33163 Gilley Rd · Lillian, AL 36549

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 8 Days on market

Built 2000 0.70 ac lot $144/sqft · 16% above area Est $151k · 16% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.6/30.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.4/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on almost one acre, offering plenty of space to enjoy peaceful country living. The property features a large open yard with mature trees, room for outdoor entertaining, gardening, pets, or parking your boat, RV, or trailers. NO HOA. Inside, you will find a spacious kitchen with abundant cabinet and counter space, and an open layout that flows easily into the main living areas. The split-bedroom floor plan offers privacy. If you are looking for more land and privacy, this property offers a great combination of indoor comfort and outdoor space. Enjoy quiet surroundings, wide-open views, and room to make it your own. Buyer to verify all informa

Key facts

• Outdoor entertaining
• Open yard
• Wide-open views

Tags

• OPEN YARD
• MATURE TREES
• OUTDOOR ENTERTAINING
• SPLIT-BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• QUIET SURROUNDINGS
• WIDE-OPEN VIEWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listing handled by Coastal Luxe Realty Group
• HOA & community: No transfer fees; No community amenities

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electric service: Baldwin EMC
• Home design: One story; Resale property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Other foundation; Built area recorded as 1216 (assessor)
• Exterior features: Rear porch; Less than 1 acre lot; No waterfront; Whole/Full ownership

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); No fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $298 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 4.2% in Lillian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#97 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Elberta Elementary School (math 47% / reading 65%, grade C+, #83 of 627 statewide, top 13%, 884 students, 58% FRL); Elberta Middle School (math 21% / reading 67%, grade D, #42 of 257 statewide, top 17%, 267 students, 63% FRL); Elberta High School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #47 of 305 statewide, top 17%, 784 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 38% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 154 active listings in the ZIP; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $175k implies a 422% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.31%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $151,154
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: 15.78%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
33118 Gilley Rd	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	13mo	$155,000	$127	86

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-9,322
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $16,474
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36549

• Home prices YoY: -7.6%
• Active inventory: 154
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,909 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,625/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $298

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,531

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $419	-5% $359	+0% $298	+5% $238	+10% $177
Rent	-10% $148	-5% $223	+0% $298	+5% $374	+10% $449
Rate	-1.0pp $387	-0.5pp $343	base $298	+0.5pp $253	+1.0pp $207

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $175,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $175,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on marketlisting id $175,000 Active 1 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $175,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $175,000 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 39 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $175,000 Active 38 DOM
18. 2026-04-22
    listed $175,000 Active 776-char remark
19. 2006-12-06
    soldstatus $33,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,903
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,625
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,832
• − Management: −$1,832
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $845
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$203
• After-tax cash flow: $3,378/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Lillian

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #97
• US rank: #11371

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 6,152
• Population (ZIP): 6,152

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Italian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.45%
• Current HPI: 285.5902
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+422.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Delisted — BCAR
• 2026-06-12 Listed $175,000 BCAR
• 2026-04-22 Listed $175,000 BCAR
• 2006-12-06 Sold (Public Records) $33,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $267 · +49.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.