4011 Windy Whisper Dr · Brookshire, TX 77423

$324,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,260 sqft · SingleFamily · 45 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $325k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The desirable Silverbell floor plan offers an expansive main-floor layout, centered around an airy great room. A dining area and a well-equipped kitchen with a center island are steps away and make for the perfect place to entertain. The floor also features a luxurious primary suite, complete with walk-in shower, dual vanities, and a spacious walk-in closet. The upper floor features three bedrooms and a roomy loft.

Key facts

• Primary suite
• Dining area
• Walk-in shower

Tags

• GREAT ROOM
• DINING AREA
• WELL-EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• CENTER ISLAND
• PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing provided by Zillow
• Financial info: List price reported at $324,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family home (Spec construction), plan name: SILVERBELL; Active listing
• Exterior features: Located at 4011 Windy Whisper Dr, Brookshire, TX 77423

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open living area (2,260 total living area reported)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $487 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $325k).
• Recommended offer: $315k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 5.9% in Brookshire — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#960 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Huggins El (math 61% / reading 63%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 893 students, 23% FRL); Briscoe J H (math 59% / reading 60%, grade B, #166 of 1,662 statewide, top 11%, 1,914 students, 38% FRL); Foster H S (math 64% / reading 74%, grade B, #141 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 2,388 students, 34% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lamar CISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1014 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,459/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($84k/yr) (locally 20% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $315,153 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.42%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $325,440
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4006 Crowning Ct	0.07mi	4/2.5	2,260 (0%)	1mo	$324,900	$144	96
4022 Crowning Ct	0.09mi	4/2.5	2,260 (0%)	1mo	$324,900	$144	95
4023 Crowning Ct	0.08mi	4/2.5	2,260 (0%)	2mo	$324,900	$144	95
3930 Windy Whisper Dr	0.06mi	4/2.5	2,260 (0%)	4mo	$304,900	$135	94
32855 Laureate Dr	0.13mi	4/2.5	2,260 (0%)	3mo	$324,900	$144	92
32814 Laureate Dr	0.06mi	4/2.5	2,003 (-11%)	1mo	$299,900	$150	78
4007 Crowning Ct	0.05mi	4/2.5	2,003 (-11%)	3mo	$321,900	$161	76
4019 Crowning Ct	0.07mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,439 (+8%)	1mo	$334,900	$137	76
4014 Crowning Ct	0.08mi	4/2.5	2,003 (-11%)	3mo	$307,900	$154	75
4018 Crowning Ct	0.09mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,439 (+8%)	3mo	$349,900	$143	74
32851 Laureate Dr	0.13mi	4/2.5	2,003 (-11%)	3mo	$309,900	$155	73
32859 Laureate Dr	0.14mi	4/2.5	2,003 (-11%)	3mo	$299,900	$150	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-31,713
• Equity at exit: $48,444

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-26,634
• Equity at exit: $28,091

Cash invested: $90,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77423

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1014
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,459 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$406 /mo · $4,874/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$726
• Net cashflow: $487

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,842

Max offer price $324,900

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $712	-5% $599	+0% $487	+5% $375	+10% $262
Rent	-10% $214	-5% $350	+0% $487	+5% $624	+10% $760
Rate	-1.0pp $651	-0.5pp $570	base $487	+0.5pp $403	+1.0pp $317

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,225
• Closing costs: $9,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5222 Wyatt James Ln Brookshire, TX	4.0	2.5	2487	$3,250	$1.31	14d	1	0.77mi
33002 Franklin Brooks Dr Pattison, TX	4.0	3.5	3255	$4,385	$1.35	0d	1	0.98mi
5462 Grand View Dr Unit 1568482P Pattison, TX	5.0	3.5	2992	$3,732	$1.25	0d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $324,900 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $324,900 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $324,900 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $324,900 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $324,900 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $324,900 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $324,900 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $324,900 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $324,900 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $324,900 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $324,900 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $324,900 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $324,900 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    remarks 418-char remark
15. 2026-06-01
    listed $324,900 Active 24 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,504
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,199
• − Property taxes: −$4,874
• − Insurance: −$1,624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,320
• − Management: −$3,320
• − Depreciation: −$9,452
• Taxable income: $714
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$171
• After-tax cash flow: $5,673/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Brookshire

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #960
• US rank: #17059

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Waller County · 18,767 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,767
• Household income: $84,490
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 20.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
• Current HPI: 204.8709
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B