3 Jones Rd · Hampton Bays, NY 11946

$1,145,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,626 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1991 0.44 ac lot $704/sqft · 7% above area Est $1072k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• ARV discount +4.4/15.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this enchanting four-bedroom House located in Hampton Bays, one of the most prestigious and well-known areas on Long Island. Situated on a private lot with beautiful picture-perfect views, this property offers a stunning ranch style home with all the modern amenities for today's family. Highlights include a lovely eat-in kitchen with stunning stainless-steel appliances, dining room, bright and airy living room, four comfortable bedrooms and two full baths. Additional features include fenced-in backyard with a large pool, gorgeous patio and lush landscaping. Features that set this property apart from others are the community beach club which includes a clubhouse complete with tennis court, in-ground pool as well as an incredible "beach" where you can swim or sunbathe - all for a low annual fee! The only thing better than living at this amazing property would be using it for your next vacation rental close to everything Hampton Bays has to offer!, Additional information: Appearance:very good,Separate Hotwater Heater:N

Key facts

• In-ground pool
• Bright open layout
• Spacious patio

Tags

• PRIVATE LANDSCAPED LOT
• BRIGHT OPEN LAYOUT
• FENCED BACKYARD
• IN-GROUND POOL
• SPACIOUS PATIO
• MATURE LANDSCAPING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (no carport)
• Utilities: No sewer listed; No utilities listed
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: In-ground private pool; Frame construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Includes bedrooms on the first floor
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; No central air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; Eat-in kitchen; Primary bedroom on main level; Washer/dryer hookup; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer/Dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.15M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.06M (7.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.06M (7.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 6.4% in Hampton Bays — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#551 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hampton Bays Union Free School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #434 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hampton Bays Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 682 students, 55% FRL); Hampton Bays Middle School (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 597 students, 64% FRL); Hampton Bays High School (math 98% / reading 57%, grade A-, #580 of 1,100 statewide, top 53%, 769 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 38% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.1%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $10,637/mo this rent would consume 95% of the median local household income ($134k/yr) (locally 199% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $34k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $321k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.11M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $950k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $1,063,708 (7.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.28%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,071,873
• List price: $1,145,000
• Delta: 6.82%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
89 Bellows Ter	0.05mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,620 (-0%)	12mo	$1,260,000	$778	80
4 Pine Tree Ct	0.16mi	3/3.5 (-1)	1,700 (+5%)	0mo	$1,485,000	$874	74
50 Sherwood Rd	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,804 (+11%)	7mo	$1,099,000	$609	64
8 Foxboro Rd	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,495 (-8%)	4mo	$951,000	$636	56
27 Norwood Rd	0.33mi	4/2.0	1,468 (-10%)	17mo	$919,999	$627	55
19 Pine Tree Ln	0.26mi	5/4.0 (+1)	1,734 (+7%)	13mo	$1,260,000	$727	53
16 Squires Ave	0.56mi	4/2.5	1,840 (+13%)	5mo	$1,060,000	$576	46
14 Fairview Rd	0.67mi	4/3.0	1,763 (+8%)	6mo	$885,000	$502	45
3 Evergreen Ct	0.68mi	3/4.0 (-1)	1,594 (-2%)	13mo	$945,000	$593	41
58 Romana Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,671 (+3%)	19mo	$1,075,000	$643	41
4 Beechnut Ct	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (+11%)	10mo	$1,160,000	$644	40
7 Evergreen Ct	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,486 (-9%)	12mo	$989,000	$666	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-39,821
• Equity at exit: $170,723

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $335,304
• Equity at exit: $98,999

Cash invested: $320,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11946

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $10,637 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,005
• Tax from tax record: −$510 /mo · $6,121/yr
• Insurance: −$477
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,234
• Net cashflow: $1,412

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,850

Max offer price $1,145,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,060	-5% $1,736	+0% $1,412	+5% $1,088	+10% $763
Rent	-10% $571	-5% $991	+0% $1,412	+5% $1,832	+10% $2,252
Rate	-1.0pp $1,988	-0.5pp $1,703	base $1,412	+0.5pp $1,115	+1.0pp $813

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $286,250
• Closing costs: $34,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15 Birchwood Ln East Quogue, NY	3.0	3.0	1635	$5,000	$3.06	45d	1	0.30mi
45 Bellows Ter Unit B Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.0	1722	$7,000	$4.07	45d	1	0.46mi
4 Bennett Dr East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.0	2144	$11,000	$5.13	6d	1	0.75mi
6 Rolling Hill Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	1697	$18,000	$10.61	0d	1	0.83mi
10 Skyes Neck Ct East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.0	2249	$80,000	$35.57	25d	1	0.87mi
13 Beachland Ave East Quogue, NY	4.0	4.0	2028	$38,000	$18.74	23d	1	1.04mi
5 Hyler Dr Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	2000	$14,000	$7.00	20d	1	1.04mi
61 Atlantic Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	2130	$25,000	$11.74	7d	1	1.18mi
58 Ocean Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1600	$10,000	$6.25	45d	1	1.23mi
51 Ocean Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1200	$5,000	$4.17	45d	1	1.31mi
20 Marlin Rd East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.0	2000	$10,000	$5.00	45d	1	1.39mi
35 Grant Blvd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.0	1484	$35,000	$23.58	25d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $1,145,000 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,145,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,145,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,145,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,145,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,145,000 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,145,000 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   price $1,145,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,195,000 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 25 DOM
17. 2026-05-06
    listed $1,195,000 Active 1196-char remark
18. 2024-11-13
    historical $5,000
19. 2024-10-24
    price $5,000
20. 2024-09-25
    listed $6,000
21. 2024-08-28
    soldstatus $950,000
22. 2024-07-18
    soldstatus $950,000 Closed 1052-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1052 chars)

    Welcome to this enchanting four-bedroom House located in Hampton Bays, one of the most prestigious and well-known areas on Long Island. Situated on a private lot with beautiful picture-perfect views, this property offers a stunning ranch style home with all the modern amenities for today's family. Highlights include a lovely eat-in kitchen with stunning stainless-steel appliances, dining room, bright and airy living room, four comfortable bedrooms and two full baths. Additional features include fenced-in backyard with a large pool, gorgeous patio and lush landscaping. Features that set this property apart from others are the community beach club which includes a clubhouse complete with tennis court, in-ground pool as well as an incredible "beach" where you can swim or sunbathe - all for a low annual fee! The only thing better than living at this amazing property would be using it for your next vacation rental close to everything Hampton Bays has to offer!, Additional information: Appearance:very good,Separate Hotwater Heater:N

23. 2024-05-09
    status Pending 1052-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1052 chars)

    Welcome to this enchanting four-bedroom House located in Hampton Bays, one of the most prestigious and well-known areas on Long Island. Situated on a private lot with beautiful picture-perfect views, this property offers a stunning ranch style home with all the modern amenities for today's family. Highlights include a lovely eat-in kitchen with stunning stainless-steel appliances, dining room, bright and airy living room, four comfortable bedrooms and two full baths. Additional features include fenced-in backyard with a large pool, gorgeous patio and lush landscaping. Features that set this property apart from others are the community beach club which includes a clubhouse complete with tennis court, in-ground pool as well as an incredible "beach" where you can swim or sunbathe - all for a low annual fee! The only thing better than living at this amazing property would be using it for your next vacation rental close to everything Hampton Bays has to offer!, Additional information: Appearance:very good,Separate Hotwater Heater:N

24. 2024-04-11
    status Active 1052-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1052 chars)

    Welcome to this enchanting four-bedroom House located in Hampton Bays, one of the most prestigious and well-known areas on Long Island. Situated on a private lot with beautiful picture-perfect views, this property offers a stunning ranch style home with all the modern amenities for today's family. Highlights include a lovely eat-in kitchen with stunning stainless-steel appliances, dining room, bright and airy living room, four comfortable bedrooms and two full baths. Additional features include fenced-in backyard with a large pool, gorgeous patio and lush landscaping. Features that set this property apart from others are the community beach club which includes a clubhouse complete with tennis court, in-ground pool as well as an incredible "beach" where you can swim or sunbathe - all for a low annual fee! The only thing better than living at this amazing property would be using it for your next vacation rental close to everything Hampton Bays has to offer!, Additional information: Appearance:very good,Separate Hotwater Heater:N

25. 2024-01-17
    status Pending 1052-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1052 chars)

    Welcome to this enchanting four-bedroom House located in Hampton Bays, one of the most prestigious and well-known areas on Long Island. Situated on a private lot with beautiful picture-perfect views, this property offers a stunning ranch style home with all the modern amenities for today's family. Highlights include a lovely eat-in kitchen with stunning stainless-steel appliances, dining room, bright and airy living room, four comfortable bedrooms and two full baths. Additional features include fenced-in backyard with a large pool, gorgeous patio and lush landscaping. Features that set this property apart from others are the community beach club which includes a clubhouse complete with tennis court, in-ground pool as well as an incredible "beach" where you can swim or sunbathe - all for a low annual fee! The only thing better than living at this amazing property would be using it for your next vacation rental close to everything Hampton Bays has to offer!, Additional information: Appearance:very good,Separate Hotwater Heater:N

26. 2023-12-05
    historical
27. 2023-09-29
    listed $975,000 Active 1052-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1052 chars)

    Welcome to this enchanting four-bedroom House located in Hampton Bays, one of the most prestigious and well-known areas on Long Island. Situated on a private lot with beautiful picture-perfect views, this property offers a stunning ranch style home with all the modern amenities for today's family. Highlights include a lovely eat-in kitchen with stunning stainless-steel appliances, dining room, bright and airy living room, four comfortable bedrooms and two full baths. Additional features include fenced-in backyard with a large pool, gorgeous patio and lush landscaping. Features that set this property apart from others are the community beach club which includes a clubhouse complete with tennis court, in-ground pool as well as an incredible "beach" where you can swim or sunbathe - all for a low annual fee! The only thing better than living at this amazing property would be using it for your next vacation rental close to everything Hampton Bays has to offer!, Additional information: Appearance:very good,Separate Hotwater Heater:N

28. 2023-09-29
    historical $975,000 1052-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1052 chars)

    Welcome to this enchanting four-bedroom House located in Hampton Bays, one of the most prestigious and well-known areas on Long Island. Situated on a private lot with beautiful picture-perfect views, this property offers a stunning ranch style home with all the modern amenities for today's family. Highlights include a lovely eat-in kitchen with stunning stainless-steel appliances, dining room, bright and airy living room, four comfortable bedrooms and two full baths. Additional features include fenced-in backyard with a large pool, gorgeous patio and lush landscaping. Features that set this property apart from others are the community beach club which includes a clubhouse complete with tennis court, in-ground pool as well as an incredible "beach" where you can swim or sunbathe - all for a low annual fee! The only thing better than living at this amazing property would be using it for your next vacation rental close to everything Hampton Bays has to offer!, Additional information: Appearance:very good,Separate Hotwater Heater:N

29. 2023-08-03
    listed
30. 1999-07-01
    soldstatus $154,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,121 · $510/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,736 · $1,061/mo
• Expected delta: +$6,615/yr (+$551/mo · 108.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $127,645
• − Mortgage interest: −$64,138
• − Property taxes: −$6,121
• − Insurance: −$5,725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$10,212
• − Management: −$10,212
• − Depreciation: −$33,309
• Taxable loss: −$2,071
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$497
• After-tax cash flow: $17,437/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hampton Bays Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3613530
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,274
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #3788
• State rank: #434 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hampton Bays

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #9894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hampton Bays, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 15,819
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,819
• Household income: $133,918
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 199.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 13% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 467.2466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 16.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+643.5% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $1,145,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Listed $1,195,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-13 Rental Removed $5,000 ONEKEY
• 2024-10-24 Price Changed $5,000 ONEKEY
• 2024-09-25 Listed for Rent $6,000 ONEKEY
• 2024-08-28 Sold (Public Records) $950,000 Public Records
• 2024-07-18 Sold (MLS) $950,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-09 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-11 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-17 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-05 Rental Removed — ONEKEY
• 2023-09-29 Listed $975,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-29 Coming Soon $975,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-03 Listed for Rent — ONEKEY
• 1999-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $154,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $6,121 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.