4731 Avenue B · St. Augustine, FL 32095

$369,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,394 sqft · Manufactured public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1996 1.58 ac lot $154/sqft · 30% below area Est $528k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice 2 bedroom 2 bath home. Bathrooms remodeled. New AC New Pump. City water. New flooring. Nice large open Kitchen. Property completely fence in wtih solar lock gate opening.

Key facts

• New pump
• Bathrooms remodeled
• New flooring

Tags

• BATHROOMS REMODELED
• NEW AC
• NEW PUMP
• CITY WATER
• NEW FLOORING
• LARGE OPEN KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $369k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-347 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $308k (16.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (31.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $252k (31.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.1% in St. Augustine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Palencia Elementary School (math 82% / reading 80%, grade A+, #95 of 2,144 statewide, top 5%, 781 students, 15% FRL); Sebastian Middle School (math 59% / reading 59%, grade B, #144 of 571 statewide, top 26%, 654 students, 42% FRL); St. Augustine High School (math 54% / reading 62%, grade C, #120 of 667 statewide, top 18%, 1,784 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 461 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($358k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $295k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $252,310 (31.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.03%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $528,221
• List price: $369,000
• Delta: -30.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-85,043
• Equity at exit: $55,019

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-115,195
• Equity at exit: $31,904

Cash invested: $103,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32095

• Home prices YoY: -18.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 461
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,523 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,935
• Tax from tax record: −$251 /mo · $3,012/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $-347

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,962

Max offer price $307,779

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-138	-5% $-242	+0% $-347	+5% $-451	+10% $-555
Rent	-10% $-546	-5% $-446	+0% $-347	+5% $-247	+10% $-147
Rate	-1.0pp $-161	-0.5pp $-253	base $-347	+0.5pp $-442	+1.0pp $-539

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,250
• Closing costs: $11,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
124 Cody St Saint Augustine, FL	4.0	2.0	1861	$2,300	$1.24	25d	1	1.15mi
208 Midway Park Dr Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.0	1822	$2,295	$1.26	15d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $369,000 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $369,000 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $369,000 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $369,000 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $369,000 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $369,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $369,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $369,000 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $375,000 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $375,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $375,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $375,000 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    price $375,000 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $380,000 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $380,000 Active 34 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    price $380,000 175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (175 chars)

    Nice 2 bedroom 2 bath home. Bathrooms remodeled. New AC New Pump. City water. New flooring. Nice large open Kitchen. Property completely fence in wtih solar lock gate opening.

17. 2026-05-15
    status Active 175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (175 chars)

    Nice 2 bedroom 2 bath home. Bathrooms remodeled. New AC New Pump. City water. New flooring. Nice large open Kitchen. Property completely fence in wtih solar lock gate opening.

18. 2026-03-23
    historical 175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (175 chars)

    Nice 2 bedroom 2 bath home. Bathrooms remodeled. New AC New Pump. City water. New flooring. Nice large open Kitchen. Property completely fence in wtih solar lock gate opening.

19. 2026-03-03
    listed $360,000 Active 175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (175 chars)

    Nice 2 bedroom 2 bath home. Bathrooms remodeled. New AC New Pump. City water. New flooring. Nice large open Kitchen. Property completely fence in wtih solar lock gate opening.

20. 2023-03-06
    price $390,000
21. 2022-12-03
    price $360,000
22. 2021-05-26
    soldstatus $295,000
23. 2021-05-24
    soldstatus $295,000 Sold
24. 2021-04-28
    status Pending
25. 2021-04-26
    listed $295,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,012 · $251/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,063 · $255/mo
• Expected delta: +$51/yr (+$4/mo · 1.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,277
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,670
• − Property taxes: −$3,012
• − Insurance: −$1,845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,422
• − Management: −$2,422
• − Depreciation: −$10,735
• Taxable loss: −$10,828
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,599
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,560/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. Augustine

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Johns County · 301,599 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,399
• Household income: $136,038
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 101.0

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 6% Two or more races 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Cuban 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.44%
• Current HPI: 246.0743
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.77%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+28.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $380,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2026-05-15 Relisted — St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2026-03-23 Delisted — St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2026-03-03 Listed $360,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2023-03-06 Price Changed $390,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2022-12-03 Price Changed $360,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2021-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $295,000 Public Records
• 2021-05-24 Sold (MLS) $295,000 realMLS
• 2021-04-28 Pending — realMLS
• 2021-04-26 Listed $295,000 realMLS

Property tax history

+14.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,012 · +13.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.