20134 Green Mallard St · Houston, TX 77532

$162,440

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,360 sqft · SingleFamily · 28 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $125/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Pima Floor Plan - The first floor of this two-story home is host to a spacious open floorplan that seamlessly connects an inviting family room, elegant dining room and chef-inspired kitchen. Upstairs, there are three bedrooms, including the luxe owner’s suite, which features a restful bedroom, en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Luxe owner's suite
• Open floorplan
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• CHEF-INSPIRED KITCHEN
• LUXE OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• GENEROUS WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association managed by Southern Property Management Group; Monthly association fee of $125

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation
• Construction: Cement siding; Composition roof; Built in 2026
• Exterior features: Back yard fencing; Fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven and electric range; Gas oven and gas range
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen/family room combo; Primary bedroom with private bath; Separate shower and tub/shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $162,440 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $191,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $162k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $272 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $162k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL); Highpoint School East (Crosby) (20 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 50% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1172 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $160,003 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.06%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $191,990
• List price: $162,440
• Delta: -15.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20127 Green Mallard St	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,360 (0%)	0mo	$181,990	$134	99
20159 Green Mallard St	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,360 (0%)	1mo	$201,990	$149	98
20166 Green Mallard St	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,360 (0%)	1mo	$201,990	$149	97
20022 White Dove Trl	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+4%)	1mo	$250,990	$178	84
20031 White Dove Trl	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+4%)	1mo	$254,990	$180	84
20050 White Dove Trl	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,273 (-6%)	1mo	$239,990	$189	82
20011 White Dove Trl	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+4%)	1mo	$252,990	$180	80
20131 Green Mallard St	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,189 (-13%)	1mo	$138,991	$117	78
20235 New Moon Trl	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-5%)	1mo	$439,999	$340	77
1738 West Stroker Rd	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+7%)	1mo	$224,990	$155	72
20158 Green Mallard St	0.03mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,535 (+13%)	1mo	$211,990	$138	71
1714 Serenity Moon Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,539 (+13%)	1mo	$244,990	$159	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-16,995
• Equity at exit: $28,626

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-5,166
• Equity at exit: $16,600

Cash invested: $53,757 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1172
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,181 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,007
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$240 /mo · $2,880/yr
• Insurance: −$80
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $272

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,838

Max offer price $191,990

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $404	-5% $338	+0% $272	+5% $205	+10% $139
Rent	-10% $99	-5% $185	+0% $272	+5% $358	+10% $444
Rate	-1.0pp $368	-0.5pp $320	base $272	+0.5pp $222	+1.0pp $171

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,998
• Closing costs: $5,760
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20034 White Dove Dr Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1273	$1,850	$1.45	13d	1	0.11mi
20119 Iron Winds St Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,875	$1.32	13d	1	0.18mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $125 · $1,500/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-08
   price $162,440 323-char remark
2. 2026-05-07
   price $162,440 507-char remark
3. 2026-05-01
   price $168,090 323-char remark
4. 2026-04-30
   price $168,090 507-char remark
5. 2026-04-30
   price $168,090
6. 2026-04-30
   listed $176,440 Active 507-char remark
7. 2026-04-30
   historical
8. 2026-04-29
   price $176,440
9. 2026-04-29
   listed $201,990 Active
10. 2026-04-28
    listed $176,440 Active 323-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,177
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,754
• − Property taxes: −$2,880
• − Insurance: −$960
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,094
• − Management: −$2,094
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$5,585
• Taxable income: $309
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$74
• After-tax cash flow: $3,184/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2013 two-story home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates that could significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Modern flooring improves aesthetics and functionality
• Both New kitchen appliances — Upgrades kitchen functionality and appeal
• Both New bathroom fixtures — Enhances bathroom functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Modern flooring improves aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Upgrades kitchen functionality and appeal ↑
• Both New bathroom fixtures — Enhances bathroom functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 382.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-19.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $162,440 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $168,090 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $168,090 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $176,440 HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $176,440 HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $201,990 HARMLS