87238 Branch Creek Dr · Yulee, FL 32097

$430,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,557 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 2006 0.29 ac lot Est $629k · 32% under $31/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOVE-IN READY! An immaculate, spacious home that offers beautiful hardwood floors, ceramic tile, 12 ft ceilings, and fresh neutral paint throughout its open floor plan. This gem features over-sized bedrooms, a formal dining room, a breakfast nook, an office, a step-in-pantry, glass cook-top, double wall ovens, and cozy electric fireplace. Weather proof fence surrounds the backyard w/ double gate for the boat. A concrete porch with a bench swing and wooded view really makes it a private oasis. Outdoor security lighting, new kitchen faucet, freshly painted & waxed porches, with new steps. 7 minute drive to Publix, 10 minutes to the movies, shopping, & restaurants.

Key facts

• Kitchen bar
• Formal dining room
• Sunny breakfast nook

Tags

• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• DEDICATED HOME OFFICE
• SPACIOUS LAUNDRY ROOM
• KITCHEN BAR
• WALK IN PANTRY
• SUNNY BREAKFAST NOOK

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with $370 annual fee; Sidewalks in the community

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Water available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story
• Construction: Block construction
• Exterior features: Front porch; Rear porch; Wood fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Double oven; Electric cooktop; Dishwasher; Ice maker
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Ceiling fans; Pantry; Split-bedroom floor plan; Walk-in closets; Electric fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $430k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-802 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $288k (32.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (43.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (43.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.3% in Yulee — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#605 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Nassau (town): math 74% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #4 of 73 in FL (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 601 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 953 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $46k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $43k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Nassau County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$74k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($424k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $253k; list at $430k implies a 70% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $244,940 (43.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.99%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 14.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $629,022
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
87156 Lents Rd	0.20mi	3/2.0	2,580 (+1%)	6mo	$650,000	$252	84
97106 Yorkshire Dr	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,541 (-1%)	0mo	$341,000	$134	77
416 Sandy Bluff Dr	0.59mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,827 (+11%)	2mo	$696,750	$246	44
416 Sandy Bluff Dr #0057	0.61mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,827 (+11%)	2mo	$696,750	$246	44
662 Sandy Bluff Dr #0032	0.64mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,827 (+11%)	0mo	$690,450	$244	43
572 Sandy Bluff Dr #0043	0.66mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,827 (+11%)	0mo	$710,000	$251	42
572 Sandy Bluff Dr	0.67mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,827 (+11%)	0mo	$710,000	$251	42
564 Sandy Bluff Dr #0044	0.66mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,827 (+11%)	1mo	$707,050	$250	42
564 Sandy Bluff Dr	0.68mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,827 (+11%)	1mo	$707,050	$250	41
173 Vista Bluff Ln	0.63mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,883 (+13%)	1mo	$665,200	$231	38
173 Vista Bluff Ln #0010	0.64mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,883 (+13%)	1mo	$665,200	$231	37
97265 Castle Ridge Dr	0.70mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,883 (+13%)	0mo	$625,000	$217	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $182,712
• Equity at exit: $387,378

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.80×
• Total profit: $577,412
• Equity at exit: $835,395

Cash invested: $120,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32097

• Home prices YoY: 19.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 601
• Price-to-rent: 14.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,449 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,255
• Tax from tax record: −$272 /mo · $3,262/yr
• Insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$31
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $-802

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,464

Max offer price $288,338

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-559	-5% $-680	+0% $-802	+5% $-924	+10% $-1,045
Rent	-10% $-995	-5% $-899	+0% $-802	+5% $-705	+10% $-608
Rate	-1.0pp $-585	-0.5pp $-693	base $-802	+0.5pp $-913	+1.0pp $-1,027

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,500
• Closing costs: $12,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
97122 Yorkshire Dr Yulee, FL	4.0	2.0	2522	$2,640	$1.05	6d	1	0.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $31 · $372/yr
• Likely covers: electricsecurity

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $430,000 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $430,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $430,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $430,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $430,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $430,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $430,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $430,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $430,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $430,000 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $430,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $430,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $430,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $430,000 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $430,000 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    listed $430,000 Active
17. 2016-07-28
    soldstatus $253,200
18. 2016-07-26
    soldstatus $253,153 682-char remark

    Show marketing remark (678 chars)

    MOVE-IN READY! An immaculate, spacious home that offers beautiful hardwood floors, ceramic tile, 12 ft ceilings, and fresh neutral paint throughout its open floor plan. This gem features over-sized bedrooms, a formal dining room, a breakfast nook, an office, a step-in-pantry, glass cook-top, double wall ovens, and cozy electric fireplace. Weather proof fence surrounds the backyard w/ double gate for the boat. A concrete porch with a bench swing and wooded view really makes it a private oasis. Outdoor security lighting, new kitchen faucet, freshly painted & waxed porches, with new steps. 7 minute drive to Publix, 10 minutes to the movies, shopping, & restaurants.

19. 2016-07-26
    soldstatus $253,153 678-char remark

    Show marketing remark (678 chars)

    MOVE-IN READY! An immaculate, spacious home that offers beautiful hardwood floors, ceramic tile, 12 ft ceilings, and fresh neutral paint throughout its open floor plan. This gem features over-sized bedrooms, a formal dining room, a breakfast nook, an office, a step-in-pantry, glass cook-top, double wall ovens, and cozy electric fireplace. Weather proof fence surrounds the backyard w/ double gate for the boat. A concrete porch with a bench swing and wooded view really makes it a private oasis. Outdoor security lighting, new kitchen faucet, freshly painted & waxed porches, with new steps. 7 minute drive to Publix, 10 minutes to the movies, shopping, & restaurants.

20. 2016-04-05
    listed $253,153 678-char remark

    Show marketing remark (678 chars)

    MOVE-IN READY! An immaculate, spacious home that offers beautiful hardwood floors, ceramic tile, 12 ft ceilings, and fresh neutral paint throughout its open floor plan. This gem features over-sized bedrooms, a formal dining room, a breakfast nook, an office, a step-in-pantry, glass cook-top, double wall ovens, and cozy electric fireplace. Weather proof fence surrounds the backyard w/ double gate for the boat. A concrete porch with a bench swing and wooded view really makes it a private oasis. Outdoor security lighting, new kitchen faucet, freshly painted & waxed porches, with new steps. 7 minute drive to Publix, 10 minutes to the movies, shopping, & restaurants.

21. 2016-03-28
    listed $253,153 682-char remark

    Show marketing remark (682 chars)

    MOVE-IN READY! An immaculate, spacious home that offers beautiful hardwood floors, ceramic tile, 12 ft ceilings, and fresh neutral paint throughout its open floor plan. This gem features over-sized bedrooms, a formal dining room, a breakfast nook, an office, a step-in-pantry, glass cook-top, double wall ovens, and cozy electric fireplace. Weather proof fence surrounds the backyard w/ double gate for the boat. A concrete porch with a bench swing and wooded view really makes it a private oasis. Outdoor security lighting, new kitchen faucet, freshly painted & waxed porches, with new steps. 7 minute drive to Publix, 10 minutes to the movies, shopping, & restaurants.

22. 2015-09-30
    listed $276,400
23. 2013-06-03
    soldstatus $224,500
24. 2013-05-31
    soldstatus $224,500
25. 2013-01-09
    listed $231,000
26. 2011-05-06
    soldstatus $190,000
27. 2011-04-29
    soldstatus $190,000
28. 2010-11-17
    listed $189,900
29. 2005-11-10
    soldstatus $160,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,262 · $272/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,569 · $297/mo
• Expected delta: +$307/yr (+$26/mo · 9.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,393
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,087
• − Property taxes: −$3,262
• − Insurance: −$2,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,351
• − Management: −$2,351
• − HOA: −$372
• − Depreciation: −$12,509
• Taxable loss: −$17,690
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,245
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,378/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nassau
• NCES district ID: 1201350
• Math proficiency: 74% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,267
• Composite: 59.79/100
• National rank: #899
• State rank: #4 of 73 in FL

Livability — Yulee

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #605
• US rank: #11615

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Yulee, FL
• County: Nassau County · 67,729 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,700
• Household income: $93,161
• Rent vs Own: 19.8% rent · 80.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 404.0

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,419 people
• By 2030: 92,679 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 99,257 · +12.3%
• By 2050: 103,378 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 109,726 · +24.1%
• By 2100: 107,006 · +21.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 9% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.9) · D 26.1% · R 73.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: -43.8pp · 2024: -46.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.9 2020: R+45.9 2016: R+50.2 2012: R+48.6 2008: R+43.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 49.35%
• Current HPI: 301.9299
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.88%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+168.8% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $430,000 realMLS
• 2016-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $253,200 Public Records
• 2016-07-26 Sold (MLS) $253,153 realMLS
• 2016-07-26 Sold (MLS) $253,153 AINCAR
• 2016-04-05 Listed $253,153 realMLS
• 2016-03-28 Listed $253,153 AINCAR
• 2015-09-30 Listed $276,400 AINCAR
• 2013-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $224,500 Public Records
• 2013-05-31 Sold (MLS) $224,500 AINCAR
• 2013-01-09 Listed $231,000 AINCAR
• 2011-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $190,000 Public Records
• 2011-04-29 Sold (MLS) $190,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-11-17 Listed $189,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-11-10 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,262 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.