219 Merry Ln · Palmetto, FL 34221

$125,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 750 sqft · Manufactured public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1995

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This cozy retreat is turnkey furnished. It is on a canal which extends to the Manatee River. Possible to put a boat ramp. Nice retirement commnity with many ammenities.

Key facts

• Off side parking
• New water heater
• Stand in shower

Tags

• WATERFRONT
• OFF SIDE PARKING
• ROOF OVER REPLACED
• CENTRAL AC AND HEAT PUMP
• NEW WATER HEATER
• STAND IN SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $145 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 2.0% in Palmetto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#346 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1160 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $125k implies a 117% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,125 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.61%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $70,500
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
290 Floramana Ln Unit A73	0.10mi	2/2.0	756 (+1%)	13mo	$70,900	$94	80
238 Palm Ln	0.09mi	2/2.0	804 (+7%)	7mo	$137,500	$171	74
243 Palm Ln	0.09mi	2/2.0	820 (+9%)	14mo	$57,500	$70	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-15,977
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-21,188
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1160
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,795 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,665/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $145

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,611

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
522 7th Ave W Unit 3 Palmetto, FL	1.0	1.0	535	$1,195	$2.23	23d	1	0.40mi
501 11th St W Palmetto, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,340	$1.58	1d	1	0.54mi
900 9th Ave E Unit 180 Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	15d	1	0.61mi
507 10th Ave W Palmetto, FL	2.0	1.0	737	$1,495	$2.03	15d	1	0.67mi
516 12th St W Unit A Palmetto, FL	2.0	1.0	612	$1,350	$2.21	15d	1	0.71mi
518 12th St W Palmetto, FL	2.0	1.0	612	$1,350	$2.21	15d	1	0.71mi
1229 11th Ave W Palmetto, FL	3.0	1.0	1072	$1,800	$1.68	1d	1	1.00mi
210 3rd St W #8402 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,600	$2.60	23d	1	1.04mi
210 3rd St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1094	$1,954	$1.79	1d	1	1.04mi
1809 5th Ave W Palmetto, FL	3.0	1.0	962	$1,895	$1.97	23d	1	1.08mi
606 3rd Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1090	$1,768	$1.62	1d	23	1.13mi
1213 15th St W Palmetto, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	23d	1	1.17mi
515 1st Ave E Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1104	$2,275	$2.06	23d	1	1.22mi
102 Manatee Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1035	$1,962	$1.90	1d	14	1.29mi
408 3rd Ave E Unit A Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,995	$2.00	3d	1	1.33mi
1715 9th St W Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1104	$2,000	$1.81	23d	1	1.34mi
719 23rd St E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1060	$1,800	$1.70	10d	1	1.40mi
900 21st St E Palmetto, FL	2.0–3.0	1.0	800	$1,495	$1.87	23d	1	1.41mi
1607 18th St E Palmetto, FL	3.0	1.0	916	$1,950	$2.13	23d	1	1.42mi
1161 3rd Ave E Bradenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1088	$2,652	$2.44	1d	21	1.47mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-26
    listed $125,000 Active
16. 2016-03-21
    soldstatus $57,500
17. 2013-06-04
    soldstatus $51,000
18. 2004-12-06
    soldstatus $42,000 168-char remark

    Show marketing remark (168 chars)

    This cozy retreat is turnkey furnished. It is on a canal which extends to the Manatee River. Possible to put a boat ramp. Nice retirement commnity with many ammenities.

19. 2004-10-01
    listed $44,000 168-char remark

    Show marketing remark (168 chars)

    This cozy retreat is turnkey furnished. It is on a canal which extends to the Manatee River. Possible to put a boat ramp. Nice retirement commnity with many ammenities.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,665 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,665 · $139/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 5 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,544
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,665
• − Insurance: −$5,744
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,723
• − Management: −$1,723
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $50
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$12
• After-tax cash flow: $1,733/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palmetto

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #5695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palmetto, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1193.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+184.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $125,000 FSBO.com
• 2016-03-21 Sold (Public Records) $57,500 Public Records
• 2013-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records
• 2004-12-06 Sold (MLS) $42,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-10-01 Listed $44,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,665 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.