7233 San Bartolo St #376 · Carlsbad, CA 92011

$369,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,544 sqft · Manufactured · 158 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2013 29 ac lot $240/sqft · at area comps Est $381k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beach Living with a Country Club feeling. This is a 55+ luxury gated community of Lakeshore Gardens, West of the 5 Freeway just blocks to the Ponto Beach and across the street from the Poinsettia Village Shopping Center. Club house offers, ocean views, card rooms, billiards, a library, community rooms to lounge with flat screen televisions and game tables, fire pits, heated pool & spa, gym, ping pong, RV parking & more! Grounds are beautifully landscaped with lakes, trees and greenbelts throughout. Many activities make this active community social, relaxing and fun! This home, built in 2013, is a corner lot, that has a bright open concept floor plan, with granite countertop kitchen and modern appliances, & high ceilings. This is a must see!

Key facts

• Gated community
• Landscaped grounds
• Ocean views

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• OCEAN VIEWS
• HEATED POOL
• LANDSCAPED GROUNDS
• CORNER LOT
• GRANITE COUNTERTOP KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $370k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $370k).
• Recommended offer: $326k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 2.1% in Carlsbad — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#67 in CA, #2,526 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living F.
• Carlsbad Unified (urban): math 68% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #87 of 1,400 in CA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Pacific Rim Elementary (673 students, 10% FRL); Aviara Oaks Middle (1,021 students, 16% FRL); Carlsbad High (2,290 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 16% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 97 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.5% rent growth), your $104k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($326k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $370k implies a 640% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $325,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.38%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $381,068
• List price: $369,900
• Delta: -2.93%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7024 San Bartolo Unit 19 A	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,544 (0%)	2mo	$425,000	$275	93
7313 San Luis St #236	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,548 (+0%)	5mo	$450,000	$291	85
7207 Santa Barbara St #154	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,656 (+7%)	3mo	$513,300	$310	80
7224 San Benito St	0.03mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (+4%)	9mo	$400,000	$250	80
7203 San Luis St #166	0.14mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,536 (-0%)	9mo	$375,000	$244	78
7304 Santa Barbara St #325	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-2%)	9mo	$481,000	$318	78
7106 Santa Cruz #56	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,464 (-5%)	9mo	$390,000	$266	75
7140 Santa Rosa St	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-7%)	6mo	$191,000	$133	75
7018 San Carlos St #60	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-7%)	6mo	$392,000	$272	70
7217 San Luis St #173	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-7%)	10mo	$280,000	$194	70
7311 San Luis St #237	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,359 (-12%)	1mo	$236,550	$174	68
7318 San Luis St	0.27mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-7%)	9mo	$285,000	$198	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.75% appreciation · 3.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $102,396
• Equity at exit: $140,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.79×
• Total profit: $289,052
• Equity at exit: $199,115

Cash invested: $103,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92011

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,807 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$462 /mo · $5,548/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,009
• Net cashflow: $1,241

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,236

Max offer price $369,900

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,497	-5% $1,369	+0% $1,241	+5% $1,113	+10% $985
Rent	-10% $861	-5% $1,051	+0% $1,241	+5% $1,431	+10% $1,621
Rate	-1.0pp $1,427	-0.5pp $1,335	base $1,241	+0.5pp $1,145	+1.0pp $1,048

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,475
• Closing costs: $11,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7290 Ponto Dr Carlsbad, CA	4.0	3.5	1757	$8,395	$4.78	0d	1	0.26mi
7064 Whitewater St Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.5	2050	$8,500	$4.15	46d	1	0.26mi
6923 Whitecap Dr Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1246	$5,250	$4.21	46d	1	0.50mi
6872 Shearwaters Dr Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1246	$4,000	$3.21	1d	1	0.60mi
6910 Peachtree Rd Unit 1546353P Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1399	$6,129	$4.38	19d	1	0.71mi
820 Windcrest Dr Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1404	$5,581	$3.98	20d	1	0.71mi
6790 Embarcadero Ln Carlsbad, CA	1.0–2.0	2.0–2.5	2104	$5,750	$2.73	7d	1	0.83mi
6811 Alderwood Dr Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1292	$3,850	$2.98	46d	1	0.85mi
916 Caminito Estrada Unit B Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1188	$3,650	$3.07	46d	1	1.04mi
1967 N Vulcan Ave Encinitas, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	931	$5,359	$5.76	0d	5	1.17mi
925 Wind Drift Dr Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.5	1110	$3,895	$3.51	46d	1	1.21mi
6555 Sea Gate Rd Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1114	$4,145	$3.72	0d	2	1.25mi
1859 N Vulcan Ave Encinitas, CA	2.0	2.5	1950	$7,000	$3.59	0d	1	1.33mi
1812 Parliament Rd Encinitas, CA	2.0	2.0	1467	$11,200	$7.63	0d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $369,900 Active 158 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $369,900 Active 157 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $369,900 Active 154 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $369,900 Active 153 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $369,900 Active 152 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $369,900 Active 151 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $369,900 Active 149 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $369,900 Active 148 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $369,900 Active 145 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $369,900 Active 144 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $369,900 Active 143 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $369,900 Active 140 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $369,900 Active 139 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $369,900 Active 138 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $369,900 Active 137 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $369,900 Active 136 DOM
17. 2026-01-05
    listed $399,900 Active 769-char remark

    Show marketing remark (769 chars)

    Beach Living with a Country Club feeling. This is a 55+ luxury gated community of Lakeshore Gardens, West of the 5 Freeway just blocks to the Ponto Beach and across the street from the Poinsettia Village Shopping Center. Club house offers, ocean views, card rooms, billiards, a library, community rooms to lounge with flat screen televisions and game tables, fire pits, heated pool & spa, gym, ping pong, RV parking & more! Grounds are beautifully landscaped with lakes, trees and greenbelts throughout. Many activities make this active community social, relaxing and fun! This home, built in 2013, is a corner lot, that has a bright open concept floor plan, with granite countertop kitchen and modern appliances, & high ceilings. This is a must see!

18. 2025-10-15
    historical
19. 2025-06-02
    price $449,000
20. 2025-02-01
    status Active
21. 2025-02-01
    price $459,000
22. 2025-02-01
    historical
23. 2024-09-13
    listed $479,000 Active
24. 2013-07-08
    soldstatus $50,000 Sold
25. 2013-07-08
    soldstatus $50,000
26. 2013-06-05
    status Pending
27. 2013-05-16
    listed $59,000 Active
28. 2013-05-14
    listed $59,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥82°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $57,681
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,720
• − Property taxes: −$5,548
• − Insurance: −$1,850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,614
• − Management: −$4,614
• − Depreciation: −$10,761
• Taxable income: $9,573
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,297
• After-tax cash flow: $12,595/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carlsbad Unified
• NCES district ID: 0607500
• Math proficiency: 68% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $81,200
• Composite: 65.11/100
• National rank: #1068
• State rank: #87 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Carlsbad

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #67
• US rank: #2526

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlsbad, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 114,373
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 23,190
• Household income: $159,235
• Rent vs Own: 36.0% rent · 64.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 714.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 4% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.75%
• Current HPI: 399.8502
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.54%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+577.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-05 Listed $399,900 CRMLS
• 2025-10-15 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-06-02 Price Changed $449,000 CRMLS
• 2025-02-01 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-02-01 Price Changed $459,000 CRMLS
• 2025-02-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-09-13 Listed $479,000 CRMLS
• 2013-07-08 Sold (MLS) $50,000 CRMLS
• 2013-07-08 Sold (MLS) $50,000 SDMLS
• 2013-06-05 Pending — SDMLS
• 2013-05-16 Listed $59,000 SDMLS
• 2013-05-14 Listed $59,000 CRMLS