3986 Route 417 · Allegany, NY 14706

$179,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 106 Days on market

Built 1967 2.11 ac lot ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investment Opportunity! This duplex, located in Allegany, NY, sits on just over 2 acres with a shared blacktop driveway. The units are mirror images, each offering 2 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms, with their own carport and balcony. Both apartments feature a wood-burning fireplace, 200 amp electric service, and two electric hot water tanks that are less than five years old. The roof is also under 10 years old. The property is serviced by a shared well and septic for the duplex, and there are two additional lots, each with gas and electric access, as well as a shared well and septic system, providing the potential for additional income.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 1967
• Listed 105 days

Tags

• SHARED BLACKTOP DRIVEWAY
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• 200 AMP ELECTRIC SERVICE
• TWO ELECTRIC HOT WATER TANKS
• ROOF UNDER 10 YEARS OLD
• SHARED WELL AND SEPTIC

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-164 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $151k (16.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (33.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (33.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#395 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Allegany-Limestone Central School District (rural): math 55% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #233 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Allegany-Limestone Elementary School (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B, #675 of 2,108 statewide, top 35%, 464 students, 43% FRL); Allegany-Limestone Middle-High School (math 52% / reading 70%, grade C+, #843 of 1,100 statewide, top 77%, 598 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 128 units permitted in Cattaraugus County in 2024 (21 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Cattaraugus County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $119,069 (33.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.90%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $29,184
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3974 Route 417 Lot #148	0.21mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,036 (-15%)	12mo	$25,000	$24	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $87,493
• Equity at exit: $162,068

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.27×
• Total profit: $265,712
• Equity at exit: $349,506

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14706

• Home prices YoY: 10.5%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,191 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,030/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $-164

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,398

Max offer price $151,006

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-62	-5% $-113	+0% $-164	+5% $-214	+10% $-265
Rent	-10% $-258	-5% $-211	+0% $-164	+5% $-117	+10% $-69
Rate	-1.0pp $-73	-0.5pp $-118	base $-164	+0.5pp $-210	+1.0pp $-258

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $179,900 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $179,900 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $179,900 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   price $179,900 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $184,900 Active 97 DOM
10. 2026-06-12
    days on market $184,900 Active 96 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $184,900 Active 93 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $184,900 Active 92 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $184,900 Active 91 DOM
14. 2026-06-07
    days on market $184,900 Active 90 DOM
15. 2026-06-04
    days on market $184,900 Active 87 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $184,900 Active 86 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $184,900 Active 85 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $184,900 Active 84 DOM
19. 2026-05-04
    price $184,900 640-char remark

    Show marketing remark (640 chars)

    Investment Opportunity! This duplex, located in Allegany, NY, sits on just over 2 acres with a shared blacktop driveway. The units are mirror images, each offering 2 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms, with their own carport and balcony. Both apartments feature a wood-burning fireplace, 200 amp electric service, and two electric hot water tanks that are less than five years old. The roof is also under 10 years old. The property is serviced by a shared well and septic for the duplex, and there are two additional lots, each with gas and electric access, as well as a shared well and septic system, providing the potential for additional income.

20. 2026-03-27
    price $189,900 640-char remark

    Show marketing remark (640 chars)

    Investment Opportunity! This duplex, located in Allegany, NY, sits on just over 2 acres with a shared blacktop driveway. The units are mirror images, each offering 2 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms, with their own carport and balcony. Both apartments feature a wood-burning fireplace, 200 amp electric service, and two electric hot water tanks that are less than five years old. The roof is also under 10 years old. The property is serviced by a shared well and septic for the duplex, and there are two additional lots, each with gas and electric access, as well as a shared well and septic system, providing the potential for additional income.

21. 2026-03-07
    listed $199,900 Active 640-char remark

    Show marketing remark (640 chars)

    Investment Opportunity! This duplex, located in Allegany, NY, sits on just over 2 acres with a shared blacktop driveway. The units are mirror images, each offering 2 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms, with their own carport and balcony. Both apartments feature a wood-burning fireplace, 200 amp electric service, and two electric hot water tanks that are less than five years old. The roof is also under 10 years old. The property is serviced by a shared well and septic for the duplex, and there are two additional lots, each with gas and electric access, as well as a shared well and septic system, providing the potential for additional income.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,030 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,035 · $170/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,005/yr (+$84/mo · 97.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,288
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$1,030
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,143
• − Management: −$1,143
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$5,238
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,257
• After-tax cash flow: $-706/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Allegany-Limestone Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600015
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▲ 17.00%
• Median HH income: $47,850
• Composite: 51.66/100
• National rank: #1696
• State rank: #233 of 590 in NY

Livability — Allegany

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #395
• US rank: #6843

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,118

Population outlook (Cattaraugus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,623 people
• By 2030: 67,751 · -5.4%
• By 2040: 59,488 · -16.9%
• By 2050: 51,601 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 35,025 · -51.1%
• By 2100: 21,243 · -70.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Native American 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cattaraugus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.8) · D 33.6% · R 66.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -32.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.8 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+34.4 2012: R+13.4 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 24.72%
• Current HPI: 259.9141
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-7.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $184,900 UNYREIS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $189,900 UNYREIS
• 2026-03-07 Listed $199,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+21.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,030 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.