51 Lilac St · Buffalo, NY 14220

$219,900

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,004 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1930 4,320 sqft lot Est $202k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.6/30.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• ARV discount +3.6/15.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Welcome to 51 Lilac St in desirable South Buffalo. This 2 family home is recently updated with new flooring, paint, bathroom vanities and much more. This unique home offers 2 apartments - a 3/1 and a 1/1. Additionally, you will find able storage space in both the garage and basement. The garage is a two car garage offering great protection from the elements and off street parking. There is a small yard for outside activities - additionally nearby parks and amenities offer great conveniences. Low South Buffalo Taxes.

Key facts

• Recently updated
• Able storage space
• New flooring

Tags

• RECENTLY UPDATED
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW PAINT
• BATHROOM VANITIES
• TWO CAR GARAGE
• ABLE STORAGE SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $376 ($5k/yr) — positive. Per door: $188/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $220k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.6%/yr); 136 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.6% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $220k implies a 340% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.32%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $202,404
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
39 Kimmel Ave	0.28mi	6/2.0 (+1)	2,016 (+1%)	4mo	$152,000	$75	78
331 Mystic St	0.20mi	6/2.0 (+1)	2,174 (+8%)	5mo	$111,500	$51	67
35 Kimmel Ave	0.28mi	6/2.0 (+1)	2,218 (+11%)	2mo	$225,000	$101	62
39 Trowbridge St	0.40mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,157 (+8%)	9mo	$180,000	$83	56
116 Melrose St	0.73mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,001 (-0%)	8mo	$223,000	$111	54
89 Melrose St	0.72mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,038 (+2%)	7mo	$318,000	$156	53
110 Trowbridge St	0.37mi	6/2.0 (+1)	2,264 (+13%)	4mo	$180,000	$80	53
1726 S Park Ave	0.43mi	6/2.0 (+1)	2,232 (+11%)	6mo	$77,500	$35	51
889 Tifft St	0.70mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,112 (+5%)	4mo	$210,000	$99	50
28 Paul Pl	0.74mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,144 (+7%)	0mo	$230,000	$107	49
81 Melrose St	0.71mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,116 (+6%)	5mo	$264,000	$125	48
29 Melvin Pl	0.60mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,802 (-10%)	8mo	$294,500	$163	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-8
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.36×
• Total profit: $83,632
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14220

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 7.6%
• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 15.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,399 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$275 /mo · $3,298/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $376

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,924

Max offer price $219,900

Occupancy floor 79%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,400
Total (2 units)			$2,399

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
901 S Park Ave Unit Lower Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1729	$1,600	$0.93	24d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-31
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-16
   listed $219,900 Active
3. 2024-04-24
   soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,788
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$3,298
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,303
• − Management: −$2,303
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable income: $1,069
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$257
• After-tax cash flow: $4,250/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 24,428
• Household income: $70,963
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 602.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 1% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -146.29%
• Current HPI: 402.5053
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.62%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+339.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $219,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-04-24 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $286 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.