Buffalo, NY 14215

$134,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1915 3,564 sqft lot Est $137k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this updated single-family home situated in a highly sought-after area of Buffalo. This property features three bedrooms, one bathroom, a separate kitchen, a dining room, a full basement, a multi-vehicle driveway, and a garage. The dry basement offers potential for additional living or recreational space. Recent upgrades include a new roof (2022), brand-new windows, new flooring, and fresh coat of paint. Showings commence immediately, and offers will be reviewed on Tuesday, June 25, 2024, at 3:00 PM.

Key facts

• Separate kitchen
• Brand-new windows
• Full basement

Tags

• UPDATED SINGLE-FAMILY HOME
• SEPARATE KITCHEN
• FULL BASEMENT
• MULTI-VEHICLE DRIVEWAY
• NEW ROOF
• BRAND-NEW WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $213 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $133k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 239 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $132,876 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.77%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $137,280
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
601 Lasalle Ave	0.09mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,188 (+4%)	1mo	$165,000	$139	83
492 Hewitt Ave	0.13mi	3/1.0	1,065 (-7%)	2mo	$241,000	$226	81
340 Shirley Ave	0.19mi	3/1.0	1,056 (-8%)	3mo	$140,000	$133	76
496 Berkshire Ave	0.20mi	3/1.0	1,266 (+11%)	1mo	$125,000	$99	72
622 Lasalle Ave	0.09mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,258 (+10%)	3mo	$115,000	$91	72
99 Fennimore Ave	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,100 (-4%)	3mo	$115,000	$105	71
358 Hastings Ave	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,152 (+1%)	2mo	$128,500	$112	67
223 Phyllis Ave	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,082 (-5%)	0mo	$68,500	$63	63
322 Phyllis Ave	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,098 (-4%)	0mo	$175,000	$159	58
153 Stockbridge Ave	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,248 (+9%)	3mo	$150,000	$120	52
59 Martha Ave	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,282 (+12%)	1mo	$149,000	$116	47
19 Allendale Rd	0.58mi	4/1.0 (+1)	990 (-14%)	1mo	$165,000	$167	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-11,593
• Equity at exit: $20,114

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-5,545
• Equity at exit: $11,664

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14215

• Home prices YoY: -30.0%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 239
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,450 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,024/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $213

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,180

Max offer price $134,900

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $306	-5% $260	+0% $213	+5% $166	+10% $120
Rent	-10% $98	-5% $156	+0% $213	+5% $270	+10% $328
Rate	-1.0pp $281	-0.5pp $247	base $213	+0.5pp $178	+1.0pp $142

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
507 Lisbon Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	850	$1,050	$1.24	45d	1	0.19mi
189 Westminster Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.5	1065	$1,595	$1.50	11d	1	0.19mi
220 Dartmouth Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	24d	1	0.41mi
97 Davidson Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	925	$1,495	$1.62	2d	1	0.48mi
265 Lisbon Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,400	$1.17	45d	1	0.59mi
263 Minnesota Ave Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1242	$1,500	$1.21	15d	1	0.62mi
222 Lisbon Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	24d	1	0.68mi
222 Lisbon Ave Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,400	$1.00	45d	1	0.68mi
140 Parkridge Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	990	$1,500	$1.52	45d	1	0.79mi
92 Lasalle Ave Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,150	$1.15	45d	1	0.97mi
89 Lasalle Ave Buffalo, NY	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1024	$2,291	$2.24	2d	10	1.01mi
40 Lisbon Ave Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1057	$1,500	$1.42	12d	1	1.02mi
26 Custer St Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	45d	1	1.11mi
44 Aurora Dr Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1272	$3,300	$2.59	2d	1	1.13mi
2939 Main St Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	562	$1,999	$3.55	4d	1	1.13mi
60 Englewood Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1400	$1,650	$1.18	2d	1	1.14mi
190 Manhattan Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	724	$1,200	$1.66	45d	1	1.14mi
17 Proctor Ave Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	45d	1	1.23mi
74 Dorris Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	45d	1	1.27mi
160 Courtland Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	810	$1,025	$1.27	15d	1	1.35mi
2 Angle St Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	725	$1,212	$1.67	15d	2	1.39mi
103 Preston Rd Unit Lower Cheektowaga, NY	2.0	1.0	882	$1,300	$1.47	4d	1	1.41mi
4035-4055 Harlem Rd Unit 4081B Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	815	$1,649	$2.02	2d	1	1.41mi
90 Sussex St Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	45d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-10
   listed $134,900 Active
3. 2024-10-18
   soldstatus $125,000
4. 2024-10-16
   soldstatus $125,000 Closed 516-char remark

   Show marketing remark (516 chars)

   Welcome to this updated single-family home situated in a highly sought-after area of Buffalo. This property features three bedrooms, one bathroom, a separate kitchen, a dining room, a full basement, a multi-vehicle driveway, and a garage. The dry basement offers potential for additional living or recreational space. Recent upgrades include a new roof (2022), brand-new windows, new flooring, and fresh coat of paint. Showings commence immediately, and offers will be reviewed on Tuesday, June 25, 2024, at 3:00 PM.

5. 2024-06-26
   status Pending 516-char remark

   Show marketing remark (516 chars)

   Welcome to this updated single-family home situated in a highly sought-after area of Buffalo. This property features three bedrooms, one bathroom, a separate kitchen, a dining room, a full basement, a multi-vehicle driveway, and a garage. The dry basement offers potential for additional living or recreational space. Recent upgrades include a new roof (2022), brand-new windows, new flooring, and fresh coat of paint. Showings commence immediately, and offers will be reviewed on Tuesday, June 25, 2024, at 3:00 PM.

6. 2024-06-13
   listed $99,900 Active 516-char remark

   Show marketing remark (516 chars)

   Welcome to this updated single-family home situated in a highly sought-after area of Buffalo. This property features three bedrooms, one bathroom, a separate kitchen, a dining room, a full basement, a multi-vehicle driveway, and a garage. The dry basement offers potential for additional living or recreational space. Recent upgrades include a new roof (2022), brand-new windows, new flooring, and fresh coat of paint. Showings commence immediately, and offers will be reviewed on Tuesday, June 25, 2024, at 3:00 PM.

7. 2021-07-19
   soldstatus $55,000
8. 2020-10-22
   soldstatus $55,000 Closed Sale or Rented 236-char remark

   Show marketing remark (236 chars)

   Tenant occupied. SHOWINGS SUNDAY 2-4PM. Deadline to make highest and best offer is June 29th 5PM. Package/bundle option available for 47 Ericson Avenue, 109 Ericson Avenue and 1377 E. Delavan Avenue. Estate pending pointing of Executor.

9. 2020-10-19
   soldstatus $55,000
10. 2020-07-06
    status Pending Sale 236-char remark

    Show marketing remark (236 chars)

    Tenant occupied. SHOWINGS SUNDAY 2-4PM. Deadline to make highest and best offer is June 29th 5PM. Package/bundle option available for 47 Ericson Avenue, 109 Ericson Avenue and 1377 E. Delavan Avenue. Estate pending pointing of Executor.

11. 2020-06-30
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show 236-char remark

    Show marketing remark (236 chars)

    Tenant occupied. SHOWINGS SUNDAY 2-4PM. Deadline to make highest and best offer is June 29th 5PM. Package/bundle option available for 47 Ericson Avenue, 109 Ericson Avenue and 1377 E. Delavan Avenue. Estate pending pointing of Executor.

12. 2020-06-26
    listed $50,000 Active 236-char remark

    Show marketing remark (236 chars)

    Tenant occupied. SHOWINGS SUNDAY 2-4PM. Deadline to make highest and best offer is June 29th 5PM. Package/bundle option available for 47 Ericson Avenue, 109 Ericson Avenue and 1377 E. Delavan Avenue. Estate pending pointing of Executor.

13. 1994-06-07
    soldstatus $39,900
14. 1993-10-29
    soldstatus $24,255

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,396
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$2,024
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,392
• − Management: −$1,392
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable income: $434
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$104
• After-tax cash flow: $2,452/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 42,524
• Household income: $44,955
• Rent vs Own: 50.0% rent · 50.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2873.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 67% White 15% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.29%
• Current HPI: 295.2966
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.67%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+456.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $134,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2024-10-16 Sold (MLS) $125,000 WNYREIS
• 2024-06-26 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2024-06-13 Listed $99,900 WNYREIS
• 2021-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2020-10-22 Sold (MLS) $55,000 WNYREIS
• 2020-10-19 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2020-07-06 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2020-06-30 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2020-06-26 Listed $50,000 WNYREIS
• 1994-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $39,900 Public Records
• 1993-10-29 Sold (Public Records) $24,255 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $269 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.