Caroline Plan · Houston, TX 77532

$241,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,489 sqft · SingleFamily · 78 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Caroline floor plan located in the Indian Springs community! This is a single-story house that spans 1,489 square feet and showcases three bedrooms, two bathrooms, and a two-car garage. As you enter the house, you will notice the brightly lit foyer with vinyl flooring. A coat closet sits adjacent to the entryway of the home, perfectly positioned to welcome guests. Up ahead lies the utility room, which has vinyl flooring and provides space for a washer, dryer, and some light storage. At the end of the foyer is the family room, dining room, and kitchen. The open concept plan of this house allows for optimal space for entertainment or relaxation. Sunlight streams into this area of the house, adorning the entire room with its rays and giving the viewer a sense of peace and comfort as they take in each area of the home. The kitchen is complete with a tall pantry, stainless-steel appliances, and a kitchen island. The two secondary bedrooms and the secondary bathroom can be reached via a miniature hallway branching out from the kitchen. Each bedroom has soft carpet flooring, a bright window, and a tall closet while the secondary bathroom is finished with vinyl flooring, a linen nook, and a tub/shower combo. The primary bedroom can be accessed via the family room and is complete with carpeted floors and two bright windows facing the back of the property. Natural light floods this room as well, adding to the beauty of the room. The bedroom opens to the primary bathr

Key facts

• Open concept plan
• Vinyl flooring
• Linen nook

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT PLAN
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• TALL PANTRY
• VINYL FLOORING
• SOFT CARPET FLOORING
• LINEN NOOK

🏗️ New construction. The $241,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $245,457.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $242k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $30 ($365/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (9.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (9.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL); Crosby H S (math 44% / reading 45%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,937 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1189 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $218,575 (9.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.53%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $245,457
• List price: $241,990
• Delta: -1.41%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1714 Serenity Moon Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,539 (+3%)	1mo	$244,990	$159	92
1738 West Stroker Rd	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-3%)	1mo	$224,990	$155	92
20158 Green Mallard St	0.35mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,535 (+3%)	1mo	$211,990	$138	71
20031 White Dove Trl	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,418 (-5%)	1mo	$254,990	$180	68
20166 Green Mallard St	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,360 (-9%)	1mo	$201,990	$149	66
20159 Green Mallard St	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,360 (-9%)	1mo	$201,990	$149	66
20127 Green Mallard St	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,360 (-9%)	0mo	$181,990	$134	66
20011 White Dove Trl	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,409 (-5%)	1mo	$252,990	$180	63
20066 White Dove Trl	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+8%)	1mo	$199,990	$124	61
20035 White Dove Trl	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+8%)	1mo	$265,990	$166	58
20023 White Dove Trl	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+8%)	1mo	$268,990	$167	57
20050 White Dove Trl	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,273 (-14%)	1mo	$239,990	$189	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-41,096
• Equity at exit: $36,598

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-46,261
• Equity at exit: $21,223

Cash invested: $68,728 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1189
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,186 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,287
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$307 /mo · $3,682/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,147

Max offer price $245,457

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $200	-5% $115	+0% $30	+5% $-54	+10% $-139
Rent	-10% $-142	-5% $-56	+0% $30	+5% $117	+10% $203
Rate	-1.0pp $154	-0.5pp $93	base $30	+0.5pp $-33	+1.0pp $-98

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,364
• Closing costs: $7,364
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20119 Iron Winds St Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,875	$1.32	14d	1	0.20mi
20034 White Dove Dr Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1273	$1,850	$1.45	14d	1	0.49mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $241,990 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $241,990 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $241,990 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $241,990 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $241,990 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $241,990 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $241,990 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $241,990 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $241,990 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $241,990 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $241,990 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $241,990 Active 58 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $241,990 Active 57 DOM
14. 2026-04-04
    listed $241,990 Active 1496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1496 chars)

    Welcome to the Caroline floor plan located in the Indian Springs community! This is a single-story house that spans 1,489 square feet and showcases three bedrooms, two bathrooms, and a two-car garage. As you enter the house, you will notice the brightly lit foyer with vinyl flooring. A coat closet sits adjacent to the entryway of the home, perfectly positioned to welcome guests. Up ahead lies the utility room, which has vinyl flooring and provides space for a washer, dryer, and some light storage. At the end of the foyer is the family room, dining room, and kitchen. The open concept plan of this house allows for optimal space for entertainment or relaxation. Sunlight streams into this area of the house, adorning the entire room with its rays and giving the viewer a sense of peace and comfort as they take in each area of the home. The kitchen is complete with a tall pantry, stainless-steel appliances, and a kitchen island. The two secondary bedrooms and the secondary bathroom can be reached via a miniature hallway branching out from the kitchen. Each bedroom has soft carpet flooring, a bright window, and a tall closet while the secondary bathroom is finished with vinyl flooring, a linen nook, and a tub/shower combo. The primary bedroom can be accessed via the family room and is complete with carpeted floors and two bright windows facing the back of the property. Natural light floods this room as well, adding to the beauty of the room. The bedroom opens to the primary bathr

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,229
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,749
• − Property taxes: −$3,682
• − Insurance: −$1,227
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,098
• − Management: −$2,098
• − Depreciation: −$7,141
• Taxable loss: −$3,767
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$904
• After-tax cash flow: $1,269/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home in the Caroline Plan is in good condition with no major repairs needed. It offers a modern and well-maintained interior with a good curb appeal, making it a solid investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.
• Resale Kitchen backsplash — A backsplash can add visual interest and functionality to the kitchen.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Resale Kitchen backsplash — A backsplash can add visual interest and functionality to the kitchen. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 33,780
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 382.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Listed $241,990 Zillow