1210 Hi Stirrup #205 · Horseshoe Bay, TX 78657

$162,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Condo public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1977 $130/sqft · 30% below area Est $233k · 30% under $110/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 28% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located just a chip shot from the picturesque Slick Rock Golf Course clubhouse, this thoughtfully updated condo offers a welcoming blend of comfort and convenience in the heart of Horseshoe Bay. Situated on the second floor, it features recent paint and an inviting living area with an updated vinyl sliding glass door opening to a private balcony—perfect for enjoying the Hill Country breeze or relaxing after a day on the course. The kitchen features updated cabinetry, granite countertops, and modern appliances, while the open layout connecting dining and living areas makes entertaining and everyday living effortless. A dedicated office with built-in shelving off the main hallway adds flexibility for remote work or hobbies. The spacious primary suite is designed for comfort, featuring a private en-suite bath, oversized walk-in closet, and balcony access. A nearby guest bedroom and second full bath offer privacy and convenience for visitors. An assigned carport adds everyday ease. Ideally located near the world-class amenities of Horseshoe Bay Resort—including golf, water activities, dining, and spa services—this property also offers excellent short-term rental potential. Perfect as a full-time residence, weekend retreat, or investment property. Come see what makes this home a standout in the heart of Horseshoe Bay.

Key facts

• Private balcony
• Modern appliances
• Dedicated office

Tags

• PRIVATE BALCONY
• UPDATED CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• MODERN APPLIANCES
• DEDICATED OFFICE
• BUILT-IN SHELVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $162k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $66 ($795/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $162k).
• Recommended offer: $152k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 1.0% in Horseshoe Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#625 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A-, housing A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Llano ISD (town): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #359 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1227 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 121 units permitted in Llano County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Llano County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (0.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($152k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $152,280 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.75%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $232,793
• List price: $162,000
• Delta: -30.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $6,901
• Equity at exit: $54,844

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $41,679
• Equity at exit: $72,528

Cash invested: $45,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78657

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1227
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,628 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$850
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,310/yr
• Insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$110
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $66

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,544

Max offer price $162,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $158	-5% $112	+0% $66	+5% $20	+10% $-25
Rent	-10% $-62	-5% $2	+0% $66	+5% $131	+10% $195
Rate	-1.0pp $148	-0.5pp $107	base $66	+0.5pp $24	+1.0pp $-18

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,500
• Closing costs: $4,860
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1210 Hi Stirrup #209 Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,500	$1.20	45d	1	0.01mi
1206 Hi Stirrup Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,200	$0.96	45d	1	0.02mi
106 Dawn #3 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1088	$1,600	$1.47	24d	1	0.10mi
906 Hi Cir N Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1001	$1,250	$1.25	45d	1	0.45mi
400 Hi There #101 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	1.5	1160	$1,900	$1.64	45d	1	0.55mi
307 Poker Chip Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.5	1160	$1,995	$1.72	24d	1	0.60mi
300 Out Yonder #172 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1321	$1,275	$0.97	45d	1	0.64mi
307 Out Yonder #8 Horseshoe Bay, TX	1.0	1.5	884	$1,599	$1.81	45d	1	0.65mi
412 Short Circuit #3 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1333	$1,650	$1.24	45d	1	0.79mi
400 Green Leaf Unit 319-202 Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1141	$1,349	$1.18	24d	1	0.87mi
400 Green Leaf Horseshoe Bay, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,224	$1.27	24d	2	0.87mi
407 Green Leaf Horseshoe Bay, TX	1.0	1.0	784	$999	$1.27	45d	1	0.90mi
100 Bay Point Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1243	$1,950	$1.57	13d	1	1.02mi
100 Bay Point Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX	1.0	1.0	1070	$1,650	$1.54	45d	1	1.02mi
100 Bay Point Dr #7 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1243	$2,150	$1.73	11d	1	1.02mi
200 Full Moon Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1171	$1,800	$1.54	13d	1	1.05mi
307 Crestview Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.5	1240	$1,800	$1.45	0d	1	1.07mi
104 Cove E #107 Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,500	$2.00	24d	1	1.09mi
101 W Bank #14 Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1344	$3,500	$2.60	45d	1	1.13mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $110 · $1,320/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $162,000 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $162,000 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $162,000 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $162,000 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $162,000 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $162,000 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $162,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $162,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $162,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $162,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $162,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $162,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $162,000 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $162,000 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $162,000 Active 51 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $162,000 Active 50 DOM
17. 2026-04-10
    listed $162,000 Active 1352-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1352 chars)

    Located just a chip shot from the picturesque Slick Rock Golf Course clubhouse, this thoughtfully updated condo offers a welcoming blend of comfort and convenience in the heart of Horseshoe Bay. Situated on the second floor, it features recent paint and an inviting living area with an updated vinyl sliding glass door opening to a private balcony—perfect for enjoying the Hill Country breeze or relaxing after a day on the course. The kitchen features updated cabinetry, granite countertops, and modern appliances, while the open layout connecting dining and living areas makes entertaining and everyday living effortless. A dedicated office with built-in shelving off the main hallway adds flexibility for remote work or hobbies. The spacious primary suite is designed for comfort, featuring a private en-suite bath, oversized walk-in closet, and balcony access. A nearby guest bedroom and second full bath offer privacy and convenience for visitors. An assigned carport adds everyday ease. Ideally located near the world-class amenities of Horseshoe Bay Resort—including golf, water activities, dining, and spa services—this property also offers excellent short-term rental potential. Perfect as a full-time residence, weekend retreat, or investment property. Come see what makes this home a standout in the heart of Horseshoe Bay.

18. 2026-01-02
    price $168,000
19. 2026-01-02
    price
20. 2025-10-14
    listed Active
21. 2023-11-08
    soldstatus
22. 2023-11-06
    soldstatus
23. 2023-11-06
    soldstatus Closed
24. 2023-11-06
    soldstatus Closed
25. 2023-10-27
    status Pending
26. 2023-10-12
    historical Active Under Contract
27. 2023-09-19
    price $179,000
28. 2023-09-19
    price $179,000
29. 2023-09-03
    price $190,000
30. 2023-08-26
    status Active
31. 2023-08-12
    historical
32. 2023-08-11
    price $190,000
33. 2023-07-13
    price $199,000
34. 2023-07-13
    price $199,000
35. 2023-06-02
    listed $179,000
36. 2023-06-02
    listed $225,000 Active
37. 2023-06-02
    listed $225,000 Active
38. 2013-06-10
    soldstatus
39. 2012-04-19
    soldstatus
40. 2011-06-30
    soldstatus
41. 2011-06-24
    soldstatus
42. 2007-11-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,310 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,965 · $247/mo
• Expected delta: +$654/yr (+$55/mo · 28.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 59% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,531
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,075
• − Property taxes: −$2,310
• − Insurance: −$810
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,562
• − Management: −$1,562
• − HOA: −$1,320
• − Depreciation: −$4,713
• Taxable loss: −$1,821
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$437
• After-tax cash flow: $1,232/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Llano ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827810
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,746
• Composite: 35.42/100
• National rank: #4940
• State rank: #359 of 826 in TX

Livability — Horseshoe Bay

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #625
• US rank: #11913

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A- Health & safety B- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Horseshoe Bay, TX
• County: Llano County · 16,310 people
• City population: 7,591
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 7,591
• Household income: $91,452
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 45.0

Population outlook (Llano County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,847 people
• By 2030: 21,350 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 22,281 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 23,173 · +11.2%
• By 2075: 25,526 · +22.4%
• By 2100: 25,866 · +24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Llano

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.9) · D 19.2% · R 80.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -52.2pp · 2024: -60.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.9 2020: R+60.1 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+60.4 2008: R+52.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.95%
• Current HPI: 229.9918
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-28.0% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $162,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-01-02 Price Changed $168,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-01-02 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-10-14 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2023-11-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-11-06 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2023-11-06 Sold (MLS) — HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2023-11-06 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2023-10-27 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2023-10-12 Contingent — Unlock MLS
• 2023-09-19 Price Changed $179,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2023-09-19 Price Changed $179,000 Unlock MLS
• 2023-09-03 Price Changed $190,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2023-08-26 Relisted — HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2023-08-12 Delisted — HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2023-08-11 Price Changed $190,000 Unlock MLS
• 2023-07-13 Price Changed $199,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2023-07-13 Price Changed $199,000 Unlock MLS
• 2023-06-02 Listed $179,000 LERA
• 2023-06-02 Listed $225,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2023-06-02 Listed $225,000 Unlock MLS
• 2013-06-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-04-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-06-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-06-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-11-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,310 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.